Severe threat 2-27/28-2024
9 responses | 0 likes
Started by metmike - Feb. 27, 2024, 2:55 p.m.

Enhanced risk area late today, Tuesday into early Wednesday.

Local NWS from Paducah area of responsibility, including southern Indiana:

By metmike - Feb. 27, 2024, 2:58 p.m.
Like Reply

Tracking the storm:

Current Hazards at the link below.

Go to the link below, hit hazards box in the top right hand corner(it will also define all the color codes), if its not already in the hazards mode when you load the link.

 Then you can hit any spot on the map, including where you live and it will go to that NWS with all the comprehensive local weather information for that/your county.                                                                                                                 



New radar product below   

Go to: "Select View" then "Local Radar"

Hit the purple circle to see that local radar site


                          This link below provides some great data. After going to the link, hit "Mesoanalysis" then,  the center of any box for the area that you want, then go to observation on the far left, then surface observations to get constantly updated surface observations or hit another of the dozens of choices.

 Northwest Southwest Central Plains Northern Plains Radar Very High Resolution

By metmike - Feb. 27, 2024, 3:01 p.m.
Like Reply
By metmike - Feb. 27, 2024, 10:36 p.m.
Like Reply

TORNADO WATCH to be issued for this  area above in the next couple of hours(before Midnight).

That would include all the areas surrounding Evansville, IN.

By metmike - Feb. 27, 2024, 11:06 p.m.
Like Reply

Scroll up for previous posts

As expected, they just issued the tornado watch......until 5am but the threat will be over BEFORE then.

Nothing for at least a couple of hours and keep in mind that we see this type of threat at least a dozen times every year and this is NOT one of the highest threats.

Above this is a MODERATE risk and above that is a HIGH risk.

We see those EVEN HIGHER RISK categories several times/year.

This one has people freaking out because they'll be in bed.

You can monitor the weather overnight. Look at local radar images.

If there are storms that start blossoming and generate WARNINGS to your west, it's time to be ready to go to a safe place if a TORNADO WARNING is issued for your county.

Know that, even when we have an enhanced risk event like tonight, the chance of you being injured or killed in a car accident on your way to work tomorrow is MUCH higher than this risk many thousands of times. 

However, we can identify the highest risks tonight. You go to the safe spot in your home if your area is being targeted by a violent tornado(violent tornadoes are  extremely rare).........and reduce the potential harm EVEN MORE!

80%+ of tornadoes WILL NOT HURT YOU IN YOUR HOUSE.

The top strongest 5% and especially top 2% are the killers. Those are extraordinarily rare and not likely this time.

By metmike - Feb. 28, 2024, 12:22 a.m.
Like Reply

A key element with STRONG and VIOLENT tornadoes is a powerful jet stream.

The sliver of yellow is at the top of the color bar and represents 200 KNOTS/hour at the 250 mb level on the GFS model.

This is around 230+ mph!

How high up is 250 mb??? Around 34,000 feet, which is around 6.5 miles above the ground.


Standard Height
1000 MB 364          ft111 m
925 MB2498 ft 762 m
850 MB4781 ft1458 m
700 MB9882 ft 3013 m
500 MB18289 ft5576 m
400 MB23574 ft7187 m
300 MB30065 ft9166 m
250 MB33999 ft10366 m
200 MB38662 ft11787 m
Copyright © 2007


What is the difference between a nautical mile and a knot?

The nautical mile measures distance and the knot measures speed

Nautical Miles


Nautical miles are used to measure the distance traveled through the water. A nautical mile is slightly longer than a mile on land, equaling 1.1508 land-measured (or statute) miles. The nautical mile is based on the Earth’s longitude and latitude coordinates, with one nautical mile equaling one minute of latitude.


What is Knot Speed & How Does It Compare to MPH?


 Unit of Measure
Surface windsmph
Hurricaneskts (mph in public forecasts)
Station Plots (on weather maps)kts
Marine forecastskts
Units of Wind for Various Weather Events and Forecast Products


How to Read Wind Barbs

By metmike - Feb. 28, 2024, 2:14 a.m.
Like Reply

Here at 1:10am CST, Storms just started to erupt quickly in the last 40 minutes, along the IL/KY border.

Heading E/NE, maybe staying south of Evansville.

Another mostly isolated strong storm in IL, aiming towards  Vincennes.

Additional smaller cells in IL. Any one of which could amplify quickly.

Looks we're going to see  several discrete small lines of storms forming initially. Possibly coalescing/congealing into 1 long bowing line before dawn And  AFTER the  cold front and threat has passed east of Evansville!

Go to this link for the latest radar images and warnings:

By metmike - Feb. 28, 2024, 5:30 a.m.
Like Reply

The threat for severe weather is east and southeast of Evansville here, just after 4am.

This was the new tornado watch issued over an hour ago:


Not very many storm reports  for the Evansville area and no tornadoes close to us as of 5am CST. …..with the threat now over. As mentioned previously, we have HIGHER risk assessments than what this was on several occasions in the year but this one seemed scarier because it’s February and a nocturnal event.

This map is updated thru early today at 5am, I believe

By metmike - Feb. 28, 2024, 5:43 a.m.
Like Reply

Look at what happened to the temperature/wind when the cold front went thru  2+ hours ago.

Mid =72 Deg.  SW wind 16 G-30mph

1am =71 Deg. SW wind 20 G-28mph

2am =72 Deg.  SW wind 20 G-33mph

3am =51 Deg. NW wind 18 G-41mph

4am =44 Deg. NW wind 16 G-32mph

Evansville, Evansville Regional Airport
    Enter Your "City, ST" or zip code   


AirDwpt6 houraltimeter
sea level
1 hr3 hr6 hr
WeatherSky Cond.Temperature (ºF)Relative
PressurePrecipitation (in.)
2803:54NW 16 G 3210.00Mostly CloudySCT036 BKN1004436


2802:54NW 18 G 418.00 Light RainFEW038 SCT065 OVC0855145


2801:54SW 20 G 3310.00Mostly CloudyBKN0507258


2800:54SW 20 G 2810.00Partly CloudySCT0447158


2723:54SW 16 G 3010.00A Few CloudsFEW0467258737161%NANA29.45997.0

By metmike - Feb. 28, 2024, 5:50 a.m.
Like Reply

The maps on this page above are constantly updated and show the colder air pouring in as well as the distinct kink in the isobars/pressure pattern from the cold front having passed well to our east now: