+++++++++++++
Here's the latest US version of the same map:
2 week forecast rains from the just out 12z GEFS model:
Rains for Coffee-land. This is typical as we start the rainy season for that part of Brazil. This is around average rains for that area during this period.
Not enough rain for Argentina which is in a drought.
0z run from 12 hours ago. No huge changes!
Just out 12z GEFS total precip for South America.
Good rains for cofee-land.
Still not enough rain to break Argentina's drought but there is some rain:
https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php
Coffee charts
1. 50 years
2. 10 years
Are the short term lows in? Is this a bear flag?
3. 1 year
4. 1 month
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coffee
Good rains for southern 1/2 of coffee. Early rainy season tends to shift from south to north so this is normal.
Still not enough for Argentina's drought but better than last week in light blue shades which is 2" or more.
Too much rain in S.Brazil. Dark red is 6+ inches. Maybe bullish beans/corn from planting issues. Could be why they are up this evening.
Just out 6z GEFS total rains 384 hours. Not that much change.
Good rains much of coffee. A bit of help in Argentina drought but not enough. Slightly less excessive rains in S. Brazil vs the previous run.
Just out 18z GEFS for 384 hours. About the same, tiny increase in Argentina rains.
Great rains for early flower blooming in coffee-land!
A bit too wet for planting S. Brazil but too dry in WCentral Brazil. TOO dry in Argentina! with just 50% of the average rain in a major drought already.
It's still very early but if this doesn't change, it will turn increasingly bullish for, especially beans.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/99557/#99706
Coffee:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/99557/#99705
Thanks Mike
YW, Jim!
In this volatile political situation and lots of tension with China, our biggest buyer, I would be careful on weighting weather as the main price determinant this early in the SA growing season.
Compared to us, this is sort of like the end of April.
Coffee getting decimated today, -6c. Weather is bearish with forecast rains above shown late yesterday perfect for stimulating early flowering.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coffee
1. 10 year chart-huge high early 2022
2. 6 month chart-triple top/major resistance tested and failed to stay above this week
3. 1 month chart-strong uptrend......until today
4. 1 week chart-decimated today, now -7c!
Not enough rain for W.Central Brazil-Mato Grosso.... or Argentina in week 1. Too wet in S Brazil
Rains pick up at the end of week 2 for Argentina, still too dry W.Central Brazil. Too wet S.Brazil. 2 week totals below.
So far, 2023 has been the second driest for #Argentina's grain belt in the last 30 years - second to 2009, which also featured horrible crop outcomes. Year-to-date rainfall is about 30% below the 10yr avg. However, take note that 2010 yields for #corn & #soybeans were good...
+++++++++
18z GEFS totals
1. Next week. Still too dry Argentina and W.Central Brazil. Too wet S.Brazil. Big rains coffee.
2. 2 weeks. Rains pick up Argentina. Too dry W.Central Brazil. Too wet S. Brazil. Good rains coffee
Too dry W.Central Brazil. Still a bit too wet S.Brazil. Some help Argentina but still not enough rain.
Good rains for coffee.
Just out 12z GEFS 2 week rains below.
Weather has turned BULLISH!
Total rains thru 16 days below from the last 6z GEFS early this morning.
1. Less rain for coffee-land but not dry
2. Too dry W.Central Brazil(northern region for major bean production), still too wet far S Brazil
3. Too dry in Argentina that already has drought
Thanks Mike!
You‘e very welcome Jim!
The weather continues even MORE bullish in South America.
Very dry in Central Brazil. Slightly dry in Argentina that has drought. Too wet still in S.Brazil.
Around average rains for coffee.
Some perspective on just how wet southern #Brazil was in October. Key corn & soy state Parana tallied more than 13 inches of rain last month, more than in any other month since at least 1999. Soy planting started quickly there and has since faded to more normal levels.
Im surprised corn hasn't shown more life.
Agree, Jim. Corn has been hasn't moved much.
#Soybeans were 51% planted in #Brazil as of last Thursday, the slowest pace in 3 years and below last year's 57%. Top grower Mato Grosso has been very dry and that has recently slowed planting pace (see chart).
This was the last 12z GEFS that now comes out an hour earlier thanks to the time change. Not much change. You can scroll up thru numerous pages to see some previous forecasts in recent weeks to compare.
A month ago, the drought in Argentina was the biggest concern. Now its dryness in Central Brazil as you can see on the graph above. Mainly huge Mato Grosso, which is 26% of production. I provided the production map below again for you to see exactly where that is.
Chess is starting for me a 5 schools at the end of the month and we're doing sign ups, so my posting will start trailing off )-:
No changes on the SA weather. Still pretty bullish.
Last 6z GEFS total rains 384 hours below
Im thinking there will he some profit taking before Thursday and then its game on
Thanks, Jim.
I wonder if crude dropping more than $3 earlier put some pressure on the beans late this morning?
They dropped more than 20c from 9:30-11:45 am. Didn't see any extra rain on models to cause it but somebody could have added it in their forecast for late week 2 and me not knowing about it.
Back up 12c this evening.
I was watching both yesterday and never put the two together, but makes perfect sense.
Crude down another $2 today with its downside breakout is likely making it tougher on beans.
I don't know how much impact this is having but today and yesterday have rains picking up after day 10.
1. Rains after 10 days-bone dry in Central Brazil
2. Rains after 16 days-rains all from days 10-16 in Central Brazil
Thanks Mike. Could see a significant correct if the rains come to fruition
Yes, Jim. If a new pattern emerged that was defined by beneficial rains, the highs should be in. We wouldn't have much confidence in that until next week. However, the market often doesn't wait around until we have confidence before reacting.
Here's the just updated 6z GEFS. Actually a tad LESS rain than yesterday. So it might NOT turn wetter.
The updated 12z GEFS had more rain in Argentina and continues to introduce rains in Central Brazil later in week 2 but the main item was the BEARISH USDA crop report that came out at 11am and instant drop of 20c after the release.
I'd forgotten about the USDA report!
Forgetting about a USDA report can be hazardous to your account.
Very true, Jim!
Not much change to the forecast. Still bullish from Central Brazil being too dry(with a potential uptick in rains late week 2) but slightly wetter for Argentina.
The most bullish item might be how wet it continues to be for S.Brazil.
C. Brazil continues too dry but with an uptick in rains later in week 2 that would be in plenty of time(It's still early in the season). Argentina look slightly drier.
Nothing bearish about this weather, except, maybe coffee-land.
Not much change. Increasing week 2 rains C.Brazil but they are pretty far off.
1. Total week 1 rain-intense heat during that period
2. Total 16 day rain
The 18z GEFS doesn't have much change for Central Brazil. Top map. Total 2 week rains.
The updated afternoon European model, 2nd map below, however breaks out rains for Central parts of Brazil, starting next Monday and has MORE total rains after 2 weeks. 2nd map.
This is a new product that I just started accessing a short while ago, so I am not super confident and it appears that it was wetter overnight. 3rd map below.
This is NOT the more reliable Euro Ensemble.
Regardless the European model has more rains and both models have rain chances starting next Monday in C.Brazil and they both keep it too wet in S.Brazil.
The rains are going to increase in Argentina a lot which is looking more bearish. C.Brazil/Mato Grosso should see rains increasing also starting in less than a week. Those are bearish elements.
However, S.Brazil remains MUCH too wet-very bullish.
One the toughest things for me to do is pick out where Mato Grosso is on a global weather map. This may help you. It's basically between 9 south to 18 south latitude and 60 west to 51 west longitude.
https://www.alamy.com/mato-grosso-red-highlighted-in-map-of-brazil-image363417132.html
On the rainfall map below, there's a latitude/longitude box in the center of the map that's 10s-20s and 60w to 50w. Mato Grosso fits almost entirely inside that box except its shifted, maybe 50-100 miles to the northwest of the center of the box.
Total rains below for Mato Grosso are 2 inches northwest and southeast(light blue) but just under that in the center.
You can see where S.Brazil growing areas are pretty easily with 6-10 inches in red on top of saturated soils.
I was actually thinking the rains would be increasing for Mato Grosso on most model runs but the just out 18z GEFS took away some rain. Just 1 run though.
As the next big rain approaching with confidence, the beans will have a correction. Or if its a big pattern change that features 3+ inches on the 2 week totals.
The first huge, widespread rain event across MG could break the beans 40c pretty quickly.
Remember from the link above where that box is in the middle of the map below(shift it slightly northwest out of the box). LESS THAN 2 inches now and less than 1.5 inches in some areas.
We need some decent coverage of purple in that box and to get rid of the reds in S.Brazil for the forecast to be bearish. Argentina is still looking better though.
metmike: Not much change
Vegetation Health Index in #Brazil this week versus select past years. #Soybean yields were great in 2021 (corresponding to 2020 chart here) and decent in 2023, but they were poor in 2016. What will 2024 bring?
++++++++++++++++++++++++
A look at weekly average temperatures (deg C) in crop-heavy North Mato Grosso, #Brazil. Temps in the last couple weeks have been running between 3-4 deg C above recent averages for the date. Latest week average was 30.2 C (86F).
Meal and bean markets ARE expecting South American rain. Nice 'warning' on the 14th, MetMike!
Probably a chance to buy Friday or Monday.
Thanks much, tjc!
This is what he's talking about.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/99557/#100576
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/99557/#100585
Interestingly, the amounts of rain overnight didn't change much, so it wasn't one of those huge, no brainer, easy to short based on weather situations.
The main thing that you know better than any person on the planet is the tricky timing to picking way overextended tops and bottoms.
You and I both love doing it.
I think that in this case, we had something going on that we both know well.
A bull often needs to be fed even more bullish news every day to inspire new aggressive buying at the higher/more expensive prices.
My old friend, local(Mark Kinoff) made a comment 20+ years ago to me that once the market has traded a "killed crop" mentality for X amount of time, even a forecast for 0 production can't make it go higher because you've completely exhausted the pool of buyers at the overinflated price.
This is with regards to speculation trading months before the actual crop will be harvested.
If we really did have 0 production of the new crop, prices would have no upside limit when that crisis was a reality and end users did panic buying at any price.
But you will exhaust speculation traders at some point when its a futures contract that doesn't expire for months.
I think we did that earlier this week and without much increase in rains the past 2 days.
However, what we did is get 2 DAYS CLOSER to the rains early next week which caused the speculation buying to dry up at these elevated levels..........so sellers, some taking profits had to push lower in order to find enough buying to match their orders.
Something just grabbed grains attention.
The forecast is still not bearish, even with rain chances getting closer and the most bullish hot/dry behind us for C.Brazil.
Some rain in Mato Grosso but not enough(light blue, 2+ inches expanding). Too much rain still in S.Brazil.
Argentina weather is the place that actually looks pretty bearish now.
I would still not call the forecast bearish but it no doubt has been getting LESS and LESS bullish. A bull needs to be fed not starved (-:
More light blue, 2 inch total rains in Mato Grosso each run and now some 3 inch amounts in the far southeast part. That's getting closer to average.
Too much rain in S.Brazil still.
N.Argentina is bearish.
The Big question for Sunday night is will the SA forecast verify? What will coverage be? Amounts?
what is the new long range outlook?
Thanks cutworm,
The rains won't even be here yet on Sunday Night so it will still just be a forecast and no verifying yet.
However, the forecast has been getting increasingly LESS bullish the last 3 days and I would call it BEARISH now.
The just out 6z GEFS now has light blue almost everywhere in the MG box below for 2 week totals and even some 3 inch purples.
There is LESS rain in S.Brazil too and decent rain in Argentina.
This could still turn back more bullish again(the previous 0z run actually tried to do that) but the trend is unmistakable.
The last GEFS is not as bearish as yesterday. Rains have stopped increasing for MG. Forecast changes this week could have some big impacts and actual rain events in progress(more or less than expected) will have huge impacts on the market at that time.
The last 18z GEFS is back to being WETTER, which has been the trend, except for the previous run above.
N. Argentina has good rains.
Still TOO wet in S.Brazil which is a big problem(bullish).
The MG box below, for the first time is covered in light blue with 3 inch purples in the southeast and northwest corners.
For that area, that's still not quite average but almost there.
7:40 pm CST: Addition: We opened lower than spiked down -13c and have recovered to UNCH for the session, only 40 minutes in. Some volatile trading possible this week!
Quite the swing in beans already tonight
+9.5c now, Jim!
I did some searching on Mato Grosso climate/weather and location of the bean production to help us follow the weather there this week. The dark green below shows that its concentrated in a large, west to east band across the northcentral portion of the state. This is almost a quarter of the production for all of Brazil, it's like IA/IL in the United States as shown below!
https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/Brazil/Municipality/Brazil_Soybean.png
https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/soybean-production-by-state
The biggest city that I could find in this area was Sinop which just inside the northern periphery of the soybean belt in northcentral MG.
This area has a tropical climate with warm temperatures all year.
They see bone dry Winters and wet Summers. Keep in mind that the soils in Brazil don't hold moisture as well as our soils, so they need almost double the rain that we do in their growing season in a place like this with a tropical climate.
The average rainfall ramps up like this:
August near 0.
September 2+ inches.
October 5+ inches
November 9 inches! That's 2 inches/week. 18 days with rain
December 11.5 inches! That's 2.5 inches/week. 20 days with rain.
https://en.climate-data.org/south-america/brazil/mato-grosso-168/
https://en.climate-data.org/south-america/brazil/mato-grosso/sinop-4077/
++++++++++++
So the 2-3 inches in MG on the last 18z GEFS model run in just over 2 weeks would be great for IA/IL because it would add up to 5 inches in a month. But the average of Sinop for November is 9 inches! Thats an average of 4.5+ inches for these 384 hour model runs. Considering the current drought already, they need need at least 3+ inches and ideally 4+ inches pretty quickly for these rain total forecast maps.
Just my 2 cents
Temps have been Hot sometimes above 40 C. Eric says that this rain is not monsoonal. As of Friday he was reporting that the monsoon type weather has not started. I think that they need the monsoon.
Just food for thought
Thanks, cutworm, that's very helpful!
I have not studied monsoonal flow in Brazil enough(or this area closely in the past but am learning alot right now) and am too busy with chess to study and learn real fast today so thats much appreciated.
The models suggest at the end of the period something more favorable for those monsoonal flow but thats early December.
The last 6z GEFS run boosted rains a tad again but we need purples everywhere in the MG box in the center, at least 3 inches. We're creeping higher though, mainly from the increase late in the period.
Also, heavy rains in S.Brazil still. Rains in N.Argentina have increased and are more bearish there.
Not much change on 12z GEFS. Need the MG box in the center to fill in with Purples. Light blue is 2"+ but 4.5 inches is average for 2 weeks at this time of year.
Thanks to cutworm tipping me off earlier, I'm watching for the MONSOONAL FLOW. Eric doesn't mention it today but on this last run, it kicks in big the first few days in December. Starting on Dec. 3rd, MG starts getting dumped on daily. This is still 312 hours out!
Meal sure acted like rain, then by 11est, no rain. My sunday notes said "buy monday dip". Failed so to do.
If you've been watching these updates, you'll easily see the massive increase in rains on this evening's 18z GEFS.
There's even a 4+ inch band that impacts part of MG with 3+ inches most key production places. N.Argentina has good rains.
We opened lower but are +5c. Maybe there's too much damage already or the heavy rains continuing in S.Brazil are really bullish. Its been extremely wet there for many weeks without enough of a break to ever dry out.
Make that +7c. We should also note the soybean seasonals are very positive at this time of year.
The 0z GEFS took out all the rain the 18z added
The 6z run is more like the 0z run that took out most of the rain which the 18z run yesterday evening added. So the 18z GEFS appears to be a wet outlier for MG. Still TOO wet for S.Brazil.
After being +20c shortly after the open, beans are reversing lower.
Beans held and came back to close +10c.
The last 12z GEFS was supportive with LESS rain for MG.
Still TOO MUCH rain for S.Brazil.
Same solution on the last 18z GEFS. Heavier rains expanding north and south but not to MG yet and too wet in S.Brazil which has got to be hurting.
Update: 1:15 am. 0z GEFS solution was almost a carbon copy of the previous one.
Not much change. I've been expecting the rains to increase, purples to start filling in for MG but that hasn't happened yet.
Mostly bearish for Argentina now but still bullish for Brazil. Not enough rains(yet) C.Brazil, too wet S.Brazil. Broken record.
Beans close at Noon today!
The weather forecast hasn't changed that much,(for MG) except that some rain events will be impacting the dry areas for the foreseeable future. Still not wet enough for MG but at least some rain.
N.Argentina looks pretty good(WETTER than before) and S.Brazil is NOT AS wet, which is more bearish for both those areas.
Beans gapped lower and that could serve as a downside breakaway gap, unless the weather turns more bullish again.
More rain for Argentina which has maximized bearishness for Argentina weather.
Less rain for waterlogged S.Brazil = bearish X 2.
However, drought stricken WC.Brazil/ Mato Grosso still only has ~50% of average rains and not much the next week, so that's still bullish. 
Big increase in week 2 rains on the last run of the 12z GEFS for MG, especially southern areas.
Argentina is perfect to make up rain deficits. S.Brazil is still a bit too wet but not AS wet as earlier this month.
Not quite as much rain in MG this last 18z run-need more, especially north and most of it is still week 2(so week 1 is bullish).
A bit too much rain in S.Brazil still but less than recent flooding.
Perfect rains for Argentina. 
Beans opened a bit lower, had a small spike down and are +6c now. This is what happened last Sunday Night if I remember correctly(but with twice the magnitude)?
Overnight runs not much different. The 12z run is coming out now. Will try to update that one.
We started chess at 5 schools this week and I'm swamped but posting selectively. Sorry for not following up yesterday.
1. The last 18z GEFS has the least amount of rain for the drought areas of Mato Grosso in the forecast in the last week. In this 384 hour period, normal rains are MORE than 4 inches. The totals here (2 inches) are barely 50% of that! BULLISH!
2. The excessive rain pattern in S.Brazil appears to be over-Bearish.
3. The previous drought in Argentina continues to be obliterated with wonderful rains. BEARISH!
Beans had their biggest day in awhile with double digit gains. I've not been following other news recently.
We might be breaking out to the upside??
Some interesting changes. The drought in N.Argentina is being wiped out but the pattern has morphed continuously wetter for several weeks and is now a bit TOO wet.
The too wet mentality will not likely be bullish in a place with big rainfall deficits still.
S.Brazil is clearly drying out.
Central Brazil/Mato Grosso is still only getting 50% of the average rain the next 2 weeks on a crop this is suffering from drought already. This is the main bullish weather in South America. 
I am repulsed by the BS climate change propaganda wherein a defeated presidential candidate has been made rich.
Weather IS predictable by watching long term weather cycles. I recall leaving basketball games as a teenager (1966-1970) in zero degrees and chuckle at youth leaving in gym trunks as little as two winters ago. It appears to be trending colder. I assume this is not predictable from so called current climatologists who seem to lack the ability to look at past observed daily climatology as opposed to their made up ever warmer postulations.
The point of my rant, for the next several years, weather will not be favorable. Long term grain/soft growing conditions will not be favorable. Thus, bullish prices are projected. Picking THE bottom in say corn will not be easy, but the low is closer than another dollar drop.
Look at CC and OJ as they make all time highs. KC is/has bottomed out, and thus is turning. Ct likewise, not as dramatic, will rise. SB is not going substantially lower.
It is very hard to be a buy and hold in commodities, but I believe we are very close.
Others thoughts?
Agree on the lunacy of using the best weather/climate for growing crops in the last 1,000 years (previous time that it was this warm)and trying to trick people into thinking it’s a climate crisis.
Best beneficial CO2 level since humans have existed and still only half the optimal level for most life….
but the EPA completely made up that it’s a pollutant In order to have the power to regulate and tax it and pass retarded legislation that subsidies and mandates fake green energy which is wrecking the planet with wind turbines and batteries.
While the real green energy, fossil fuels is massively greening up the planet via the indisputable , hugely positive contribution of CO2 in the law
We’re having an authentic climate optimum for most life.
Cold still kills 10 times more people than heat And 200 times more life than heat.
Most life would prefer temperatures still a bit warmer than this and much more CO2.
the last We rescued the planet from near CO2 starvation and now we have a booming biosphere.
CO2 is the building block for all life.
Wealthy Climate charlatans like Al Gore have made a career out of stealing peoples intelligence and money.
Him and others like him give us solutions that are wrecking the planet to supposedly save the planet.
Eric Snodgrass discussion of SA rain. starts 19:45
Thank you, cutworm!
Not much change. Still too dry C. Brazil(but some rain) and mostly bearish elsewhere.
Adjusted the screen shot farther east to show coffee.
Far northern areas of MG and especially Bahia are pretty dry. Could be helping coffee again.
Procured my second kc call yesterday, and I am very pleased!
Coffee is breaking out to the upside, having cleared the 176 level! 190s here we come?
Congrats tjc!
Coffee is clearly a bull market and off to the races again after a brief correction from 180 to 170.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coffee
Beans made a major, spike low at the end of May, then a higher low in August, then another (harvest/seasonal) low in October that was higher than the first low. We are above the August low right now.
We have 2 battling longer term scenarios below.
After the HUGE high early in the year, we've made numerous LOWER HIGHS, with the last one being 2 weeks ago. This has put in a well defined DOWNTRENDING line that could actually be showing a steepening/accelerated slope with the last lower high in November.
But we just saw a higher lower and potential rounded bottom.
So we are seeing a tightening wedge pattern with higher lows and lower highs.
What this is showing is traders seeing good value on a break to a price ABOVE previous lows, so the are stepping in sooner to buy.
But sellers are doing the same thing BEFORE prices get to previous highs. (lower highs).
A break out above that is needed to shed definitive light on the technical picture.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/soybeans
Updated coffee weather above just now a couple of posts up.
Not that much change.
Bearish Argentina a bit too wet again for S.Brazil.
Still the same old mild/moderately bullish forecast for C.Brazil with barely 50% of normal rains the next 2 weeks but at least "some" rain.
Without a great deal of change, it might be hard to generate fresh (speculative) buying at these prices.
But to (incorrectly) paraphrase, "COME MONDAY, we be ....
Jimmy Buffet?
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/science-choice/202104/why-is-music-so-pleasurable
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Our man on the ground, reporting live
