Don't forget, USDA's World Board will use the result of NASS's June area survey in its July balance sheets. Here's a reminder of how that turned out for planted area. Harvested areas in the June survey were as follows:#corn 86.322M acres#soybeans 82.696M#wheat 37.722M
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Lower yields are expected for U.S. #corn & #soybeans in USDA's Wednesday update, according to a Reuters poll of 19 analysts. All 19 analysts are looking for a lower corn yield12 of 19 predict a lower soy yield vs June
All trade estimates for USDA's monthly reports due Wednesday at 11am CDT. Market will be keenly focused on how U.S. corn/soy yields are handled and how that might impact balance sheets.
Get ready
Bearish without looking.
Beans from +13c to -30c in 30 seconds.
Corn -4c to -12c in a minute.
Wheat -20c+
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This bearish surprise for beans after the bullish shocker last month by the USDA supports what I said after that report about the USDA having a history of missing the target extremely wide to the left side, then the next report, missing the target on the complete opposite side.
In an honest world, entities make adjustments to get closer and closer to the target from the same side, instead of screwing everybody up with reports that go from one extreme to another opposite extreme.
Traders and private firms that do their own research using much of the same information are not all idiots and the USDA some omnipotent all seeing entity with a magic crystal ball.
Reports like the last 2 are the type that make some people very wealthy because they are SHOCKERS with extreme knee jerk reactions in seconds based entirely on knowing whats in the report.
Previous discussion on that:
Corn soy divergence
16 responses |
Started by coffeeclotch - June 30, 2023, 7:53 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/96891/#96910
USDA June 30, 2023 STUNNING BULLISH SHOCKER
8 responses |
Started by metmike - June 29, 2023, 2:28 p.m.
Analysts did really well anticipating U.S. spring #wheat production, though they missed the stronger upside in the winter crop. Total 2023 wheat output is seen up 5.4% from 2022.
Fairly quiet report for South American production. No change to old- or new-crop #soybeans or new-crop #corn, but a decline in #Argentina's 22/23 corn harvest is offset by a rise in #Brazil.
Can't imagine a 23/24 Brazilian soybean crop of 163 mmt next to 23/24 Chinese imports at 99 mmt is too comforting for soybean bulls, but the Brazilian season hasn't started yet. And USA crop still has a ways to go.
#Wheat: 23/24 crop up in USA but down in Argentina, Canada, EU. Russia exports up 1 mmt.
#Corn: Larger 23/24 USA crop, Ukraine crop/exports up 0.5 mmt. China 23/24 imports unch.
#Soybeans: Smaller 23/24 USA crop, China 23/24 imports down 1 mmt to 99.
metmike: Global ending stocks above are NOT bearish. compared to last month. In fact, a tad bullish for wheat and beans vs June numbers.
These extreme usda reports make it extremely challenging for all traders.
We had a run up in price for beans this week based on expectations of a bullish follow thru from a June for todays report.
just like the last one, they did the opposite and threw traders for a loop.
now, it takes awhile, maybe a couple of days for the markets to settle down and fully dial in the fundamemtal surprise. And it’s tough to know when it’s dialed in or whether the market really believes the numbers.
producers and end users need reliable and CONSISTENT information to make the best marketing and purchasing decisions to keep their operations profitable.
we get that weather is unpredictable and has a huge impact but USDA reports should not have so many shockers based on the same data that everybody thought they knew in an age of knowing almost everything using wonderful technology.
We aren't going to run out of beans or corn anytime soon.
Thanks Jim!
Now we can go back to trading weather!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
Crop conditions+ more 7-10-23
11 responses |
Started by metmike - July 10, 2023, 5:10 p.m.
I posted this Wednesday after USDA's update. 23/24 U.S. soy stocks/use is pegged at 7%, a 4yr high. Here's what had been expected in the past corresponding Julys: 2022/23: 5.1% (now 5.9%) 2021/22: 3.5% (now 6.1%) 2020/21: 9.8% (now 5.7%) 2019/20: 19.3% (now 13.2%)
