Weather Thursday
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Started by metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 9:45 a.m.

A Wonderful August 9th to you!

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!

Huge dent in TX/OK drought coming up!

Mostly dry for most of the Midwest back to N/C Plains for the next 5 days. Then rains really increase for the southeast parts of the Cornbelt.

The Northwest half of the Cornbelt looks pretty dry!

 The latest rain forecasts are below...........broken down into each period coming up. Then the 1 week totals.

Day 1 below:

Day 2 below:

Day 3 below:

Days 4-5 below:

 Days 6-7 below:

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 9:46 a.m.
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Excessive Rainfall threat. Shifts southwest to a place thats normally dry!

Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

Day 3 forecast below

Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

By metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 9:48 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk.  Hit the map for full screen.  Not very high-weak jet stream.

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 9:50 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and Friday.

Still Great in the Great Lakes and surrounding areas.

Hot along all the Coasts.

Record smashing heat along the West Coast up to Canada.....shifting to N.Rockies/N.High Plains Friday!!


By metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 9:58 a.m.
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Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!  Humid over the southern parts of the country.

A tad humid Midwest.

Current Dew Points

By metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 9:59 a.m.
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Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature. Feeling sultry in the south. NIce N.PLains/Upper Midwest.

Current US Heat Index Map

By metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 10:05 a.m.
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Highs days 3-7.

Not as hot as recently still very warm many spots. Grrrrreat in the Great Lakes.

m/hot in some places.  Great in the Great Lakes/Northeast.

By metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 10:06 a.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?  We are now 3 weeks past the climatological time of year when temperatures are the hottest.

Above average West/Rockies to N.Plains and eventually Upper Midwest.  A bit below S.Plains from clouds/rain.

High temperature departures:

Low Temperature Departures:

By metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 10:09 a.m.
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Weather system from Northeast back to S.Plains(where its more active). New reinforcing cold front Upper Midwest. High pressure far Southeast with heat and Gulf moisture on its backside.

Current US Surface Weather Map

By metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 10:09 a.m.
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Here is the latest radar image:

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

By metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 10:10 a.m.
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Satellite picture. Clouds TX to Tenessee Valley 

US Infrared Satellite Map

By metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 10:11 a.m.
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Rains the past 24 hours.    South and East. 

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"




By metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 10:12 a.m.
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Missouri  to S.Plains still in bad shape....but they got some nice rains. TX/OK to get more. Big drought is shrinking!

By metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 10:14 a.m.
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Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

By metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 10:16 a.m.
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Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday.


Drought Monitor for conus

By metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 10:19 a.m.
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Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.

Today:  Record smashing heat along the West Coast!  Pleasant Great Lakes.
NCEP Ensemble t = 024 hour forecast product

In 5+ days:

Heat is moving around. Still hot West......spews east briefly.........Northeast.
NCEP Ensemble t = 144 hour forecast product

In 10+ days   Hot West again!!!!  Some heat spills east.
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

Day 15  Hot West to N.Plains.............How much moves east?NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 12:01 p.m.
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Latest 0z run of the Canadian model ensembles. Slight majority have some troughing dipping down into the Upper Midwest to Northeast. Much uncertainty.

The top map is the ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average.


Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Aug 24, 2018 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)

By metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 12:14 p.m.
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Below are some of the 0z GFS individual ensembles at the end of 2 weeks. Alot of disagreement. Below that is the last 6z GFS ensemble average:

Forecast Hour:  360
Image URL:



By metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 12:16 p.m.
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The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4. Hot West! Around average East?

Dry Midwest!

Precip below:

By metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 7:17 p.m.
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The maps below are from the NWS extended outlooks.  

The forecasts below have plenty of above normal temperatures(I think future outlooks may take out some of the heat) and there is normal to above normal rain in the southeast half of the Cornbelt.

However, the  N/C Plains to Upper Midwest(Western 1/3) of the Cornbelt look pretty dry the next 2 weeks. This is also the area that sees temperatures the most above normal. If the grain market wants to trade bullish weather, this will be it. 

6-10 day Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


8-14 day Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 7:25 p.m.
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Extreme weather days 3-7:

Hot for N.Plains this weekend. 

Heavy and welcome rains TX/OK Sun/Mon, shifting northeast to the Central Cornbelt next Tue/Wed. 

Those rains next week will determine how the market interprets weather for the grains.

If the forecast shifts them farther east and hits only the eastern Cornbelt............the weather will be viewed as bullish.

If they go farther west and include all of IA, they will be viewed as even more bearish. At this time, they are bearish.


By tjc - Aug. 9, 2018, 7:52 p.m.
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  So weather is currently bullish wheat?

By metmike - Aug. 9, 2018, 8:08 p.m.
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If you are referring to US weather, it's not the time of year that weather has an effect. Making a huge dent to the S.Plains drought is bearish wheat  but the crop won't be planted for months.

We are harvesting the Spring Wheat, so I doubt the hot/dry makes much difference in the N.Plains.

Europe's hot/dry weather has already effected their Spring wheat which should also be getting harvested. Traders might react to yields reports during harvest which was from weather that happened weeks ago.

Australia had a drought in the southeast, last I checked which was a month ago.

By wglassfo - Aug. 10, 2018, 2:53 a.m.
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HI Mike

I appreciate your weather and rainfall comments in the Great Lakes region. That is my stomping grounds and since I can only get 1/2 of the maps to come up, I have to look at one side and then scroll over and look again

I can scroll sideways, but your Great Lakes comments really help

Tks Mike