Natural Gas 3-7-24
26 responses | 0 likes
Started by metmike - March 7, 2024, 3:37 p.m.

Obviously this widespread mild weather resulted in low natural gas demand for heating and resulted in  a very small withdrawal for late February.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php

Comments
By metmike - March 7, 2024, 3:40 p.m.
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-40 Bcf, VERY bearish. Look at the blue line on the graph below.........RECORD amount in storage for this time of year by an INCREASINGLY wide margin!

  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending March 1, 2024   |  Released: March 7, 2024 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: March 14, 2024                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(03/01/23)
5-year average
(2019-23) 
Region03/01/2402/23/24net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East422  453  -31  -31   426  -0.9  377  11.9  
Midwest575  600  -25  -25   523  9.9  449  28.1  
Mountain169  169  0  0   94  79.8  95  77.9  
Pacific219  217  2  2   86  154.7  153  43.1  
South Central949  935  14  14   924  2.7  708  34.0  
   Salt285  275  10  10   261  9.2  199  43.2  
   Nonsalt664  660  4  4   663  0.2  510  30.2  
Total2,334  2,374  -40  -40   2,054  13.6  1,783  30.9  

Totals  may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,334 Bcf as of Friday, March 1, 2024, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net decrease of 40 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 280 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 551 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,783 Bcf. At 2,334 Bcf, total working gas is  above the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range

+++++++++++++

Natural Gas Futures Sinking After Storage Report Shows Surplus Swelling — MidDay Market Snapshot

https://www.naturalgasintel.com/natural-gas-futures-sinking-after-storage-report-shows-surplus-swelling-midday-market-snapshot/

  • Natural gas futures grinding lower through midday after on-target storage report
  • April Nymex contract off 7.5 cents to $1.854/MMBtu as of 2 p.m. ET; May down 8.4 cents to $1.988
 
  • U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported 40 Bcf withdrawal for week ended March 1
  • EIA print “pretty much at market expectations,” according to Wood Mackenzie’s Eric McGuire
  • Per McGuire: “Compared to degree days and normal seasonality, this week’s report is 1.7 Bcf/d loose versus the prior five-year average”
  • Lower 48 surplus to five-year average now at 551 Bcf; total Lower 48 working gas in storage at 2,334 Bcf, above five-year max of 2,077 Bcf, EIA data show
  • ICE End of Draw Index Future recently closed at 2,250 Bcf; End of Storage Index at 3,888 Bcf
  • Cash prices pulling back amid mild weather;... 

 


By metmike - March 8, 2024, 10:23 a.m.
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Previous thread:

                Natural gas 2-13-24            

                            47 responses |  

                Started by metmike - Feb. 13, 2024, 1:09 p.m.      https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/102248/


By metmike - March 8, 2024, 10:33 a.m.
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                Re: Re: Re: Natural gas 2-13-24                                                   

                By metmike - Feb. 16, 2024, 11:17 p.m.    

                   

Every one of the bottoms on this 35 year graph was in Jan-Mar time frame,  with last year's extended to the start of April.

Thats when supplies were LOW and the amount of space to put natural gas is the greatest.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas


We're down around the 2016 COVID lows. Which should serve as strong support but there's things going on that I can't know about that could be having a big impact.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

                               

Here's the latest on 3-8-24

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas



By metmike - March 11, 2024, 11:27 a.m.
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NG opened higher last evening on some much chillier weather models over the weekend and small specs being overly excited............but late March is TOO LATE in the heating season for any amount of cold to make a substantive difference in the amount of demand from residential heating.......especially in the Southeast, where CDDs will be passing up HDDs in another 45 days or so:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

Natural Gas Futures Unswayed by Cooler March Temps as Prices Skid Lower

+++++++++++++++++++

The overnight, 0z European model being -6 HDDs hurt the cold weather cause even more!

By metmike - March 14, 2024, 10:16 a.m.
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The warmth last week for the period used with this EIA weekly storage report was EXTREMELY mild. The number will only cause the record high amount in storage for this date to grow.

Could we actually have an extremely early, small injection???

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php



++++++++++++++++

Natural Gas Futures Slightly Lower as Early Injection from EIA a Possibility

As traders prepared to digest updated government inventory data that could reveal an unusually early net injection following blowtorch winter weather, natural gas futures hovered just shy of even early Thursday. The April Nymex contract was trading at $1.648/MMBtu at around 8:35 a.m. ET, off 1.0 cent. May was down 1.3 cents to $1.771. The…


By metmike - March 14, 2024, 10:30 a.m.
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Slightly bullish vs expectations? -9 Bcf

But the blue line on the graph below tells us that for early March, this is the most ng in storage in history.

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending March 8, 2024   |  Released: March 14, 2024 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: March 21, 2024                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(03/08/23)
5-year average
(2019-23) 
Region03/08/2403/01/24net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East412  422  -10  -10   398  3.5  345  19.4  
Midwest561  575  -14  -14   497  12.9  418  34.2  
Mountain167  169  -2  -2   88  89.8  91  83.5  
Pacific213  219  -6  -6   75  184.0  147  44.9  
South Central972  949  23  23   931  4.4  695  39.9  
   Salt294  285  9  9   265  10.9  195  50.8  
   Nonsalt678  664  14  14   666  1.8  501  35.3  
Total2,325  2,334  -9  -9   1,989  16.9  1,696  37.1  
Totals  may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,325 Bcf as of Friday, March 8, 2024, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net decrease of 9 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 336 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 629 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,696 Bcf. At 2,325 Bcf, total working gas is  above the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2019 through 2023. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

By metmike - March 21, 2024, 10:30 a.m.
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First injection of the season........this was expected!

Note how far above the 5 year average the blue line is on the graph of storage below!

  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending March 15, 2024   |  Released: March 21, 2024 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: March 28, 2024 

                                                                                                                     

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(03/15/23)
5-year average
(2019-23) 
Region03/15/2403/08/24net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East406  412  -6  -6   365  11.2  323  25.7  
Midwest551  561  -10  -10   469  17.5  397  38.8  
Mountain166  167  -1  -1   85  95.3  88  88.6  
Pacific216  213  3  3   72  200.0  144  50.0  
South Central993  972  21  21   929  6.9  701  41.7  
   Salt300  294  6  6   263  14.1  202  48.5  
   Nonsalt694  678  16  16   665  4.4  499  39.1  
Total2,332  2,325  7  7   1,921  21.4  1,654  41.0  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,332 Bcf as of Friday, March 15, 2024, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 7 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 411 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 678 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,654 Bcf. At 2,332 Bcf, total working gas is  above the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2019 through 2023. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

+++++++++++++++++++

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php

7 day temperatures for this report, ending, 1 week ago today.  Extremely mild over the Eastern 2/3rds of the country, especially for the high population centers along the Northern Tier that have the highest HDD demand for residential heating of houses in March.

By metmike - March 21, 2024, 11:39 p.m.
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April Natural Gas Futures Extend Losses After Storage Build; Cash Prices Unfazed by Weather

  

Markets  

North American Natural Gas Prices Look for Support Amid U.S. LNG Permit Freeze – Mexico Spotlight


+++++++++++

Beats me where the price is going. Seasonals really turn up here and last thru May, so I sure wouldn't be short.

The Feb/March period is the one which features the most significant lows in the year. In 2023, with extremely bearish fundamentals and massive storage growth vs average that started in September 2022, that low didn't happen until the start of April.

https://charts.equityclock.com/natural-gas-futures-ng-seasonal-chart 



By metmike - March 22, 2024, 11:17 a.m.
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Natural Gas Futures Called Slightly Lower as Early Injection Confirms Lack of Weather

 With an unusually early storage injection seemingly confirming market assumptions around balances following a stretch of extremely mild weather, natural gas futures were treading water early Friday. The April Nymex contract was off 0.6 cents to $1.677/MMBtu as of 8:40 a.m. ET. May was trading at $1.828, off 0.3 cents. The U.S. Energy Information Administration… 

Is U.S. Natural Gas Rig Count Rebound Unfolding? Look to Second Half of ‘24, Say Experts



metmike: Looks pretty flat to me.


https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_rotary_rigs



By metmike - March 27, 2024, 12:53 p.m.
Like Reply

Yesterday:

April Natural Gas Futures End Tumultuous Day Sinking Into Expiration; Cash Up


++++++++++=

May natural gas is now the new front month. Down even more today!

The charts below are not entirely interchangeable because they are calculated with different time frames but still give us a great understanding.

For instance, the monthly price chart is of the continuous month which shows a huge spike up for yesterday's session.

NO!

All we did was rollover from the April to the May contract which had the typical price premium.

The longer range charts show that we are at extremely low prices.......similar to the 1990's

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas





Related to understanding the rollover from April to the May contract yesterday and some concept associated with it:

Understanding Futures Expiration & Contract Roll

https://www.cmegroup.com/education/courses/introduction-to-futures/understanding-futures-expiration-contract-roll.html

What Is Front Month? Definition, How It Works, and Example

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/front-month-contract.asp

++++++++++++


Tomorrow should go back to an EIA drawdown(after the small and very unusual injection last week), likely close to the historical average.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php

+++++++++++++++++++

Added:

WOW, look at the blue line, how far it is into record storage territory for late March!

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending March 22, 2024   |  Released: March 28, 2024 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: April 4, 2024 

                                                                                                                                

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(03/22/23)
5-year average
(2019-23) 
Region03/22/2403/15/24net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East387  406  -19  -19   346  11.8  308  25.6  
Midwest528  551  -23  -23   444  18.9  380  38.9  
Mountain166  166  0  0   83  100.0  87  90.8  
Pacific223  216  7  7   73  205.5  145  53.8  
South Central991  993  -2  -2   920  7.7  706  40.4  
   Salt294  300  -6  -6   262  12.2  208  41.3  
   Nonsalt698  694  4  4   658  6.1  498  40.2  
Total2,296  2,332  -36  -36   1,866  23.0  1,627  41.1  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,296 Bcf as of Friday, March 22, 2024, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net decrease of 36 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 430 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 669 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,627 Bcf. At 2,296 Bcf, total working gas is  above the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2019 through 2023. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

By metmike - April 1, 2024, 12:40 p.m.
Like Reply

Natural Gas Futures Extend Gains Early Amid ‘Market Noise’; Production Estimates Dip

+++++++

April is NOT a weather market for natural gas. Too late in the heating season, too early in the cooling season. The big snowstorm and cold in the Northeast this week will just be a blip's worth of demand in a market with record smashing high storage for this time of year.

Seasonals in April are extremely positive, however.

The EIA storage report at 9:30am Thursday should show a decent drawdown for late March. These were the temps for that period.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php




By metmike - April 1, 2024, 9:30 p.m.
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The last 12z European model ensembles shows why this current, short lived (6 day) blip higher in HDDs is a nothing burger in early April:


By metmike - April 4, 2024, 2:47 a.m.
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1.  1 week-climbing higher-solid strength/buying

2. 1 year-Seasonal high in early Nov. Seasonal spike low in Feb.

3. 30+ years-historically low prices because of record smashing/huge storage levels


https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas


By metmike - April 4, 2024, 12:47 p.m.
Like Reply

Look at the blue line on the graph below. Storage continues to be mega bearish. Highest ever for this time of year in history. 

Interesting note: We constantly here about the climate crisis causing everything bad and nothing good. It hurts all good forms of  life but somehow the exact same conditions........are perfect for all bad forms of life. Every time we have extreme weather from natural variation(even extreme cold) somehow, climate change played a role.(the truth is that this is a an authentic, scientific climate optimum for MOST life).

The truth is, we basically superimposed 2 deg. F of warming on the planet and MOST of that is in the coldest places, during the coldest times of year. Same weather systems/meteorology. Same laws of physics. Same natural variations........just 2 deg. F less cold in the coldest places and +125 parts per million of beneficial CO2(the building block for all life), that's still only half the optimal level of CO2 for most life.

Why am I bringing it up in this post?

One of the most profound REAL impacts from climate change that the media and others should be shouting out about if they were honest and objective would be the amount of natural gas in storage right now at the end of the mildest United States Winter in history. 

How is this not a wonderful benefit? If this were the hottest Summer in history, we would have heard/read about it every hour of every day. 

Because of this, a key energy source that we use to heat/cool our homes and generate electricity is the highest ever in storage and much of this is because we had a mild Winter.

Now consumers will have low natural prices and lower energy bills.

Now there will be less inflation from the utility energy sector.

Now we are covered by a massive energy security blanket for much of 2024.

We would NEVER want to attribute such a positive thing to a climate crisis.

Again, only part of that was caused by climate change and most of it from natural variation but the part from climate change WAS BENEFICIAL to ALL consumers and everybody that doesn't make money from higher prices. You will NEVER see that objective truth anywhere..............but here!


  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending March 29, 2024   |  Released: April 4, 2024 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: April 11, 2024 

                                                                                                                                       

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(03/29/23)
5-year average
(2019-23) 
Region03/29/2403/22/24net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East363  387  -24  -24   337  7.7  298  21.8  
Midwest510  528  -18  -18   426  19.7  369  38.2  
Mountain162  166  -4  -4   81  100.0  88  84.1  
Pacific227  223  4  4   73  211.0  149  52.3  
South Central996  991  5  5   920  8.3  723  37.8  
   Salt294  294  0  0   263  11.8  216  36.1  
   Nonsalt701  698  3  3   657  6.7  507  38.3  
Total2,259  2,296  -37  -37   1,837  23.0  1,626  38.9  

Totals  may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,259 Bcf as of Friday, March 29, 2024, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net decrease of 37 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 422 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 633 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,626 Bcf. At 2,259 Bcf, total working gas is  above the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2019 through 2023. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

May Natural Gas Futures Fizzle After EIA Prints 37 Bcf Storage Pull 

 


The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported a withdrawal of 37 Bcf natural gas from storage for the week ended March 29. The result fell just shy of expectations and, with inventories still plump and injections on the horizon, left Nymex natural gas futures under pressure. Ahead of the 10:30 a.m. ET government… 

+++++++++++++

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

By baker - April 4, 2024, 7:11 p.m.
Like Reply

With natural gas prices in Texas Minus - below zero.  And charts looking close to  a bottom I am out of my shorts and going long.  Adding if it drops more.  Seems similar to the time we bought oil when it was minus below zero and corn back every time it went below $2 etc.  Yes maybe like gambling but, it is also almost a can't lose position.

PS.  I don't trade like this.  This time and the time oil was below zero and when corn went below #2 is the only times I do something like this.  Most of the time I just trade for a few days to at most 1 or 2 month duration.

By metmike - April 4, 2024, 9:08 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks a ton, baker.

I use the weather's influence for my shorter term trades and the weather has no impact here but consider everything else. Your thoughts make good sense. How long can ng remain well below $2?

The storage surplus must stay huge. Eroding it to back within the 5 year range is almost for sure going to cause prices to get back well above $2, maybe to $3. 

But the market knows this for sure too. August ng is at $2.4. December ng is at $3.4. So if you want to hold longer term, you have to pay a mighty premium for some steep contango because all the other smart traders know what you do already,

 

Untangling Contango in Commodity Portfolios

https://www.parametricportfolio.com/blog/contango-in-commodity-portfolios

++++++++++++++++++

metmike: Great discussion below related to this, much of it geared towards producers/commercials, not us speculators but its extreme knowledge enrichment for everybody to understand the ng market to use trading. 

Personally, unless I knew that supplies would be cut back longer term or some other force was going to create a fundamentally bullish long term impact. I would not be buying the deferred contracts with such an enormous premium vs the current price.

It seems likely, that before the election, this administration wants to gush out ng supplies to suppress the price of ng as long as possible(while claiming to be against fossil fuels WITH WORDS).

Natural Gas Market: Navigating Contango in the Energy Sector

 Updated: 17 Mar 2024

https://fastercapital.com/content/Natural-Gas-Market--Navigating-Contango-in-the-Energy-Sector.html

By metmike - April 5, 2024, 11:22 a.m.
Like Reply

Natural Gas Futures Flat to Lower Early as Market Mulls Mild Weather, Storage Outlook

 Natural gas futures held steady at the front of the curve in early trading Friday as mild shoulder season weather and a somewhat looser-than-expected close to withdrawal season kept the pressure on prices. At around 8:45 a.m. ET, the May Nymex contract was close to unchanged at $1.773/MMBtu. The front month sold off 6.7 cents… 

By metmike - April 10, 2024, 10:29 p.m.
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With Output Down and LNG Up, Natural Gas Bulls Extend Futures Parade; Spot Prices Slip

 Natural gas futures advanced for a fourth consecutive session on Wednesday, with traders sharpening their collective focus on leaner production and recovering LNG export levels. These bullish factors countered weakening weather-driven demand and stout supplies in storage. At A Glance: Fourth straight prompt month gain Analysts anticipate modest injection Production hovers around 98 Bcf/d The… 

+++++++++++++++++

Temps for tomorrows 9:30am EIA storage report. Slightly bearish?

This was last week: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/102558/#102945

By metmike - April 11, 2024, 12:46 p.m.
Like Reply

Injection of +24 Bcf was more bearish than the market expected. Supplies keep gushing in with storage the highest in history for this date. 

++++++++++++

NOTE THE BLUE LINE ON THE GRAPH BELOW. Record storage for this time of year.

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending April 5, 2024   |  Released: April 11, 2024 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: April 18, 2024 

      Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN  Historical ComparisonsStocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf) Year ago
(04/05/23)5-year average
(2019-23) Region04/05/2403/29/24net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% changeEast362  363  -1  -1   342  5.8  296  22.3  Midwest512  510  2  2   425  20.5  369  38.8  Mountain165  162  3  3   80  106.3  89  85.4  Pacific229  227  2  2   74  209.5  153  49.7  South Central1,014  996  18  18   927  9.4  744  36.3     Salt299  294  5  5   262  14.1  224  33.5     Nonsalt714  701  13  13   664  7.5  519  37.6  Total2,283  2,259  24  24   1,848  23.5  1,650  38.4 
Totals  may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,283 Bcf as of Friday, April 5, 2024, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 24 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 435 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 633 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,650 Bcf. At 2,283 Bcf, total working gas is  above the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2019 through 2023. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.



By metmike - April 12, 2024, 2:11 p.m.
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This was the last run of the European model Ensemble 45 day forecast from yesterday.

HDDs are on the left. CDDs are on the right.

Note the rapid seasonal decrease on the left, intersects with the rapid seasonal increase on the right just after May 9th. 

Also not the deviation from average has a few small spikes down and up early in the forecast then, the prediction tracks closely with the seasonal average. The absolute average numbers are so low at this time of year, so that even big deviations are almost never a big deal.

Almost never but NOT never. 


The impact of  added residential heating/cooling demand on natural gas from extreme temps is greatest, early in the heating/cooling season. 

The market is not threatened by record cold in April, for instance because the long nights in the high latitudes ARE OVER. The source for generating cold is gone. Several days with higher demand in a low demand time frame will not make much difference in storage.

In November, the same cold pattern, should it define the upcoming Winter can greatly erode storage because there are 5 months to do it. 


Same thing with CDDS. Especially this year with expectations for a HOT Summer. A major heat wave in May will likely generate plenty of speculative buying from bulls. Especially at these extremely low prices. At the same time, there is such a massive storage surplus(causing the low prices) that the market knows we won't be running low on ng in storage for a very long time. It will take months of bullish weather and/or throttling back on production, which doesn't seem very likely ahead of the election and desire for low ng prices to help with inflation and high energy bills.......DESPITE Biden pretending he is cutting back on all fossil fuels.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++

1. 1 year chart

2. 30+ years-historically low prices but thats what happens when storage is at a record and just INCREASED more! 


https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas


                

This is also what happens when the US is fossil fuel energy independent(with a president that is pretending that he's cutting back right now but knows what would happen if he really did). These people dang well know that fake green energy schemes will NEVER come close to replacing fossil fuels. It's all a hoax/scam to generate money from CO2. 

There is no climate crisis, just a crisis of corruption in politics, science and the media.

Big Oil SAVES Lives!            

                  Started by metmike - April 11, 2024, 3:15 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/103098/


                Death by GREENING!                       

                40 responses |              

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/


   Energy transition is a hoax            

                           31 responses |                

                Started by metmike - April 15, 2023, 5:50 p.m.          

  https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/94557/

There Is No Energy Transition, Just Energy Addition


By metmike - April 16, 2024, 10:38 a.m.
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Production from Natural Gas Plays to Continue Declining This Spring, EIA Says



metmike: Bad headline! Doesn't look like much of a decline to me.

+++++++++++++

Drilling Productivity Report

Release Date: April 15, 2024Next Release Date: May 13, 2024full report

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/archive/2024/04/

By metmike - April 16, 2024, 10:45 a.m.
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By metmike - April 16, 2024, 10:50 a.m.
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Seasonally mild temps over the northern half of the country that normally sees the greatest HDD demand means another bearish injection on Thursday:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php

By metmike - April 18, 2024, 11:54 a.m.
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Robust injection for early April but long anticipated!

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending April 12, 2024   |  Released: April 18, 2024 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: April 25, 2024 

                                                                                                                                                      

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(04/12/23)
5-year average
(2019-23) 
Region04/12/2404/05/24net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East379  362  17  17   358  5.9  307  23.5  
Midwest528  512  16  16   443  19.2  380  38.9  
Mountain167  165  2  2   83  101.2  90  85.6  
Pacific230  229  1  1   80  187.5  158  45.6  
South Central1,029  1,014  15  15   943  9.1  775  32.8  
   Salt300  299  1  1   265  13.2  238  26.1  
   Nonsalt729  714  15  15   679  7.4  537  35.8  
Total2,333  2,283  50  50   1,909  22.2  1,711  36.4  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,333 Bcf as of Friday, April 12, 2024, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 50 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 424 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 622 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,711 Bcf. At 2,333 Bcf, total working gas is  above the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2019 through 2023. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

+++++++++++

May Natural Gas Futures Jump After Storage Print Lands Near Expectations

 Utilities injected 50 Bcf of natural gas into storage for the week ended April 12, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Thursday. The result, near market expectations and avoiding the previous week’s bearish print, sent futures higher. Ahead of the 10:30 a.m. ET government report, May Nymex futures were trading 4.9 cents higher… 


By metmike - April 19, 2024, 9:59 a.m.
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From yesterday:

Natural Gas Futures Hold Onto Weather-Driven Gains as Storage Print Comes In-Line

https://www.naturalgasintel.com/natural-gas-futures-hold-onto-weather-driven-gains-as-storage-print-comes-in-line/

Natural gas futures gained on Thursday, supported by colder forecasts for next week and a government inventory report that showed supplies did not grow faster than expected.

++++++++++++

I'll disagree that the same forecast of the last week, chilly weather in late April matters to the market  that much but might be an excuse to blame strength on in a time of year when ng almost never goes lower.

Below is the last 0z European Ensemble. Just beyond this 2 week period, CDDs on the right seasonally overtake HDDs on the left. This is actually the period when neither of them matter much. Both are historically low. 

++++++++++++++

The next 45 days from the same model:

CDDs on the right slowly increase, a tad above average. That's actually the more bullish factor longer term. You can see on this graph, the HDDs on the left are just a little blip right now(known for over a week) as they quickly drop off to almost nothing. 

By metmike - April 22, 2024, 11:40 a.m.
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Nothing big going on in the natural gas market. Late April weather is usually not a huge factor.

however, we have some early season warmth on the way!

May Natural Gas Called Slightly Higher as Traders Eye Production, Cool Temps

 Natural gas futures nudged higher early Monday as near-term heating demand and soft springtime production offered support for prices. The May Nymex contract was up 2.1 cents to $1.773/MMBtu at around 8:45 a.m. ET. June was up 2.5 cents to $2.013. Updated estimates Monday showed domestic production remaining steady at sub-100 Bcf/d levels.  Bloomberg data… 

+++++++++++++++++++

"cool temps"?

Seriously?  NO WAY!

Starting April 28th/this Sunday, CDDs will be GREATER than HDDs(and stay that way, maybe until the Fall)!

The purple lines below were from the last 0z run of the European model ensemble. On the left are HDDs(mostly for residential heating) on the right are CDDs(mostly for residential cooling) for the next 2 weeks.

Note the HDDS on the left dropping off a cliff this week and the CDDs on the right jumping to mid-May type levels.