Political polls, betting odds, etc
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Started by WxFollower - Sept. 9, 2024, 10:32 p.m.

For the first one since July 31, Trump has pulled to about even with Harris on Predict-It:

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By metmike - Sept. 10, 2024, 2:54 p.m.
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Thanks much, Larry!

Im finding it increasingly difficult to imagine Trump winning because he’s becoming increasingly delusional and mentally ill.

Donald Trump is by far, Donald trumps worst enemy.

the debate will likely reveal even more of that tonight.

ironically, the only person that Trump could beat was Biden…..because Biden was so bad and it’s likely the only person Harris can beat is Trump…..because Trump is so bad.

how is it that each party is running the worst people from their party for president?

its not like we don’t have smarter, more qualified and less divisive people out there.

More honest???

we are discussing US politicians!

Honesty is not a  typical character trait of people in that profession.
The last honest President, for instance was Jimmy Carter!


By metmike - Sept. 12, 2024, 10:40 a.m.
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Harris maintains her 56c to 47c higher number compared to Trump since the debate.

By metmike - Sept. 14, 2024, 8:46 p.m.
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Latest from this site:

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election


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Previous analysis:

                Re: Re:  Unmuted microphones Trump vs Harris            

                           By metmike - Sept. 12, 2024, 4:56 p.m.           

            

Here's the last 90 days.

1. We can see what happened to Biden after the  June 27th  debate debacle. MUCH Higher volume betting after that.

2.  Note the Harris surge after she was anointed by the Ds, following the Biden resignation on July 21st.  EXTREMELY high volume betting immediately following that until the betting numbers reflected what the market felt was more reasonable.

3. The Harris enthusiasm peaked during the DNC convention in mid-August with a slight, very temporary bump up in betting volume......which had gradually been decreasing since the monster spike higher in late July.

4. Trump was slowly eroding Harris's higher numbers since the DNC convention. Almost pulling even before this last debate. 

5. Debate #2, September 10, 2024.  Harris gets a big lift of at least several cents, Trump drops by around the same amount. Another modest jump higher in betting volume but nothing close to the June/July spikes up. 

6. We should note that the election is coming up in less than 2 months. Things happening NOW count MUCH more than things that happened months ago. Based on everything, I would guess there's a 95% chance for Harris to win!

7. What can Trump do to change this outcome? It's likely too late. He squandered every opportunity, including the assassination attempt that he twisted and used to suggest God saved him to justify all the galactically offensive personality flaws turning off the non MAGA people. Donald Trumps mouth is his own worst enemy. Donald Trump's mouth was more responsible for his debate loss than other factors (biased moderators) that favored Harris. 


https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election




https://days.to/until/election-day-in-us