Nice trade, Mike.

Thanks very much for the post. Sorry to give you a hard time below because we love ALL your posts and you! 

My deal here is to make sure people can clearly see things that are not obvious or that are misleading.

If your system is based on signals that include the RSI crossing ABOVE the 50 mark, as well as the 23/30 EMA which it did on June 14 and caused you to go long after that, then why are you completely violating the same signal/system now?

Late on June 22/early June 23, your system and signals were screaming selling about as strong as you can get and you should be short right now with a profit from THAT signal.

Buying at the level you suggest now, would blatantly violate your system in every way.

The RSI is well below 50 and falling with no chance to recover at a few c below this, where you are wanting to buy. 

The price bars are WAY below the 23/30 EMA, which is bearish for your system and those EMAs did an extremely bearish cross over on June 23.

What am I missing about your interpretation that justifies going long here?

I am for going long here based purely on the weather in a weather market but it means completely ignoring the screaming short signal your system sent out on Friday when it reacted 12 hours AFTER the weather changed will be in for awhile AFTER the weather changes by design.

When the weather doesn't change a system like yours will do extremely well. It tipped you off on the bull move up earlier this month. 

If the weather stayed bearish, like it was Friday your system would make a killing to the downside( you should be short right now, BTW).

The only reason that you can go back and identify a top on June 21/22, despite the much stronger but unconfirmed top signal on June 19, which did not verify is that the weather changed to bearish on the 19th but then the crop report came out extremely bullish on the 20th, along with the weather turning bullish then ........so instead of a top, it was a bull flag, confirmed when we broke out above the old high on the 21st.

Your system would have tricked you into covering your long on the 19th/20th with a plunging RSI and price below the 23 EMA but not quite below the 30 EMA. 

Since rains were not very productive this weekend in key areas, we will likely open higher tonight as long as the forecast doesn't add MORE rain.

Where we go from there is up to the weather models and I'm not smart enough in a pattern like this to tell you what the changes will be this week because the atmosphere will change enough to make it impossible to predict.

Some patterns are very predictable. This one is not.

Addition:  Thanks for clarifying and adding the information about the daily chart still being bullish and the basis for re entry.

Though I'm still puzzled on the re entry with a mega negative 60 minute chart.

Regardless, your suggestion for entering long again looks like another potential winner if the weather turns drier again, Mike!

MetMike

"Perhaps" Mikeempt is showing an HOURLY dipping below 50 into low 20s as a BUY signal.

"Perhaps" one stays long so long as HOURLY signal (RSI) stays above 50, sells at/near 50, and reenters in low 20s RSI.

I assume his "daily" is still way over 50

I agree with you that rain was less than what caused the selloff.  BUY A DIP!!  (But I think we start higher)

thanks tjc!

I was thinking the same thing about the daily chart still being bullish and looking to buy dips but this 60 minute chart is mega bearish.

Also agree that we should start higher tonight from less than hoped for rains.

Yesterday would have been a good time to buy with expectations of that. 

                Re: Re:  Crop conditiions+more 6-20-23            

                        By metmike - June 24, 2023, 1:35 p.m.            

          I predict that weekend rains will be disappointing in much of the key flash drought areas.

The ground is too dry and dewpoints too low to generate the type of 1 inch+ widespread rains we need with a fast moving cold front like this.

The main hope is for a skinny unbroken line of heavy storms can be very extensive from north to south and hit alot of areas with .5+ inch rains.

The upper level support with this system is incredible for June, so thats a huge plus. 

  IF, IF grains are considerably higher in the overnight trade, I may sell, especially soy meal.  Beans have plenty of time to get "timely" rain.

  MetMike, what time next model runs (like 3am est?)

tjc,

Models are coming out around the clock. The GEFS comes out 4 times a day.

The most important Euro Ensemble comes out  2 times a day around 1:30 am/1:30pm and takes around an hour to complete. 

I'm not advising what to do because it could change overnight on the EE model when I'm sleeping or can't post.

Although if I do something, I WON'T be sleeping. There are several other important elements impacting the grains, some I'm clueless about but the ones below mostly relate to the weather. 

Bullish factors

1. Disappointing rains

2. Crop ratings WILL drop on Monday

3. Next rain chance not for several days

4. Less rain on the models vs Friday(but part of that was from this system)

Bearish factors.

1. Extended still has decent rains

2. Seasonals

3. Top formation last week

Good luck!

I say a higher open for new crop C and maybe S.

  TY for model run information

  And, as always, a complete summary of "facts"

I am particularly concerned grains will run out of bullish weather---a bull needs new/more, it must 'eat', or down it goes, then it rains! 

Holy smokes!

The higher open lasted a few seconds and met massive one sided, aggressive selling where they were hitting all the bids.

CZ traded 15,000 contracts the first 5 minutes!

We spiked to -12c but have recovered to -6c at 8 minutes of trading.

  With the quick drop, will look to buy on new lows.  Perhaps wait until after the reopen in morning.

Question?

With 15000 contracts trades do you think that was a fund getting out of longs at profit?

I don't know that it matters.

I posted a Daily chart on the 18th as a bullish set up. I posted the hourly chart  today explaing how I used the hourly chart to time the daily trend. I posted where I got in and out. I took the profit on the bullsh side,never went short,nerever suggest going short. I posted a support level suggesting maye that could hold and enter long agin in the future.

  Yes, I thought you used a combination of the two methods.

  May I please impose upon you an updated hourly?  "Should" potentially show a potential buy!  Look at area near 568

OK, thanks Mike!

Thanks for adding that to your graph to clarify that for us!!!

Not only a great trade being long and covering for a profit but a potentiallygreat suggestion on re entry…..as long as the weather forecast doesn’t get wetter.

Since you are basing the trade on the daily chart, can you post the daily chart for us?

tjc,

Corn has clawed all the way back to unch after the shocking 17c spike down from the higher open in just a couple of minutes. Now down a tad.

So I doubt we'll get to 568 but I was stunned at the action the first few minutes......so who knows. 

cutworm,

I'm not sure who was doing all that early selling. Your guess that it might be the funds is likely right because of the volume.

Maybe traders buying the open had to cover quickly, especially when we took out Friday's lows in that first minute, just seconds after the higher open.

For sure we hit tons of sell stops(which become tons of  market orders to hit the bids-which was happening).

That was nuts!

Beans have also come back to make new highs for the session with SX in the plus column.

This was the last 18z GEFS.  Around 2 inches the next 2 weeks in most places. The EE is not this wet with more like 1.5 inches.

With the flash drought and some heat, the EE solution  will only be enough rain to keep ratings from falling much in early July. We need more rain than this to stabilize the crop where it is after the drop we see on tomorrows ratings.  if the GEFS verifies, that will happen.

WE GOT 0,66" THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING, WE GOT A SURPRISE HEFTY STORM & WOUND UP WITH A TOTAL OF 1.29" OF RAIN FOR THE DAY.  MORE ON THE WAY OVERNITE.

Mike,

What's the risk level on the new long you suggested from 582?

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/96653/

 tjc,

Are you long from 568/new lows, as you suggested Sunday Night/yesterday morning?

The weather turned even more bearish with additional  forecast rains overnight.

Corrected link below:

                Re: Re: Re: Re: Crop conditions+more 6-26-23