KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Tuesday, July 11, 2023  

6:00 AM ET. June NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism

                       Small Business Idx (previous 89.4)

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +0.6%)

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +0.7%)

10:00 AM ET. July IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index

                       Economic Optimism Idx (previous 41.7)

                       6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 34.5)

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -4.4M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.6M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.6M)

Wednesday, July 12, 2023  

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

                       Composite Idx (previous 206.5)

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -4.4%)

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 162.4)

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -4.6%)

                       Refinance Idx (previous 421.3)

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -4.1%)

8:30 AM ET. June CPI

                       CPI, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

                       Core CPI, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -3.6%)

                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous -0.1%)

                       CPI, Y/Y% (previous +4.0%)

                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (previous +5.3%)

8:30 AM ET. June Real Earnings

10:00 AM ET. June Online Help Wanted Index

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 452.182M)

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.508M)

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 219.456M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.549M)

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 113.366M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.045M)

                       Refinery Usage (previous 91.1%)

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.235M)

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.929M)

12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)

                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)

                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)

                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)

                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)

2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book

Thursday, July 13, 2023  

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

                       Jobless Claims (previous 248K)

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +12K)

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1720000)

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -13K)

8:30 AM ET. June PPI

                       PPI, M/M% (previous -0.3%)

                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

                       Personal Consumption (previous -0.4%)

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf)

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf)

2:00 PM ET. June Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the U.S. Government

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight and set the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the June 26^th low crossing at 14,853.50 would confirm that a double top has been posted. If September renews this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 15,957.86 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June 16^th high crossing at 15,475.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 15,957.86. First support is the June 26^th low crossing at 14,853.50. Second support is the June 6^th low crossing at 14,420.00.  

The September S&P 500 was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off the June 30^th high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the June 26^th low crossing at 4368.50 would confirm that a double top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2022 decline crossing at 4505.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 4498.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022 decline crossing at 4505.40. First support is the June 26^th low crossing at 4368.50. Second support is the June 8^th low crossing at 4305.75.

INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"

INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above 20-day moving average crossing at 126-19 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes  the decline off April's high, the March 22^nd low on the continuation chart crossing at 122-22 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 125-22. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 126-19. First support is Monday's low crossing at 122-30. Second support is the March 22^nd low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 122-22.  

September T-notes were slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.139 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, the October-2022 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 108.265 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 111.243. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.139. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 110.050. Second support is the October-2022 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 108.265.

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

ENERGIES:Augustcrude oil was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off the June 28^th low, the June 5^th high crossing at $75.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $70.56 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $74.15. Second resistance is the June 5^th high crossing at $75.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $70.56. Second support is the June 28^th low crossing at $67.05.    

August heating oil was slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading set sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 2.6107 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.3838 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 2.5830. Second resistance isthe 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 2.6107. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4377. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.3838.    

August unleaded gas was higher overnight and working on a possible inside day. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $2.6394 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.4543 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $2.5766. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $2.6394. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5049. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.4543.        

August natural gas was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off June's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.193 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.559 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the June 26^th high crossing at 2.936. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.193. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.559. Second support is the June 1^st low crossing at 2.244.

CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"

CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, May's low crossing at $100.340 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $102.475 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $102.475. Second resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $103.275. First support is the overnight low crossing at $101.345. Second support is May's low crossing at $100.340.

The September Euro was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $1.11710 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.08715 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the June 22^nd high crossing at $1.10615. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $1.11710. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.08715. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.07025.

The September British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rally off the June 29^th low. Overnight trading and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 1.3253 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2735 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 22^nd high crossing at 1.2874. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 1.3253. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2735. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2600.        

The September Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 1.14920 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 30^th low crossing at 1.11790 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.14320. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1.14920. First support is the June 30^th low crossing at 1.11790. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.10920.  

The September Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $75.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.84 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $76.28. Second resistance is the September-12^th -2022 high crossing at $77.11. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.84. Second support is the June 5^th low crossing at $74.45.

The September Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.072858 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off the March's high, the October 21^st -2022 low crossing at 0.069270 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.072858. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 0.073430. First support is the May 30^th low crossing at 0.069755. Second support is the October 21^st -2022 low crossing at 0.069270. 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"

Precious Metals: Augustgold was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1939.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August resumes the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-May rally crossing at $1892.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1939.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1980.30. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-May rally crossing at $1892.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-May rally crossing at $1842.60.  

September silver was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $23.364 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. If July resumes the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $21.982 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $23.364. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $24.091. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at 21.982. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at 21.233.    

September copper was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.8125 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off the June 22^nd high, the May 31^st low crossing at 3.6380 is the next downside target. First resistance the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.8125. Second resistance is the June 22^nd high crossing at 3.9640. First support is the June 29^th low crossing at 3.6830. Second support is May's low crossing at 3.5650.  

GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains

Grains: December corn was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off the June 21^st high, the September 2022 low crossing at $4.62 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.32 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.11 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.32 1/4. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $4.85 1/2. Second support is the September 2022 low crossing at $4.62 1/2.

September wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the June 8^th low crossing at $6.23 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.80 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.80 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $7.70 1/4. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $6.38. Second support is May's low crossing at $5.87 3/4. 

September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, July's low crossing at $7.87 1/4 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at $8.89 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $8.89 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $9.02. First support is July's low crossing at $7.87 1/4. Second support is the June 14^th low crossing at $7.76 3/4.  

September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Monday's low, June's high crossing at $8.94 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.30 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $8.68 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $8.94 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.30 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at $8.07 1/4.  

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains " 

November soybeans were higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November renews the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $14.07 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.12 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $14.07 1/2. Second resistance is the December 2022 high crossing at $14.27 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.24 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.12 3/4.

December soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Monday's high.  Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off the June 29^th low, the 75% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at $418.80 is the next upside target. If December extends last-week's decline, the June 29^th low crossing at $374.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at $418.80. Second resistance is the June 21^st high crossing at $432.60. First support is the June 29^th low crossing at $374.60. Second support is the June 14^th low crossing at $372.80. 

December soybean oil was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 65.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.85 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 61.75. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 65.45. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 58.73. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.85.