The sheer volume of the $38.5 trillion debt is only half of the story; the real pressure comes from the cost of carrying it. Throughout 2025 and into early 2026, the "higher for longer" interest rate environment has fundamentally shifted the math of the American economy.
Economists warn that these rising interest costs act as a massive "tax" on future growth. When the government spends nearly $300 billion in a single quarter just to pay interest, that capital is effectively removed from the productive economy. It cannot be used for infrastructure, scientific research, or education. This phenomenon is known as "crowding out," where government borrowing needs suck the oxygen out of the private investment market
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/23/us/politics/doge-musk-trump-analysis.html
https://fortune.com/2026/01/26/trump-big-beautiful-bill-national-debt-crisis/
$73,649.33 per second for the past year.
https://www.pgpf.org/programs-and-projects/fiscal-policy/monthly-interest-tracker-national-debt/
The rapid accumulation of federal debt, in addition to higher interest rates on that debt (relative to longer-term rates that existed just a few years ago), has pushed up the federal government’s cost of borrowing. Through the third month of FY26, interest payments on the national debt have been 11.9 percent higher compared to previous years.
Cumulative Federal Interest Costs (Billions of $)
Published
Jul 03, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT
https://www.newsweek.com/from-71-million-to-39-trillion-u-s-national-debts-250-year-climb-12084747
++++++++++++++++++++
My personal view previously was that this can be sustained still for some time...........indefinitely but at some point, like with EVERY exponential/parabolic move it MUST come to an end.
At the end, there is always a collapse lower in the metrics that define it which causes extreme pain for people that depended on the exponential move continuing.
We are condemning a future generation to this inevitable outcome.
Dialing in the events of 2025/26 under Donald Trump's counterproductive leadership, with the vast majority of countries in the world losing confidence in the United States, entirely because of Donald Trump. Their objectives to distance themselves from the United States as much as possible are to minimize exposure to Donald Trump.
That being the case, the previous elevated risk of a disaster coming "some day" have been elevated to "while Donald Trump is president".
That risk is going higher fast, just like the slopes on the graphs below:
This is stunning and easily unprecedented AND GLOBAL and extremely damaging.
Nonmilitary discretionary spending is a tiny part of the budget. DOGE featured a bunch of clowns who didn't understand that, making a mess of things, doing maximum damage for minimal results. And now, a ruling party that doesn't care at all, as long as they get theirs.
The CBO report through May is at https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-06/61981-MBR.pdf
Things to note on our way to a $2 trillion deficit for FY 2026 : Military spending so far doesn't include the bills for the Iran war and restocking.
Medicare spending is still growing. The figures through May should be $740 billion, not $674, as they've been leaving bills unpaid. (Shown as a timing shift. Hospitals call it something else)
Net customs revenues dropped to 0 once refunds started getting paid.