Get ready for the 11am fireworks!

Karen Braun@kannbwx

All trade estimates for USDA's reports due Friday at 11am CT. U.S. corn/soy yields are of top interest, but don't forget about other international items like Brazilian corn output or Ukraine grain output/demand, especially since the Black Sea grain deal has ended.

Karen Braun@kannbwx

Conab on Thursday raised #Brazil's #corn harvest to a record 130 mmt, including a second crop of over 100 mmt. More exports are expected to result.

Bullish beans and corn!

Extremely bullish cotton.

Karen Braun@kannbwx

2m

U.S. #corn yield comes in below expectations, #soybeans also come in below.

Karen Braun@kannbwx

U.S. #corn supplies are pegged above analyst expectations, but new-crop #soybeans were below. USDA reduced old & new-crop corn exports tho ethanol was unch. No demand changes to old-crop soybeans but cuts to new-crop soy & #wheat exports were observed.

Karen Braun@kannbwx

Total U.S. #wheat production came in very close to expectations and close to last month's estimate. Spring wheat output came in below all trade estimates, however, while winter wheat slightly topped its range of expectations.

Karen Braun@kannbwx

USDA increased #Brazil's current #corn crop by 2 mmt, but there were no changes for #soybeans or to #Argentina's crops in either marketing year.

Karen Braun@kannbwx

2023 U.S. #corn yield is seen higher than last year but below 2021's record (176.7 bu/acre). Indiana is the only major state setting/tying a record.

Yield for #soybeans is predicted to rise from last year but stay below 2016's high of 51.9 bu/acre. More records/ties here than for corn. Illinois and Iowa are seen coming just short of last year's results.

Karen Braun@kannbwx

2023/24 world stocks came in lighter than expected. Some notes:#China's 23/24 imports of #soybeans are now seen -1 mmt YOY (old crop went up)#Ukraine's 23/24 #corn/#wheat exports were unch from July's estimates, which were issued before the grain deal collapsed

Karen Braun@kannbwx

The trade seems to be figuring out U.S. #corn yield for the August report. USDA's number landed just 0.2% below the average trade guess, the smallest margin by percentage since at least 1999. Last year's miss was also extremely mild.

Not too big of a miss on #soybeans, either, though the recent bias of August bean yield coming in high was broken. This year's analyst bias was the same as in August 2021 when yield was estimated at 50 bpa vs the trade at 50.4 (was 50.8 in July). Final was 51.7 bpa in 2021.

Karen Braun@kannbwx

Updating the state-level U.S. #corn yield table with USDA's August numbers as placeholders for 2023. Good way to quickly see how those yields compare with recent average, max & min.

The same for #soybeans:

Scott Irwin@ScottIrwinUI

Aug 11

Big change is 95 million bushel decrease in projection for soybean crop this year.  Pushes ending stock projection down to 245 million bushel.   Not a big change in absolute terms but a big change in relative terms when starting from 300 million bushels last month.  #tight

Todd E. Gleason

@commodityweek

Aug 11

SOYBEAN S&D Table