Excessive Rainfall threat. East Coast today but main threat has shifted southwest to a place thats normally dry!

Current Day 1 Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 Forecast

Day 3 forecast below

Severe Storm Risk.  Hit the map for full screen.  Not very high-weak jet stream. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
Current Day 2 Outlook
Current Day 3 Outlook
Current Day 4-8 Outlook

High Temperatures today and Saturday.

Still Great in the Great Lakes and surrounding areas.

Hot along all the Coasts.

Record smashing heat along the West Coast up to Canada.....has started shifting to N.Rockies/N. Plains!!

Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!  Humid over the southern parts of the country.

A tad humid Ohio Valley.

Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature. Feeling sultry in the south. NIce N.PLains/Upper Midwest.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8Ow1nlafOg

Highs days 3-7.

Heat moves around.

How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?  We are now 3 weeks past the climatological time of year when temperatures are the hottest.

Above average West/Rockies to N.Plains.  A bit below S.Plains from clouds/rain.

High temperature departures:

Low Temperature Departures:

Weather system from East Coast back to S.Plains(where it will be more active).  

https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Here is the latest radar image:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Satellite picture. 

Rains the past 24 hours.    Deep South. 

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

Missouri  to S.Plains still in bad shape....but they got some nice rains. TX/OK to get much more.....then MO next week. Big drought is shrinking!

Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday. Drought will be shrinking.

            http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx    

Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.

Today:  Record smashing heat Pacific Northwest spreading to N.Rockies/N.Plains!  

In 5+ days:

Heat is moving around. Still hottest West......spews east briefly.

In 10+ days   Hot West again!!!! Heat moving around...... Some heat spills east to the Northeast.

Day 15  Hottest West to N.Plains.............How much moves east?

Latest 0z run of the Canadian model ensembles. Tiny majority have some troughing dipping down into the Upper Midwest to Northeast. Much uncertainty.....especially on where the heat ridge(which will be there) will be located.

The top map is the ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Aug 24, 2018 00 UTC

Below are some of the 0z GFS individual ensembles at the end of 2 weeks. Alot of disagreement but they are converging and are also similar to the Canadian ensembles..........weak upper level troughing Upper Midwest to Northeast......heat ridge probably southwest of there.  

The 6Z ensemble average shows this.

Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gefs-mean-sprd/06/gefs-mean-sprd_namer_360_500_vort_ht.gif

The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4.

Week 3 carries thru with the week 2 changes taking place. Heat ridge continues to build back west.........COOL Plains/Midwest to East Coast.

Precip below:

12z guidance is mixed.

Latest operational GFS is much cooler in week 2(vs the previous warmer ones overnight) and about to change/amplify  the pattern to a much cooler one late in week 2.

gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht	gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht
gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick	gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht

Total 2 week rains from this last GFS. Heavy rains in the Southern and Eastern Cornbelt.

Not  so much in the Northwest parts. None in the Dakota's 

Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_372_precip_ptot.gif

Last Canadian 12z ensembles are actually a tad warmer.

Many of the individual runs are completely out of phase.......and the opposite of the last GFS operational model.

Some have a heat ridge where others have a deep upper level trough being carved out and the complete opposite feature down/upstream.

372h GZ 500 forecast valid on Aug 26, 2018 00UTC

GFS ensembles are actually a bit warmer late week 2..........similar to the Canadian models ensembles for that how skill time frame.

Forecast Hour:  384
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gefs-mean-sprd/12/gefs-mean-sprd_namer_384_500_vort_ht.gif

Last 12z Operational European model is on a different planet vs it's previous solution:

Previous, 0z solution below.........massive heat ridge in the center of the country:

Last, 12z run for the exact same time!

The maps below are from the NWS extended outlooks.  

Not much changed from yesterday.  Above temps and below rains for the northwest 1/3 to 1/2 of the Cornbelt.

Average temps and above average rains for the southeast 1/2 of the Cornbelt.

A shift northwestward of the rains would add bearish ammo to todays shockingly bearish USDA numbers.  A shift south/eastward of the rains(increasing the dry areas of the Cornbelt) would provide bullish ammo to support the case that USDA production is too high.

Also above average temps along the East coast.

6-10 day Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

8-14 day Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

Extreme weather days 3-7:

Heavy rains early next week moving up northeastward from TX into the Southern, then Eastern Cornbelt..........MO/IL/IN........possibly clipping southeast IA. This is the most bearish part of the current weather forecast right now.

Take those rains out and the forecast turns more bullish, shift them farther northwest and it becomes more bearish.

Week 3-4 forecast from NWS that comes out every Friday Afternoon.

Near normal temps(CFS is pretty cool week 3)  and below rains in the Great Lakes. Take a forecast this far out with a grain of salt.

Temperature Probability	Precipitation Probability (Experimental)  Wee