South America Wx and crops
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Started by metmike - Dec. 3, 2023, 4:40 p.m.

Previous thread:

South America crops/WX/coffee
83 responses
Started by metmike - Oct. 11, 2023, 2:07 p.m.


Here's the latest 12z GEFS. LESS rain for N.Argentina, more everywhere in Brazil, including the drought stricken bean areas of C.Brazil. Still a bit below average there though. They should be seeing around 5 inches to hit average for this 384 hour period. Much of this rain is mid/late week 2, however which is the most apt to change. It could also be a pattern change to wetter finally??

I did some searching on Mato Grosso climate/weather and location of the bean production to help us follow the weather there. The dark green below shows that its concentrated in a large, west to east band across the northcentral portion of the state. This is almost a quarter of the production for all of Brazil, it's like IA/IL in the United States as shown below!


                Re: Re: Re: South America WX/coffee            

One the toughest things for me to do is pick out where Mato Grosso is on a global weather map. This may help you. It's basically between 9 south to 18 south latitude and 60 west to 51 west longitude.

On the zoomed in  rainfall map below, there's a latitude/longitude box in the top/center of the map that's 10s-20s  and 60w to 50w.  Mato Grosso fits almost entirely inside that box except its shifted, maybe 50-100 miles to the northwest of the center of the box.


Total rains above for Mato Grosso are only  2 inches for the far northeast part of that box in blue but 3-4+ inches in the remainder of the box.

You can see where S.Brazil growing areas are pretty easily with 6+ in red on top of saturated soils.


The boxes below are for different lat/long values

November 15, 2023

Karen Braun@kannbwx

Vegetation Health Index in #Brazil this week versus select past years. #Soybean yields were great in 2021 (corresponding to 2020 chart here) and decent in 2023, but they were poor in 2016. What will 2024 bring?



A look at weekly average temperatures (deg C) in crop-heavy North Mato Grosso, #Brazil. Temps in the last couple weeks have been running between 3-4 deg C above recent averages for the date. Latest week average was 30.2 C (86F).



                Re: South America WX/coffee                        

                By metmike - Nov. 19, 2023, 11:29 p.m.            


The biggest city that I could find in this area was Sinop which just inside the northern periphery of the soybean belt in northcentral MG. 

This area has a tropical climate with  warm temperatures all year.

They see bone dry Winters and wet Summers. Keep in mind that the soils in Brazil don't hold moisture as well as our soils, so they need almost double the rain that we do in their growing season in  a place like this with a tropical climate. 

The average rainfall ramps up like this:

August near 0.  

September 2+ inches. 

October 5+ inches

November 9 inches! That's 2 inches/week. 18 days with rain

December 11.5 inches! That's 2.5 inches/week. 20 days with rain.

By metmike - Dec. 3, 2023, 8:37 p.m.
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Small gap lower for the beans to start out the current trading week.

Recently, gaps like this get filled and look like a potential selling exhaustion gap, followed by some strength which never gets enough traction to break out to the upside and we come back down again.

Beans are in no mans land technically with a tightening wedge type pattern. Lower highs and higher lows for some time frames.

1. 10 year. Head and shoulders top and we're just above the neck line support? Major top May, 2022. Lower top Feb 2023.

2. 1 Year. Pronounced downtrend. Major, spike low at the end of May, 2023 then a higher low in August, then another  (harvest/seasonal) low in October that was higher than the first low. We are above the August low right now, which was above the May and October low.

3. 1 month. November spike down glitch from switching from Nov to Jan beans. Clearly a down trend. Breaking down below support. Lowest price in over a month.

4. 1 Week. Double digit gains in the middle of last week, followed by a crash to new lows for the move on Friday. 

Overall the technical picture looks negative. The current weather, which was pretty adverse in much of South America early in their growing season has improved.  So COMPARED to that, slightly adverse in C.Brazil right now but with increasing rains is BEARISH weather.

By metmike - Dec. 4, 2023, 9:50 a.m.
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After the small gap lower on Sunday night and beans being down double digits, we found some good support very early this morning and have come back to fill the gap, close to UNCH at the moment.

The 0z GEFS was a bit drier for Mato Grosso but the less rain on the last 6z GEFS was PRONOUNCED!

MG fits almost perfectly in the Lat/Long box in the center of the image below. 

Light blue below which is 2 inches. Purple is 3 inches(far southeast and west/central. Average for this 384 hour period in December is 5+ inches.

By metmike - Dec. 4, 2023, 1:27 p.m.
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Back to MORE rain on the last 12z GEFS for drought hit Mato Grosso in C.Brazil (uncertain whether that's why we're -20c).

A bit more rain for N.Argentina too. For sure more bearish over all.

By metmike - Dec. 5, 2023, 10:54 a.m.
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Hard to find much thats bullish in the last 6z GEFS weather forecast for rain the next 384 hours. Still not enough rain in Central Brazil but rains have been INCREASING for that area.

Great weather outside of that. More welcome rain in Argentina, less in the wet spots of S.Brazil.

By mcfarm - Dec. 6, 2023, 5:33 a.m.
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has been dry down there. Seems most "experts" have all lowered their yield forecasts but all the way down to nearly a new record crop again. So, same old for SA soy

By metmike - Dec. 6, 2023, 12:46 p.m.
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Doesn't get much more bearish than this. 

1. Continued Increasing rains for C.Brazil!

2. Near optimal rains for the rest of Brazil and ALL of key growing regions of N.Argentina!

By tjc - Dec. 6, 2023, 3:23 p.m.
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  In my profession, they always say:   "blame it on the lawyers!"

  In trading, I say, "blame it on the weathermen"!!

Certainly was a RISK OFF day, almost everywhere.

By metmike - Dec. 6, 2023, 7:16 p.m.
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"blame it on the weathermen"!!

Thanks much, tjc!

OR.......if you're on the right side of a weather trade(short in a bearish market)'s thanks to the accurate weather assessment!

This was the late morning 12z GEFS. Maximum bearish EVERYWHERE! The 18z run thats coming out is a bit less wet but there is no weather threat anywhere in SA!

By metmike - Dec. 7, 2023, 9:49 a.m.
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Less rain for MG/C.Brazil. Not sure if that's the reason for the strength as we reversed up from support BEFORE the drier GEFS model came out.

There's a chance that the European model came out drier FIRST!

Regardless, near perfect weather outside of that area. 

By metmike - Dec. 8, 2023, 10:56 a.m.
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Great weather across most of S.America but still only 50% of average rains in C.Brazil which usually gets 5-6 inches of rain in this 2 week period at this time of year. Soils don't hold moisture as well down there compared to the US!

This was the last 6z GEFS. 3-4 inches in 2 weeks for MG and central Brazil. So not dry but still barely above 50% average. 

By metmike - Dec. 9, 2023, 12:19 a.m.
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The last 18z GEFS took out enough rain in C.Brazil to be bullish for over 25% of the production in Brazil. 2.5 inches of rain in 2 weeks is over an inch less than the previous runs. That's LESS than 50% of average and what they need.

Just 1 run and the rest of SA has near perfect weather!

By metmike - Dec. 10, 2023, 8:27 p.m.
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The guidance over the weekend, including this last 18z GEFS run continues with LESS rain for C.Brazil (just under 50% of average rain) which got the beans off to a +7.5c higher open. This is just under 30% of Brazil's production area. 

Still near perfect elsewhere in SA.

Added: 6z The drier trend has extended to S.Brazil. Honestly, the C.Brazil dryness has enough rain to not be rip roaring bullish.

By metmike - Dec. 11, 2023, 2:08 p.m.
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I copied a map of Brazil soybean production below so you can see what areas will be impacted most with the upcoming drier pattern (with heat). 

Note the it's FARTHER SOUTH than where concerns have been and actually impacting some areas that were too wet previously.

This was the just out 12z GEFS solution for 384 hour total rains.

Looks to me like the driest slot is especially in Mato Grosso, then parts of  Goias and N.Parana.

Mato Grosso still only gets 50% average rains with the sw part of that state, maybe 25%.

It's a bit challenging to try to match up the weather map below, which uses country geographical borders along with latitude and longitude lines to  the production map above that uses state borders. 

By metmike - Dec. 11, 2023, 8:14 p.m.
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Same pattern on this last 18z run of the GEFS. Any place with light blue is less than 50% rain. Slightly Darker blue is more like 30% or less than average, down to even less than that with the darkest blue.

By metmike - Dec. 12, 2023, 10:10 a.m.
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This was the last 6z GEFS total rains thru 384 hours.

I'll copy the 12z from yesterday morning below that for comparison.

There definitely is more rain on this last 6z run compared to Monday's late morning maps, which was 18 hours ago.

Is this a trend?

Well, the 0z run below from 6 hours ago WAS THE WETTEST OF ALL for the driest area.

NOT WET but just NOT AS DRY, we can say.  So we have the last 2 models being NOT AS DRY vs yesterday's runs. 

There's no way to know if the next few runs will be MORE or LESS dry. 

By mcfarm - Dec. 12, 2023, 11:18 a.m.
Like Reply   new eric with prediction for the 21 to 28 time period.....much dried than any week previous and its a big change

By metmike - Dec. 12, 2023, 11:55 a.m.
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Eric usually does a great job and I don’t have time to watch at the moment, but his title that 95% of Brazil is drier is dead wrong.

Look at the thread  above that PROVES that the GEFS was NOT AS dry Compared to 24 hours ago.

Lets ask the market.

Soybean market, is 95% of Brazil drier or are the driest areas LESS dry early this morning on the weather forecast maps?
Soybeans: “I’m -7c compared to the Monday close. that’s my answer, you figure it out !


Soybeans: Make that -11c!  If my answer isn’t clear, do NOT trade soybeans……ever!

Soybeans: Now I’m down -13c. Want to guess what the new 12z GEFS model coming out is predicting? Hint: not 95% drier.

By metmike - Dec. 12, 2023, 3:38 p.m.
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Not quite as dry again at 12z for that last GEFS that came out 3 hours ago.

Argentina has the perfect rains after starting extremely dry.

18z GEFS update. Kept in on this page to compare to the previous run. Not AS dry again in Brazil, but still drier than average.

Even More welcome rains again in Argentina on top of dry soils which now, could be threatened with a bit TOO MUCH rain in some places. The bright red is 8 inches in just over 2 weeks.

By cutworm - Dec. 13, 2023, 8:52 a.m.
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This does not mean no rain. heat also returning. Soil water holding capacity??? Are rains timely???

By metmike - Dec. 13, 2023, 11:01 a.m.
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Thanks a bunch, cutworm!

Can you provide a link for the source, please?

Here's the last 6z GEFS. Like the last half dozen runs now, it's NOT AS dry for Brazil and almost perfect for Argentina. If anything, a few spots in Argentina will have a bit too much rain with this pattern. 10 inches in a month is good for SA at this time of year with their fast draining soils. We can do well with less than half that in the US.

A map like this below, over the Midwest in the Summer would indicate above to MUCH above rains everywhere.

However, SA soils don't retain water like our near perfect growing soils. Temperatures in SA are also a bit warmer., especially compared to the Upper Midwest. Ideally, we'd like to see at least 4+ inches on the map below for just over 2 weeks. That would be good for an entire month in the Cornbelt.

It looks like the southwest part of Brazil is the section which will have the least amount of rain. 

the map above is predicted rain the next 16 days. The map below is average rain for an entire month, almost double that period. Brazil needs double+ the rains our Cornbelt does!

Summer Rainfall Averages for Every State

By metmike - Dec. 13, 2023, 1 p.m.
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Folks wondering why beans are -20c today when we have a severe drought.

Markets always dial in future conditions and future weather BEFORE they happen.
Todays drought in Brazil is ancient news that every trader has known about for weeks.

It could be worse than what the market thinks but that means nothing on December 13. What the market will focus and trade on is news today compared to expectations based on yesterdays news.

In a weather market, that means the  daily updated weather forecasts.
And it’s the CHANGE fro the previous forecast/day NOT the deviation from average.

For instance, below average rain and heat is bullish in the middle of the growing season. But NOT if the market has been trading and dialing into the pice MUCH below rain and intense heat.

A small crop is bullish But a small crop that just got bigger because the weather forecast just added .5 inches of rain in a key location is BEARISH.

And the market absolutely does not use a formula for day to day price changes.

A small change when everybody is leaning the wrong way will amplify the magnitude of the move  X 10 compared to a bigger change in a market where everybody has been loading up in the same direction.

What Matters most is the size of the pool of the traders willing to take on new positions or cover current positions.

By metmike - Dec. 13, 2023, 8:01 p.m.
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Not a great deal of change on this just out 18z GEFS.

I don't get the European Ensemble model for South America and it can sometimes look different than the American model(GEFS).

By cutworm - Dec. 13, 2023, 11:45 p.m.
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Mike the above came from Eric Snodgrass

Dec 13, 2023 IN-DEPTH: Cut-Off Low in S Plains | 5-Model Comp | MILD | Pac Jet Extends | BRA Drought - YouTube

At about 18:10 he gives his version of SA weather

By metmike - Dec. 14, 2023, 5:46 a.m.
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Thanks, cutworm, I saw that when I watched him a couple of hours after that.

i knew that It was valid in this case but like to share links with others and also have to use myself as part of a learning experience here for all of us.

Your contributions like this are always greatly appreciated.

By metmike - Dec. 14, 2023, 9:48 a.m.
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Not much change. The darker blues on the map just barely get into southwest Mato Grosso. MOST of the beans are grown N/NE of that in MG which will see around 3 inches of rain in 2 weeks. Argentina is perfect.

I would not call this a very bullish rainfall forecast. Too much rain in too many places......and the market dialed in the drought in Central Brazil weeks ago. Like Joe K used to say at Marketforum over a decade ago:

We are trading FUTURES not PASTures. 

By metmike - Dec. 14, 2023, 8:17 p.m.
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This is not a bullish weather forecast! Half of Brazil is now MORE THAN 50% of average rains. All of Argentina is MORE THAN 100% of average. 

Last 18z GEFS.

By metmike - Dec. 15, 2023, 9:33 a.m.
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Back to LESS rain for western/central parts of Brazil on the last 6z GEFS. Also less for Argentina. Not a pattern change but mainly model variability.

By metmike - Dec. 18, 2023, 6:15 a.m.
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Models still show central Brazil and mainly MG with just less than 50% rain with near optimal weather for s.Brazil and Argentina. 

The area in light blue in the center is all MG and around 25% of the Brazil beans. They should be getting 5+ inches during the 384 hours not 2-3 inches.

This was the last 6z GEFS.

By metmike - Dec. 18, 2023, 8:55 p.m.
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The last 2 model runs, especially this 18z GEFS run have increased the rains in C.Brazil MG. 

Abundance of rain elsewhere in Brazil but pretty dry in the southern parts of key N.Argentina growing areas. 

By metmike - Dec. 19, 2023, 9:37 a.m.
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The WETTER trend mentioned yesterday has continued for C.Brazil.  4" of rain for MG is still a bit below average but that's up 1"+ from  24 hours ago. I put that solution below it.

This was the just updated 6z GEFS.

6z from Monday morning

By metmike - Dec. 19, 2023, 9:18 p.m.
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The southwest quarter of Mato Grosso is drier but  the big deal now is that much of key Argentina growing areas are pretty dry. Only the farthest north has good rains. Almost 80% has less than 2 inches the next 2 weeks!


By metmike - Dec. 20, 2023, 12:17 p.m.
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There's been a massive pattern change taking place this week compared to recent weeks. Rains increasing in Central Brazil and drying up in Argentina.

Argentina was bombarded with heavy rains recently that helped their drought and will help lessen adversity from the upcoming pattern change to drier


The latest runs really picked up on this, especially in Coffee country, which now has ABOVE average rains.

March Coffee is down 12c at the moment because of this.


Coffee charts below:

1. 1 year. Note the drought helped surge from less than 150(strong support-Sept.) to 210 in less than 3 months. New yearly highs earlier this month...........then the forecast turned wet this week. Now we have a definitive triple top formation. 

2. 1 month. Note the double top and a RETEST of the previous highs yesterday

3. 1 week. Note that yesterday, despite increasing rains that caused prices to plunge on Monday, the market surged back to the highs again with a huge spike up which would have taken out all the weather traders short on the rains(or caused some huge drawdowns until today. 

4.  50 years. Coffee has only traded above 200 for very brief periods/spikes in the past. One of them was for several months in 2022, then this recent one that happened on a few days in December, including yesterday and the first hour of trading today. We're down to 190 at the moment

By metmike - Dec. 20, 2023, 8:17 p.m.
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The just updated 18z GEFS continues with the new MUCH WETTER pattern for C.Brazil, even though this solution is NOT AS WET. 

By metmike - Dec. 21, 2023, 12:10 p.m.
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Coffee snapped back, as much as almost +7c today but now up less than +3c at 193ish. The weather has turned BEARISH for Central and soybeans.

Argentina is the place that will be getting dry again early in 2024.

By metmike - Dec. 21, 2023, 3:18 p.m.
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Same idea as recent days, with the last 12z GEFS run. Much better rains for Central Brazil with the new pattern in January but Argentina dries out(after recent robust rains)

By metmike - Dec. 21, 2023, 3:31 p.m.
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This is based on the drought in Nov/Dec which should be helped from upcoming rains:

Karen Braun@kannbwx

Some analysts in #Brazil are describing the situation for #soybeans in the top state of Mato Grosso as "the worst year in history for the oilseed." MT soy yield may drop 20% below trend. This group says the previous worst for MT was in 89/90 with -11% from trend yield.


By metmike - Dec. 26, 2023, 9:50 a.m.
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Rains are below average in  parts of Argentina and S.Brazil but not completely dry.

By metmike - Dec. 27, 2023, 12:33 a.m.
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Too dry in some S.Brazil spots.  Also the southern parts of Argentina crop areas.

Just enough rain in many other places. Coffee weather looks good.

By metmike - Dec. 28, 2023, 11:44 a.m.
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Not a great deal of change in the last day to weather forecasts in South America. This was the last 6z GEFS that came out 6 hours ago, Total rains thru 384 hours, just like the other maps shown here recently with a tad more in some spots.

Big rains in Central Brazil. A dry patch in S. Brazil. A bit more rain for N.Argentina compared to earlier this week.

March soybeans now have 4 times the volume trading than January soybeans that are still the front month. 

That disparity will keep growing much wider until January goes off the board.

By metmike - Dec. 28, 2023, 2:11 p.m.
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Same trend with a tad more rain on this last 12z run of the GEFS.

By Jim_M - Dec. 28, 2023, 6:38 p.m.
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Thanks Mike!  I read something to this affect…..yes, there will be some crops lost, but it will be another record crop regardless.  

By mcfarm - Dec. 28, 2023, 7:02 p.m.
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By metmike - Dec. 29, 2023, 12:21 p.m.
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Thanks much, mcfarm.

Great link with lots of comments from knowledgeable people (though biased in many cases).

The last 6z GEFS has the most rain of any solution this week. The drier locations have shrunk and most spots get pretty good rains. These are 384 hour rain totals.

By metmike - Dec. 29, 2023, 1:49 p.m.
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Here's the last 12z GEFS just out and the last solution of 2023 with the markets open:

The solution doesn't matter. What will matter is what the models show in 3+ days, after the long weekend.

By mcfarm - Dec. 30, 2023, 1:19 p.m.
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new guestimate from NA and steve Irwin....163....first time for these guys to do SA but they are professionals and it deserves a  look....from Kory

By cutworm - Dec. 30, 2023, 2:48 p.m.
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Mcfarm do you have a link?

By metmike - Dec. 30, 2023, 6:13 p.m.
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Thanks much, mcfarm!

As cutworm mentioned, a link would be nice.

I have no disagreements with bullish crop estimates based on PAST weather.

The future weather has turned pretty wet/bearish. So whatever yield potential is left in Brazil will be maximized with a forecast that has this much rain.  A tad dry in southern Argentina growing areas but 4-5 inches of rain in a month isn't going to cause excessive stress, even with their fast draining/drying soils.

By mcfarm - Dec. 31, 2023, 11:29 a.m.
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From: kory 
Date: Fri, Dec 29, 2023 at 12:40 PM
Subject: Dec 29 audio western Parana and MT gossip   new audio from SA. Very seldom get live time reports and words like not good, disaster, never seen before in describing the crop in places. Other places, more 40 sacs/a than 65/a. Crops totally uneven. REally enjoy some real time reports...thanks Kory       

From: kory 
Date: Fri, Dec 29, 2023 at 12:40 PM
Subject: Dec 29 audio western Parana and MT gossip

Goias too

From: kory 
Date: Fri, Dec 29, 2023 at 12:40 PM
Subject: Dec 29 audio western Parana and MT gossip

Goias too

Goias too

By metmike - Dec. 31, 2023, 1:50 p.m.
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Pretty bearish weather in most of SA with these 2 week rain totals from the just out 12z GEFS model forecast. 

By metmike - Jan. 1, 2024, 3:57 p.m.
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Last 12z GEFS. That's a ton of rain for Brazil!

By Jim_M - Jan. 1, 2024, 5:36 p.m.
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Indeed!  Let it pour!  

By cutworm - Jan. 2, 2024, 9:43 a.m.
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By metmike - Jan. 2, 2024, 11:29 a.m.
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Thanks, cutworm!

Eric agrees with the wet forecast change noted over the weekend and the market's plunge lower today:


By Jim_M - Jan. 2, 2024, 5:28 p.m.
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By metmike - Jan. 3, 2024, 1:45 p.m.
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Just out 12z GEFS below. You won't see this much rain, almost everywhere they grow crops in January on a South America weather forecast for 2 weeks in too many years.

The market is aware of this now for sure, so most of it must have been dialed in with the huge plunge in prices, over $1 the past 1.5 months.

We're getting pretty close to key support now.

1 year below:

This is January, the front month still but March is the main month right now with the highest volume/open interest. Beans still in a downtrend the past year with lower highs but exactly at a potential uptrend line drawn from the May low to the Oct harvest low to where we are now. Should be some decent support/buying in this area.

5 years below

Dropping below the $12.50 May 2023 low would leave $12 as the next support level. Below that? The Abyss!

By metmike - Jan. 4, 2024, 11:23 a.m.
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No change. Near maximum bearish with optimal rains in a key developmental period, pod fill for almost all of Brazil AND Argentina. 

By mcfarm - Jan. 4, 2024, 4:10 p.m.
Like Reply this guy works for Roach Ag. He has lived and worked Brazil and has tons of contacts. He has what some may call the rest of the story when harvest is all said and done. Could get interesting and this market needs help.
By cutworm - Jan. 4, 2024, 7:13 p.m.
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But he didn't figure in Argentina? +20mmt

By mcfarm - Jan. 5, 2024, 12:01 p.m.
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hi cut worm. I think he wanted us to take Argy beans with world ending stocks....atleast that what he told us and if we cannot reduce that number...well....

By metmike - Jan. 5, 2024, 12:25 p.m.
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Busy getting ready for a Scholastic Chess of Indiana chess tournament we're hosting tomorrow.

The market has been trading the mega bearish weather forecast for SA during this key flowering and filling period.

Last 6z GEFS, total 2 week rains.  Small area in light blue with 50% average rains. Robust rains elsewhere.

By metmike - Jan. 8, 2024, 3:42 p.m.
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Robust rains almost EVERYWHERE in South America the next 2 weeks as seen on the last 12z GEFS model. This is a key time frame for flowering of soybeans and the pod fill that follows.

Beans have been collapsing lower with increasing rains in the forecast for weeks now but so far this year, the magnitude of the rains in the forecast has been especially prolific/beneficial and widespread.

By Jim_M - Jan. 8, 2024, 6:36 p.m.
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200 mmt’s this year for South America?  

By cutworm - Jan. 8, 2024, 6:48 p.m.
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205 mmt

By metmike - Jan. 10, 2024, 12:15 p.m.
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Estimates for Friday's USDA report:

Nothing new..........near perfect weather the next 2 weeks everywhere in South America. This was the last 6z GEFS run.

By Jim_M - Jan. 11, 2024, 8:51 p.m.
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Thanks Mike.

Anyone for 210mmt by time it is all said and done?

By metmike - Jan. 12, 2024, 2:47 a.m.
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Here's the last 0z GEFS. Same story. USDA report expectations are a big factor here.

USDA was extremely bearish:

By metmike - Jan. 16, 2024, 2:12 p.m.
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Weather is taking on less importance as we progress thru the 2nd half of the growing season in SA.

Harvest is coming up for C.Brazil beans, so excessive rains would be bullish. That is NOT in the forecast.

It is turning dry in Argentina, which could have some negative impact on pod filling and yields there if rains completely shut down.

However, the crop is almost made.

Karen Braun@kannbwx

Crop progress, Parana, #Brazil, Jan. 15: #Soybeans 64% good condition, was 71% last week and 86% at the month's start. Beans are 7% harvested, 1st crop #corn 5% harv, 2nd corn 4% planted. 1st corn 73% good condition (80% at month's start).

By metmike - Jan. 19, 2024, 8:31 p.m.
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Something is really catching my attention in Argentina. They will be heading into a 2 week dry period that will start featuring some intense heat.

The market has not reacted so far because Argentina has been bombarded with tons of rain over the last month and soil moisture is great. 

However, the growing season is always farther behind in Argentina vs Brazil and the beans have well over a month to go for the crop to be made. 

Beans are just flowering and maybe early pod fill but we have started a key developmental stage for beans in Argentina that will last thru February. NO RAIN and intense heat that lasted for several weeks is going to reduce yields, especially if it continues in February. 

The USDA dealt the beans a tremendous bearish blow the week before this one but that should be dialed in as well as the great weather to this point.

  I'm feeling beans could get some bullish traction/buying  with this weather story the rest of the month IF there continues to be no rain and heat in the 2 week forecast for the one below.


  • More first phase corn and sunflowers now being harvested.
  • The corn planted during the second phase is entering pollination.
  • Full season soybeans setting and filling pods.
  • Double crop soybeans flowering.
By Jim_M - Jan. 21, 2024, 8:39 p.m.
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Thanks Mike!

By metmike - Jan. 21, 2024, 11:30 p.m.
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You’re extremely welcome, Jim!

The forecast is still mostly dry for around 12 days in Argentina with intense heat in week 2 but rains break out with a pattern change towards the end of week 2.

So the weather is still bullish but not AS bullish as the Friday post. This is at least partially responsible for beans being +7c at the moment.

By metmike - Jan. 22, 2024, 1:29 p.m.
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Overnight, the beans dropped to lower into early this morning but have found some sustained buying since then and are back up 8c, near the highs.

The Argentina weather is a bit more bullish this morning with the rains late in week 2, being delayed an extra day or so.

 This is the total rain forecast from the just out 12z GEFS thru 12 days. Not much for Argentina. Each new, updated run should feature the rains getting closer...........but they keep delaying the rains until after day 12 which adds more time to the dry period before that.

Additionally, we are seeing more upper level, blocking ridging in far N.Argentina and for sure some very intense heat developing (100+) especially in the western parts of this area, starting at the end of week 1.

I'm thinking there's a great chance that the lows are in for the beans for awhile.

This is the time of year when they make their seasonal/yearly lows, sometimes until harvest pressure(or until a big crop is made during the growing season).

We closed on the highs, which is always a bullish market mentality indicator. ~+12c for the day. 

By Jim_M - Jan. 22, 2024, 2:25 p.m.
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Corn is not impressed with the forecast 

By metmike - Jan. 23, 2024, 11:50 a.m.
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Wonderful observation, Jim!  

Corn has not been following beans higher this week. Even now, S=+5c and C=-1c.

Last model is about the same for Argentina:

I'm only showing the forecast thru day 10 this time to demonstrate why its bullish for Argentina. Almost no rain in their key growing region! BEYOND day 10 is when the pattern changes to increase rain chances but thats a long time to go without rain, especially with the forecast featuring intense heat for several days before rain chances start to increase.

By metmike - Jan. 24, 2024, 9:38 a.m.
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Similar forecast. Turning hot and staying dry thru around 9-10 days.........followed by increasing chances for rain.

Below is the just out 6z GEFS.

1. Total rains thru 9 days. Mostly dry AND HOT!

2. Total rains thru 15 days. Rains returning and increasing after day 9.


1. Rains the last 30 days-on the wet side in Argentina

2. Rains the last 90 days-unusually wet for Argentina

This is why the market is not much MORE concerned about this period of adversely dry and hot period.

By metmike - Jan. 25, 2024, 12:20 p.m.
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The last 6Z GEFS was actually DRIER and more bullish for Argentina! Why did the soybeans just give up their gains, that took several days to slowly grind out???

This is what I think did it. The plunge started immediately after the export sales number came out. Note the BEARISH, red number below. 

Karen Braun@kannbwx

Mexico was the featured buyer of U.S. #corn & #wheat last week and #China the top buyer of #soybeans (though a good portion was switched from unknown destinations). Beef sales of 22.4k tons were the largest in almost a year, led by South Korean bookings.


Soybeans have been a BEAR market for quite some time and funds have been piling on with the selling. The market fundamentals are in the toilet, especially after the mega bearish USDA report earlier this month. Traders and the market are less threatened from hot/dry in a key growing region, during a key time frame when there is a huge surplus which has imposed a bearish mentality to traders.

So bullish weather news this week was greeted with apprehensive but sustained buying then the bearish news at 7:30 am,  resulted in enthusiastic, aggressive selling that forced prices lower quickly to find enough bid volume to match the selling. 

There could have been other items that I don't know about and the weather in Argentina is STILL BULLISH, so I think the beans could still get traction again, as long as the weather forecast gets drier. 

FINALLY: As mentioned previously with the 30 and 90 day rain maps, Argentina has had massive rains this growing season with the best vegetative health for January in the last 20 years, so it will take MORE hot and dry than usual to hurt the crop.

By metmike - Jan. 26, 2024, 12:59 p.m.
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Starting during the middle of next week, Argentina will be roasting. 100 deg. temps and no rain for a week. This is a key time frame for developing. 

The market clearly doesn't care here on 1-26-24, with abundant soil moisture currently. We'll see what the market thinks next week, especially if that kind of weather continues well into week 2. 

By metmike - Jan. 28, 2024, 6:43 p.m.
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The latest GEFS runs still show the weather turning HOT this week, then dry thru around day 9 but THEN, really cranks up the rains as week 2 progresses.

By metmike - Jan. 29, 2024, 3:10 p.m.
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Same weather story with the dry, turning very hot weather in Argentina being transitory and not a long lasting pattern. 

A soil moisture profile that was almost full to start the month will help to minimize the adversity of this, temporary bullish weather. 

We got a 30c+ bounce  from speculators buying early/mid last week from this hot/dry weather popping up but models showing the end point in week 2, have sabotaged the speculative buying energy. 

Breaking to new lows for the move here is a major negative technical development. We are at some mega longer term support here. Let's see how it plays out/if we can hold here.

Funds are short and have been selling.

1. 1 year chart

2. 10 year chart

By metmike - Jan. 30, 2024, 1:05 p.m.
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"Breaking to new lows for the move here is a major negative technical development. We are at some mega longer term support here. Let's see how it plays out/if we can hold here."

We did hold and reversed higher early this morning, being up double digits most of the morning. The forecast is mostly the same. Dry and turning HOT until ~9 days from now, when rains return with gusto.



The beans are finally reacting to 100+ coming up to Argentina growing areas in less than a week.

By metmike - Jan. 31, 2024, 1:47 p.m.
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After a spike lower early today, the beans have recovered most of the losses. The  late morning 12z GEFS took out around half of the week 2 rains. Week 1 still has 0 rains and turning very hot. This is bullish weather!

By metmike - Jan. 31, 2024, 8:53 p.m.
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The last 18z GEFS added rain back to the week 2 forecast in Argentina.

Time to start a new thread, don't you think?

By metmike - Jan. 31, 2024, 10:48 p.m.
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The ECMWF forecasts a long stretch of near 100 °F #corn production weighted daily maximum temperatures.   Our yield model indicates significant yield declines.


By cutworm - Feb. 1, 2024, 4:39 a.m.
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i think eric s indicated that Buenos Aires may miss out on the week 2 rains. Is this what you see?

Buenos Aires is 28% of Argentine corn area.

Argentina_Corn.png (3300×2550) (

I think Argentine corn could be pollinating during this heat spell? 

Argentina Production (

By metmike - Feb. 1, 2024, 7:02 a.m.
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Yes, cutworm. 

this market is really hard to trade. It completely ignored this weather in Argentina for days,  then suddenly woke up on Tuesday.

still can’t hold gains. Just not lasting long enough!

ps Buenos Aires will not miss the rains but will get less than other areas.

Added the last 6z GEFS below which really boosted rain amounts up close to 2 inches now. All week 2.

By metmike - Feb. 2, 2024, 9:28 a.m.
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This last 6z GEFS had 2+ inch rains everywhere in Argentina in week 2.

3+ inches in much of the highest production areas. This is entirely week 2 rain below.

By metmike - Feb. 4, 2024, 8:06 p.m.
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Same bearish story. Just out 18z GEFS.  2+ inches everywhere in Argentina. 3+ inches southwest 1/2.

By metmike - Feb. 6, 2024, 1:20 p.m.
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Any concerns about rain for Argentina in February have been WASHED away on recent weather model forecasts. The market is no longer trading this item and it should be dialed in by now. If weather is a tradeable item, it might be too much rain at some point.

Factors other than weather are likely more important.