https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog3823.txt
Corn +2%
Bean -2%
Cotton +1%
None of that matters a great deal
Winter wheat 26% planted vs 29% average.
The WW weather does matter. Many places need rain (which may be coming) for it to germinate and get well established before going dormant. Still plenty of time!
Harvest of U.S. #corn & #soybeans is slightly ahead of average pace, but it was slower than expected last week. #Cotton harvest pace is in line with average. Newly sown winter #wheat has just started emerging.
As of this week, 58% of U.S. #corn areas are experiencing drought. 34% of corn areas are experiencing severe or worse drought. That is similar to the same weeks in 2003 and 2013. By this pattern I might anticipate drought in 2033 (joking, kinda).
CPC sees chances for normal to warmer-than-normal weather across the U.S. #Corn Belt in October with a possible wet bias in central and southern areas. Will this be favorable for harvest / fall fieldwork / fall sowing?
All the comprehensive weather here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Extended weather.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/ | |||||||||
| 6 to 10 day outlooks | |||||||||
| Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps Temperature Precipitation | |||||||||
| Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 6-10 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |||||||||
Temperature Probability | |||||||||
Precipitation Probability | |||||||||
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Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
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Updated daily below:
https://mrcc.purdue.edu/cliwatch/watch.htm#curMonths
DROUGHT MONITOR
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
Last week, September 19, 2023 
PREVIOUS WEEK
DROUGHT MONITOR NOVEMBER 1, 2022
The severe drought in the Southwest to N. Plains was wiped out this year from the El Nino.
Drought monitor previous years: You can see the natural La Niña, (cold water-in the tropical Pacific)causing the drought! Starting in 2020, then worsening for 2+ years!
Weather Forecast Office Memphis, TN
Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center
| Hydrograph | River at a Glance | Download |
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?gage=memt1&wfo=meg
We remember how low the levels got last year. Hopefully, rains will be increasing this Fall. The outlook is uncertain in my forecast.Mississippi River record-low water levels ease some, but long-term forecast is dryhttps://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/10/mississippi-river-record-low-water-levels-ease-some-but-long-term-forecast-is-dry/ |
Here in sw Indiana, we got .75" of badly needed rain. First rain in over a month!
I reseeded on an extreme hill(and where a FedEx driver, on their first day went off the driveway, got stuck and tore it up, then over corrected on the other side and tore up the asphalt driveway in 5 places) and was worried about runoff washing out the seeds but dodged a bullet from avoiding the heaviest rains in spots surrounding us.
Did something new this time and feeling good that it will bring positive results.
I covered/top dressed the seeds with peat moss to protect them and keep them moist for the next week, for an optimal germination rate. I'm able to water this area.
I also added 20 wheel barrow loads of soil that I get from digging it up in the woods behind the house.
Peat moss and woods dirt have a very low PH/are acidic and grass/most plants prefer something closer to neutral. So I mixed in a bag of lime to increase the PH/neutralize the dirt and mixed in a ton of Miracle Grow since those sources will be lacking most of the nutrients that plants require for optimal growth/development.
https://careforyourlawn.com/lawn-care/peat-moss-as-a-topdressing-should-you-use-it/
How much rain did you guys get?
https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours
mcfarm, cutworm?
What do your crops look like this year?
Harvest?
Here's the just updated NOAA October/30 day forecast.
Good for drying corn (and beans) in the field and timely harvesting. Very low risk for high winds to damage corn in the field with stalk lodging which is when the stalks break BELOW the ears because of high winds.
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Never saw a long range forecast like this issued on a weekend.
30 day forecast link:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/
All the outlook period products:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/
Technical discussion:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html
https://www.extension.purdue.edu/extmedia/ay/ay-262.html
Stalk lodging, by definition, is the breakage of the stalk below the ear. Severely lodged corn leads to increased harvest losses, increased harvest time, increased drying cost, and may result in volunteer corn the following year. Annual yield losses due to stalk lodging in the U.S. range between 5 and 25%. In addition to outright yield losses, grain quality may also decline as a result of stalk lodging.
There are three main causes of late-season stalk lodging in corn. Severe weather is a major cause. Hard driving rains accompanied by strong winds and/or hail can devastate a bumper crop in a matter of minutes.
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With October NOT looking stormy, the risk for stalk lodging is minimal this year.
Corn was still only 15% harvested as of a week ago and should be 25%+ on the next report Monday.
In my neck of the woods...
My crops look good but...
Beans still too wet to harvest yet and I haven't done any yet. I'm at least a week later than normal for harvest. I normally start around the beginning of the 4th week of Sept, I do not know why as it seems like we have had good drying weather. Usely do not start corn till 2nd or 3rd week of Oct.
The river is killing our basis.. Chicago my not have to go lower as the very poor basis is stopping farmer selling.
The river basis at Aurora is -.92 . for beans. I do not ever remember it being that low. Corn -.58 Again I do not remember the basis ever being this low.
JMHO
curtworm,
That's a wonderful comment and great reminder about the Mississippi River.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/99207/#99216
The weather still is extremely impactful here for C and S because we need some ABOVE average rain really bad to boost the river levels for barge traffic.
Unfortunately, prospects for that much rain are NOT good )-:
I'll get on that for you!
I'm not sure what the critical level is at the moment but we are BELOW that right now. Let me do more research. Here's the latest forecast:
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?gage=memt1&wfo=meg
 |
Get the constantly updated NWS rain products, already posted in this thread here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/99207/#99215
I actually use this comprehensive weather thread all day long to get updates. It saves tons of time because you don't need to go to dozens of individual links each time to get all that information!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
If there's one thing at our site that everybody can use every day, it's that link above!
It's mainly the top 60 or so maps(some posts have half a dozen individual-all of them updated daily) that are updated every day. Posts farther down are NOT updated.
I have to go in and update the drought monitor, which is updated by NOAA every Thursday.
Usually, October weather is not a key for price discovery in the grain markets.
This year is already different related to what cutworm stated earlier today about barge traffic on the Mississippi River because the river is too low to support the huge/heavy barges loaded with grain.
Instead, more barges with less grain and a higher cost/barge is what happens.
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Also, this dry weather, if it continues will at some point impact expectations for the Winter wheat crop which needs ample fall moisture for good germination and good establishment for roots before going dormant in November.
The forecast is, overall NOT good right now:
This was the 14 day total precip on the last 12z European Ensemble model.
Maybe some help for WW in parts of KS/OK/TX.
However, VERY bad forecast for the M river and making it worse is the dry weather in the Ohio River Valley which feeds into the M river at Cairo, IL(southern tip of IL).
Weather still looks too dry for Winter Wheat and much too dry to help raise the Mississippi River )-:
This was the last 0z European Ensemble total precip for 15 days.
Less than 1 inch most places in the Midwest.
Rain is needed in #Argentina in order to preserve #corn area for this growing season. One-third of Argy's #wheat area is in poor/bad condition due to dryness and late frosts.
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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.90day.figb.gif
1 system with great rains mid/late week for the next 2 weeks for the mid/upper Mississippi Valley.
The latest 7 day precip forecasts are below.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
2 week rain totals from the last 12z European model which is almost 10 hours old.
Might be enough to lift the Miss River level a bit, temporarily. Hopefully it exceeds expectations but that might cause some local issues with flash flooding. The overall pattern is just not good for making up rain deficits, being mostly dry in week 2:
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https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?gage=memt1&wfo=meg
| |
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?gage=memt1&wfo=meg
Constantly updated weather maps:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
The rains below will fall mostly in the next 3 days, then it's mostly dry thru the rest of the 2 week forecasting period )-:
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Rains upstream in the Upper Mississippi Valley will be helping the river downstream to gradually rise a tiny bit(around 7 inches) downstream but not enough to help much.
Total rains the past week below:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?gage=memt1&wfo=meg
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Rains don't look promising the next 2 weeks:
Total precip from the just out 12z GEFS model thru 384 hours:
We have a ridge west/trough east pattern for the next 10 days which is usually pretty dry, especially in October.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/alens500_maps.d08.1.gif
A bit more rain than yesterday but 1-1.5 inches the next 2 weeks still won't help much.
Need 2+ inches!!! in the bright blue.
Harvest of U.S. #soybeans was 62% complete as of Sunday, significantly more than analysts were expecting. #Corn harvest was not quite as fast as expected last week but progress remains ahead of average. Winter #wheat planting is even with average.
The jump in U.S. soybean harvest progress on the week is relatively normal (almost the exact same numbers in the same week last year). Corn harvest moving at a slightly above average pace, but not necessarily moving fast.
U.S. harvest is moving a bit quicker than the recent average. 59% of #corn, 76% of #soybeans and 41% of #cotton were harvested as of Sunday. More than half the anticipated winter #wheat acres have emerged.
A graphical look at the 2023 harvest progress of U.S. #corn and #soybeans, which were 59% and 76% complete as of Sunday. Both are very similar to the year-ago pace, and the progression has been very uneventful so far. A bit ahead of normal but nothing standout.
All the comprehensive weather here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
The Mississippi River has been rising recently. The forecast is for it to peak at the end of the week, then fall again next week.
I'm thinking that big rains coming up should help, then in November, it turns dry again.
Go Mississippi River!
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?gage=memt1&wfo=meg
Total rains the last 7 days below. The Ohio River feeds into the M River!!
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Mississippi River dropping hard again the next week+ )-:
Rain chances increase later this month (-:
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?gage=memt1&wfo=meg
