Severe weather risk 3-14-24
8 responses | 0 likes
Started by metmike - March 14, 2024, 3:20 p.m.

Severe Storm Forecast Center:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             


Comments
By metmike - March 14, 2024, 3:26 p.m.
Like Reply

NWS Evansville IN area

https://www.weather.gov/pah/

   https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=291&y=89&site=pah&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=291&map_y=89

    

    

              

Severe Storm risk is highest around 10pm this evening.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=38.0242&lon=-87.5132&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical

        Severe Thunderstorms Possible From Late Afternoon through Late Tonight      

                                                                                                                                                                      

NWS Forecast Office Paducah, KY

        

            Weather.gov > Paducah, KY        

                                            

  •             
  •                
                        Current Hazards                                            
  •             
  •                
                        Current Conditions                                            
  •             
  •                
                        Radar                                            
  •             
  •                  

    

    

    

Last Map Update: Thu, Mar. 14, 2024 at 2:02:02 pm CDT

       

Watches, Warnings & Advisories

 

                                                                               





            Tornado Watch                            




            Hazardous Weather Outlook                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

Weather Story

                    

                Weather MapWeather Map            

                    

                Local Radar Image

By metmike - March 14, 2024, 3:29 p.m.
Like Reply

Tracking the rain/storms/advisories:

       To see rain amounts, go here: https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours

You can scroll down and get almost the entire comprehensive weather picture updated constantly here.

Current Hazards at the link below.

Go to the link below, hit hazards box in the top right hand corner(it will also define all the color codes), if its not already in the hazards mode when you load the link.

 Then you can hit any spot on the map, including where you live and it will go to that NWS with all the comprehensive local weather information for that/your county. 

https://www.weather.gov/                                                                                                                 

                   

                                    


New radar product below          

 https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOm51bGwsImNlbnRlciI6Wy05NC45OCwzNy4wMl0sImxvY2F0aW9uIjpudWxsLCJ6b29tIjo0fSwiYW5pbWF0aW5nIjpmYWxzZSwiYmFzZSI6InN0YW5kYXJkIiwiYXJ0Y2MiOmZhbHNlLCJjb3VudHkiOmZhbHNlLCJjd2EiOmZhbHNlLCJyZmMiOmZhbHNlLCJzdGF0ZSI6ZmFsc2UsIm1lbnUiOnRydWUsInNob3J0RnVzZWRPbmx5IjpmYWxzZSwib3BhY2l0eSI6eyJhbGVydHMiOjAuOCwibG9jYWwiOjAuNiwibG9jYWxTdGF0aW9ucyI6MC44LCJuYXRpb25hbCI6MC42fX0%3D

Go to: "Select View" then "Local Radar"

Hit the purple circle to see that local radar site

+++++++++++++++++++++++

                          This link below provides some great data. After going to the link, hit "Mesoanalysis" then,  the center of any box for the area that you want, then go to observation on the far left, then surface observations to get constantly updated surface observations or hit another of the dozens of choices.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/


   
 Northwest Southwest Central Plains Northern Plains
      https://www.eldoradoweather.com/radar/national-doppler-radar-full-resolution.htmlConus Radar Very High Resolution


Found a great new link/site that shows us how much precip fell(from 1 hr to 72 hours) for different periods to share with you.
https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours
Data Update Cycle: The 1-hr mosaic is updated every 5 min (approx). All other mosaics are now updated hourly, including the 48h and 72h maps.
The site does not allow me to copy the actual images/data here, as we do with all the other links above..........so just go to the link!

                    


By metmike - March 14, 2024, 3:31 p.m.
Like Reply
By metmike - March 14, 2024, 7:24 p.m.
Like Reply


As of 6:15 pm March 14, mostly just high winds and hail. 


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html


Note all the black triangles! That's hail 2" or greater in diameter. This looks like the greatest threat.

You can go to that link and read about each report.

Previous video below,  illustrating what 2 inch hail looks like:

WATCH: Hail 2 inches in diameter or more falls in Llano County

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/hill-country/photos-hail-2-inches-in-diameter-or-more-falls-in-llano-county/








By metmike - March 14, 2024, 9:10 p.m.
Like Reply

Severe weather reports as of 7:40pm Central.

No tornadoes except for the far eastern part of the system. 143 reports of hail/26 of large hail. 52 reports of high winds UNDER 70 mph. 


This will NOT be a life threatening event in the Evansville area if you're inside your home, even if not in your safe place. However an isolates WEAK tornado cannot be ruled out here.

Why do I think this:

Look at the jet stream. It's just not strong enough to cause widespread  violent tornadoes!



Compare the current jet stream above to the jet stream 2 weeks ago, BELOW when we had an elevated risk and that included an outside chance of a strong tornado.

Fortunately, last time there were some dynamics that didn't come together and that powerful jet stream below was unable to ignite a tornado outbreak or any violent tornadoes.

Colder air aloft on top of more warm humid air is making this one a bigger large hail threat......with the high wind threat but so far, under 70 mph. 

Again, that jet stream at the top is limiting strong tornadoes. It's not impossible to get one but that's the LOWEST threat of all of them in this situation. 

By metmike - March 14, 2024, 10:11 p.m.
Like Reply

Radar indicated SEVERE THUNDERSTORM warning, Just after 9pm.

No major widespread reports of anything bad.

  •               

    

    

    



                                                                                                                                                                         

                    

                Local Radar Image

By metmike - March 15, 2024, 12:51 p.m.
Like Reply

We can see that hail/large hail dominated the storm reports yesterday because of the vertical temperature profile in the atmosphere =227/45

A dozen WEAK tornadoes =11

I NEED TO ADD THAT A COUPLE OF THOSE TORNADOES IN OHIO WERE NEAR EF3 STRENGTH AND CAUSED 3 fatalities in a mobile home park. 

 As shown above/yesterday, during the event,  the jet stream was just too weak for a strong tornado outbreak .

There was only 1 wind report greater than 70 mph.

Total storm reports added up to 386 on this FILTERED report. Unfiltered is always much higher. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html

+++++++++

Here are the UNFILTERED reports from the event as on March 18th........MORE THAN DOUBLE!

By metmike - March 18, 2024, 2:17 p.m.
Like Reply

How are we doing so far in 2024 compared to average?

Tornadoes a bit less than the 2005 to 2023 average for early March.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2024_United_States_tornado_LSR_count.png

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/summary/


++++++++++++++++++

HAIL: Last week was most of it!


Wind: January event was the biggest contributor:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/summary/


Total severe weather reports for 2024 so far: