THE GRAIN SECTOR

"Despite what we hear with most market chatter, US grains and oilseeds will not be driven by the strength and/or weakness of the US dollar next year.   February,2018.... I had the privilege of attending a US Soybean Export Council meeting in Cartagena, Colombia. One of the speakers, Mr. Bell Chen of RJ O’Brien said something to the effect of, “China is doing the calculations to remove US supplies as much as it can from its imports”. Since then, the US has fallen to a secondary player in the global soybean market with the latest WASDE projection showing US exports of 47.76 mmt, roughly 48% of Brazil’s estimated 99.5 mmt. Additionally, for the second consecutive marketing year the US is expected to export less corn than Brazil."

• What matters is geopolitics (e.g. trade wars, real wars, etc.) and weather.