Previous weeks:
Crop conditions+ more 7-3-23
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/96964/
Corn soy divergence
16 responses
Started by coffeeclotch - June 30, 2023, 7:53 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/96891/
USDA June 30, 2023
8 responses |
Started by metmike - June 29, 2023, 2:28 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/96833/
Crop conditions+more 6-26-23
33 responses |
Started by metmike - June 26, 2023, 12:36 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/96705/
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USDA crop condition report 7-10-23
https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog2723.txt
Corn improves %, very unusual for this time of year!
U.S. #corn conditions jump to 55% good/excellent (+4 pts), #soybeans rise 1 pt but spring #wheat falls 1 pt. Winter wheat harvest continues at a slow pace.
U.S. #corn conditions jump to 55% good/exc from 51% last week - a rare degree of improvement for this time of year. That was supported by unchanged or better conditions versus last week across top producing states.
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#Soybeans improved slightly less than expected but very important jumps were observed in Illinois and Nebraska. 51% good/exc is the same as two weeks ago.
1. Rains the past 7 days % of average, go to link for actual amounts
2. Rains the past 14 days (bowyer farms W/C Illinois got 7+ inches. metmike in SW Indiana got 6.5 inches.
Would love to see other rain reports
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
RIGHT NOW ~ THE WEATHER STATION 1/4 MILE FROM ME IS OFF LINE.
I DUMPED MY GAUGE, BUT... I KNOW WE GOT OVER 2" THE PAST 2 WEEKS
THE BEAN FIELD ACROSS THE ROAD FROM ME? UT LOOKS LIKE IT WAS PLANED 2 WEEKS AGO! THE DIRT IS VISIBLE...REALLY VISIBLE. THE PLANTS ARE MAYBE 4" TALL ~ 1/2 OF THE LEAVES ARE YELLOW ~ REALLY YELLOW.!
I80 and Il 71
Beautiful rains 3 separate events .6 .8 .8 3/4 days apart Not a drop wasted Semi-lush!
All beans 3 different fields all have (finally) canopied the rows Looks good. (Beans are a "weed"-- cant kill them until late August.)
Local corn tasseling. Corn looks good, perhaps 'short', but fine crop coming.
TWO weeks ago, MUCH worse for both crops
Thanks for those reports, tjc and jean!
The area of the Midwest with extreme moisture deficits has been shrinking a great deal over the past 2 weeks.
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
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Updated daily below:
https://mrcc.purdue.edu/cliwatch/watch.htm#curMonths
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
Huge expansion of drought in the Midwest recently is SHRINKING but still very dry subsurface moisture.
Drought monitor previous years: You can see the natural La Niña, (cold water-in the tropical Pacific)causing the drought! Starting in 2020, then worsening for 2+ years!
Comprehensive weather page:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
Comments on tallpines thread:
Updates on tallpines thread:
How about subsoil moisture readings? You know, drought and all...
We stopped getting progressively "worse", now we'll see if Mother nature blesses us with some bushels
Last month was the U.S. Midwest's 5th driest June since 1895 and the driest since 1988, though temperatures were close to normal, only slightly warm. 2012 and 2022 are the closest recent examples, though they were warmer and not as dry.
metmike: Note that the HOTTEST Junes were 1933, then 1934.
The driest Junes were 1988, 1933 and 1936.
The hottest/driest July's were in the 1930's with 1936 standing out easily as #1.
The cluster of 4 years around 2012-2022-2023 includes 1913, 1922, 1959 & 1963 - so nothing recent for comparison. BTW, this is the "Midwest" region per the climate data. It's not the same region USDA uses to approximate the corn/soy belt. That's here: https://ers.usda.gov/webdocs/outlooks/36651/39297_fds-13g-01.pdf?v=737
The USDA gave us another big surprise............this time in the opposite direction of the bullish, stunning shocker just 2 weeks ago........bearish for beans this time!
USDA July 12, 2023
Started by metmike - July 11, 2023, 3:27 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/97086/
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My concern has been for the Upper Midwest later this month. If this verifies, the weather "could" turn bullish.
However, the overnight models were cooler and that lessens the threat to the dry weather:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83852
All the comprehensive weather:
Latest weather: Leaning bullish! Too dry northwest half of the belt
Latest weather on tallpines thread:
Even more bullish than yesterday with less rain
Latest weather updates and tons more on tallpines thread:
Was more true midway thru Thursday's session when we were trading around $13.50. Fund positioning is always good to consider when comparing prices in past years. Their early July net longs in #soybeans have been similar for four years now.
July 13: CBOT Nov #soybeans surged over 3% to $13.69-3/4 per bu on sinking dollar, weather uncertainties, rallying crude, bargain-buying, etc. Despite huge variation in the last couple years, Nov beans all (kind of) converge on this day: 7/13/22 $13.50, 7/13/21 $13.52.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/97234/#97243
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Iowa had a record #corn yield (204 bu/acre) in 2021. Drought coverage is wider now versus 2021, though subsoil moisture has tracked similarly. Of course this is forward-weather dependent, but do you think Iowa could still be in the running for a record in 2023? Why or why not?
