Previous thread:
Grains 4-10-24
Started by metmike - April 10, 2024, 11:07 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/103084/
++++++++++++
RELATED:
Wheat
Started by metmike - April 22, 2024, 9 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/103420/
The U.S. EPA will temporarily expand sales of higher-ethanol blends of gasoline (E15) this summer, seen as a win for U.S. ag as it raises ethanol (thus corn) demand. Higher ethanol blends can increase smog in hot weather, but the difference between E15 and E10 is minimal.
Money managers staged a RECORD weekly selloff in CBOT #soyoil futures & options in the week ended April 16 as oilshare continued tumbling off six-month highs. Bean oil futures were down more than 5% in the week, and funds' net selling totaled nearly 50k contracts.
This month's oilshare unwind has had specs cutting bearish bets in CBOT #soymeal fut&opt over the last two weeks. Managed money net short on April 16 of 10.5k contracts (vs 43k on April 2) is a three-month low but still relatively bearish for the date.
++++++++++++++++++++
Money managers were net sellers of CBOT #soybeans in the week ended April 16, and they remain the most bearish for the time of year (close to all-time). Pattern seems to be recently tracking 2019 (blue line).
U.S. #corn export inspections hit a marketing-year high last week of 1.62 million tonnes (64 mbu), landing above all trade estimates. Mexico was the top destination though there were a couple cargoes to China. These are the weekly volumes you need to see this time of year.
Full crop progress report:
tjc,
Oats planting and emergence is FASTER than average!
+++++++++++++++++
U.S. winter #wheat conditions plunge 5 percentage points to 50% good/excellent (analyst range was 52-55). #Cotton planting is moving at an average pace but #corn, #soybeans and spring #wheat are all a bit ahead of average.
It’s quite incredible that even with subsidizing and supporting Ukraine with BILLIONS of US Taxpayers money, UKRAINIAN farmers still lose money This is why Europeans farmers are pissed off. Imagine having to compete with ultra subsidized grain farmers next door
metmike: Ukraine is a corrupt sinkhole stealing incredible amounts of US tax payer money to benefit the US military-industrial-political-media complex and NATO.
April 23: CBOT July #wheat futures extend gains on US crop health decline and general crop concerns in the N Hem. July wheat topped the 100-day avg for the first time since Jan and is up 8+% in the last 3 sessions, biggest rally since July. First $6+/bu since early Feb, too.
Busy chart on purpose - drives the point home. Funds need to cover some shorts for any bullish hopes. Will see on Fri how many were covered through 4/23. July CBOT #soymeal gained 2.8% in week ended 4/23 and #soyoil was +0.9%. Both had bigger 5-day rises earlier this month.
COT could be interesting on Friday. Net buying prominent in last 3 sessions (estimates tend to lowball bigger moves). In week ended April 23, CBOT July contracts:#Corn +2.2% (best 5-day stretch for most-active in 6 wks)#Soybeans +1.9% (5+ wk best)#Wheat +6.7% (best since Dec)
U.S. #ethanol production has declined in recent weeks after a stronger showing late last month. In the past 3 weeks, ethanol output has declined 11.1%, ethanol stocks fell 2.6% and implied U.S. gasoline demand is down 8.8%.
Rain the next 384 hours(16 days) on the last 6z GEFS.
One can guess that this might be bearish for beans with any planting delays and possibly bullish for corn but its still early and planting is off to a good start and its hard to be too bullish on very heavy rains in an area with drought..........even during the planting season!
Very heavy rains coming up in the SouthCentral US!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83848
In places that have drought:
U.S. export inspections last week came in within expectations. 1 cargo each of #wheat and #sorghum were destined for #China, but no #corn or #soybeans. No big adjustments to the previous week's numbers, either.
This past week would be soybeans' first below-average volume since January - not too shabby. For corn this would be a 7-week low, let's see if there are any revisions next week. Wheat shipments have been respectable for 2+ months.
7 day rain totals:
April was great for #Ukraine's grain exports. As of Mon, YTD (since July 1) exports are down 1.7% on the year vs an 8.2% deficit four weeks ago. Exports in last 4 wks were approx 3.7 mmt of #corn & 1.8 mmt of #wheat. That's very strong for April relative to past yrs (pre war).
++++++++++++++++
Oilseed workers at one of #Argentina's largest ports plan to begin striking from Monday to protest against the government's proposed tax and labor reforms. Argentina is a key supplier of #soymeal and #soyoil, though this could put those exports in jeopardy.
#Russia's state weather forecaster on Saturday said it sees threat of drought persisting in May for eastern portions of the Southern District, Russia's top #wheat growing region. The March-April period has been among the driest ever for the district.
U.S. #corn was 27% planted as of Sunday, exactly as the trade expected and above the recent average. Spring #wheat planting pace is the fastest since 2021, and progress last week was much quicker than analysts thought. Winter wheat conditions down 1 pt as predicted.
See the entire report here:
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/8336h188j
tjc,
Oats have seen FASTER than average planting in every state, except for PA.
U.S. spring #wheat is sought after for its high protein content and great milling/baking qualities. Foreign buyers have already booked a larger-than-normal volume of U.S. hard red spring wheat for 2024/25 delivery:
U.S. #wheat export sales for 2024/25 (2.15 mmt as of April 18) are on an efficient pace for the date. Big difference from the lousy year-ago volumes. 35% of that is hard red spring (5yr avg share for the date is 24%) and 16% is hard red winter (5yr avg of 30%).
Show more
After two years of dreadfully slow U.S. spring #wheat planting, last week's progress was well above average, lifting planting to 34% complete by April 28 from 15% a week earlier. Top grower North Dakota was 20% done (vs 11% avg and 31% in 2021).
More on Tuesday's impending announcement:
Biden team sets out ethanol's path to aviation fuel subsidies - Reuters News
Here's the updated article (no link was available when I first posted). Includes details: The SAF subsidies amount to $1.25 per gallon for fuels that hit the 50% emissions reduction threshold, and up to $1.75 per gallon for those that exceed it.https://reuters.com/sustainability/biden-team-sets-out-ethanols-path-aviation-fuel-subsidies-2024-04-30/#:~:text=April%2030%20(Reuters)%20-%20The,use%20climate-friendly%20growing%20techniques
OUCH!
@kannbwx
April 30: CBOT #soyoil crashing for a second session, reaching the most-active contract's lowest price since January 2021. Crude oil and other global vegoils sank on Tuesday, and anticipation is building for the US biofuels announcement later today.
Less than 24 hours later and on its way to break the chart
Rains the last week that caused runoff into rivers that fed into the M River:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
> Scraped 20 years worth of PDF’s and split them out into images in python > Stitched them into one massive GIF > Converted GIF into video using FFmpeg Thank you
US Drought History 2000 - 2022
https://twitter.com/i/status/1595631905415856128
Total rains the next 384 hours from the last 0z GEFS.
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d8_14_contours.png
All the weather: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
U.S. export sales last week were modest, and virtually no new-crop #corn or #soybeans were sold. Net old-crop corn+soy sales, while not that strong, were actually close to average for the week. Egypt was the top bean buyer, Japan & Mexico in corn.
U.S. #soymeal exports in March hit an all-time monthly record of 1.485 million tonnes, besting the prior high of 1.449M set in Jan. 2013. Halfway through 23/24, total exports sit at 8.1 mmt, up 22% from the 5yr avg. USDA has full-year 23/24 exports +14% on the 5yr avg.
Beans exploded higher today!
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/soybeans
1. 1 week
2. 1 year
3. 10 years
May 2: CBOT July #corn hit a 3-month high, jumping 2% to settle at $4.59-3/4 per bushel. That is down from $5.80 on this date a year ago but up 9% from the Feb low. In focus: smaller Argy corn crop, harvest-disrupting rains in southern Brazil, slower US field work this week
CF Industries says the brisk pace at which U.S. agricultural companies have imported Russian fertilizer has unwittingly helped fund #Russia's war efforts. The U.S. does not have direct sanctions on Russian fertilizer.
+++++++++++++
Cold weather this week could help contain some of the insects, which thrive in warmer weather:
#Argentina's Buenos Aires exchange cut its #corn crop estimate to 46.5 mmt from 49.5 mmt previously (initial forecast was 56.5 mmt).
