Analysts peg June 1 stocks of U.S. #corn, #soybeans & #wheat below the June 1, 2022 levels but above 2021 in the case of corn/soy. June 1 wheat stocks (which are also the 2022/23 ending stocks) would be the lowest for the date since 2014.
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The trade is looking for slightly smaller U.S. #wheat plantings versus March, including both winter and spring varieties.
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Analysts see U.S. #cotton acres shrinking slightly from the March estimate (and 19% from 2022), though #sorghum plantings are expected to grow from intentions.
OK, this is what's impacting the market.the planted acres numbers below.
Holy Moly! Look at how high the number is for corn acres and how low the number is for bean acres!!!!
WOW!
-4 M aces on the beans vs trade est. That must be close to a record miss by the trade average!!!!
Dry weather got the corn planters out early in record numbers! You can also drill corn down much deeper than beans to try to hit moisture.
Then, it was so dry that producers stopped planting beans in many places in May/early June (which can't be punched down as deep to reach moisture as corn)
U.S. #corn acres land WAY above expectations, #soybeans WAY below:
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By mcfarm - June 13, 2023, 4:04 p.m.
with the bean co so tight a couple bu reduction is huge. We got kissed by a rain sunday, guess what, by today that rain is gone totally swallowed up by just how dry it was. It would not take much to reduce a 52bu/a gov prediction. I have seen and heard all spring about the slow pace of bean germination and emergance and can verify it was really slow in these parts. Good chance of rain today has produced squat. On the bright side August can make or break a bean crop easily
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Re: Re: Crop conditiions 6-12-23
By metmike - June 13, 2023, 5:10 p.m.
mcfarm,
Soybean emergence is 86% vs the average of 70% nationally.
In Indiana, 90% vs 71%.
https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog2323.txt
I completely understand your point though that beans need moisture to germinate and will explain it for others.
You know this but non producers probably don't
Corn can be planted deeper than beans to reach soil moisture for germination when the top layer is bone dry.
Corn is usually planted first and this year, we still had decent soil moisture in most places during early corn planting, so germination was pretty good.
But this flash drought hit the past 30+ days when much of the soybean planting was occurring and moisture in the top layers for germinating completely dried up.
Planting into Dry Soil
https://www.dekalbasgrowdeltapine.com/en-us/agronomy/planting-dry-soil.html
The crop condition report doesn't indicate any emergence issues but a flash drought over such a huge area in May/early June surely would do that. Note that on the first page above.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/96190/
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Re: Re: Re: Crop conditiions 6-12-23
By cutworm - June 13, 2023, 5:50 p.m.
Here on my farm all fields are emerged in the report. The report is basically a drive by report (sighting made by FSA people) of an estimated number of acres showing plants expressed as a % of acres.
But the # of plants / acre is normally what farmers mean when they talk about poor emergence. For instance on 40 acres here we planted 140,000 seed hoping for 130,000 plants. Recent counts are about 75,000 to 82,000 this is considered to be poor emergence. Some say 80,000 is enough. I disagree. I think that the top yield is gone. Other fields are showing 130,000 ish populations.
Total U.S. #wheat acres land close to expectations, but winter wheat was on the low side and spring wheat was slightly above the range of trade guesses. Durum wheat came in well below the range.
SX +80c, Corn -22c in June on the same day at the exact same time. Don't remember that ever happening in over 3 decades of following grain prices every day.
Historic day for grain trading but maybe it happened before a couple of times and my faulty memory doesn't recall or before my time.
Anybody else know of something MORE extreme?
Not lock limit ups or downs with them moving in tandem but going in the opposite direction by so much so quickly?
SX +80c, CZ -30c WOW!
U.S. #corn acres are pegged at 94.1 million, a 10-year high and up 2.3% from the March survey. Modest gains in many top states added to the stronger-than-expected area.
U.S. #soybeans lost 4 million acres between the March and June area survey, and most top states were contributors. In recent years, a March-June reduction like this had been seen in only 2019 when planting was severely delayed by weather.
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Here's planting progress for every year since 2007 where U.S. #soybean planted acres were lower in the June survey versus March.
