By
David UbertiET
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US layoffs jump 205% in January, hitting 17-year high driven by UPS, Amazon
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/technology/us-layoffs-jump-205-in-january-hitting-17-year-high/articleshow/127935938.cms?from=mdr
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January worst month for job cuts since 2009: Report
https://thehill.com/business/5724073-employers-cut-jobs-restructuring/
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https://www.businessinsider.com/january-layoffs-cuts-highest-level-since-2009-challenger-2026-2
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https://www.npr.org/2026/01/09/nx-s1-5670392/jobs-employment-labor-market-economy-tariffs
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Jobs this past year grew at a rate 70 percent slower than the year before Trump took office.
https://truthout.org/articles/2025-was-the-worst-non-recession-year-for-jobs-growth-since-2003/
Donald Trump's rating of his economy:
https://thehill.com/homenews/5640090-donald-trump-economy-inflation/
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Donald Trump created this video himself last year to demonstrate how he feels about and in many cases impacts Americans, institutions, businesses and most realms that he considers to be beneath his omnipotence( almost everybody).
We're witnesses that exactly now with his economy.
Trump's SHOCKING AI VIDEO shows him DUMPING SHIT on 'NO KINGS' protesters
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugrn6DNAYEU
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Previous related threads:
Fed's Dual Mandate
Started by joj - Dec. 18, 2025, 9:29 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/116630/
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More delusional tariffs!
53 responses |
Started by metmike - Sept. 14, 2025, 5:51 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/114673/
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U.S. national debt
Started by metmike - Jan. 30, 2026, 11:56 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/117647/
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Trump's Influence on Markets/Economy
32 responses |
Started by joj - Dec. 7, 2025, 8:48 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/116411/
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Disappointing jobs report today (9/5/25)
44 responses |
Started by WxFollower - Sept. 5, 2025, 11:08 a.m.
By
David UbertiET
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Five charts show the impact on the economy after a year of sweeping trade changes by the Trump administration.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/02/business/trump-tariffs-one-year-later.html
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https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/06/february-2026-jobs-report.html
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This will obviously cause inflation pressure:
Market opens tonight, 3-1-2026/crude
By metmike - March 6, 2026, 9:30 a.m.
Economic growth at the end of 2025 was revised downward and consumer prices rose at the start of 2026.
Economic growth was slower at the end of 2025 than data first showed and inflationary pressures persisted at the start of this year, a troubling snapshot of an economy on unsteady footing before war with Iran upended oil and financial markets.
Consumer prices increased moderately in January, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge showed on Friday. Economists worry prices will march even higher in the coming weeks. And gross domestic product, the benchmark measure of economic growth, which is adjusted for inflation, was revised down to a 0.7 percent annual pace for the last three months of the year.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, notched a 0.3 percent monthly increase in the first month of 2026. Compared with the same time last year, prices were up 2.8 percent. The “core” inflation reading, which strips out more volatile food and energy prices, came in at 0.4 percent on a monthly basis, and 3.1 percent on an annual basis. That is a full percentage point above the Fed’s 2 percent target.
“It basically shows that inflation firmed up to start the year,” Omair Sharif, founder of the research firm Inflation Insights, said of the data. “All the key measures are moving in the wrong direction.”
A snapshot taken just before the shock to oil prices from the war with Iran, the price data offer a worrisome setup for inflation going forward.
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https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/13/economy/us-consumer-sentiment-gdp
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It doesn't take a rocket scientist (or atmospheric scientist) to see the ruinous economic path that Donald Trump is taking our country down based on the authentic facts/empirical economic data and evidence. The wait and see period has looooooong passed. The verdict is in and this is all self/country inflicted damage by Donald Trump.
This cut in federal employment probably is a big reason why employment numbers are down. A 10.8% cut in staffing should (if they don't spend it somewhere else) cut government spending.
Over 317,000 federal employees left the U.S. government in 2025 due to workforce reductions and agency downsizing, with a significant number of these departures attributed to buyouts and voluntary separations, as reported by USA Today and the Office of Personnel Management (OPM). While thousands were officially laid off, the massive reduction is part of a 10.8% net decrease in the federal workforce in 2025, according to Federal News Network.
Key points regarding the 2025 federal workforce cuts include:
Excellent topic/report cutworm!
I'll try to look more deeply into these stats tomorrow.
For sure there was a massive loss of government jobs as stated and one would think that would reduce the payroll budget. There's a graph at the bottom of this page that shows that with the monthly drops last year.
ADP Data: The ADP National Employment Report noted 398,000 private sector jobs were added in 2025, a steep decline from 771,000 in 2024.
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https://www.crfb.org/press-releases/treasury-confirms-spending-142-billion-2025
The Treasury Department just confirmed that spending continues to rise. The federal government has already spent $3.6 trillion from January to June of 2025 – up $142 billion from this same period last year.
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The purge of government jobs, I thought was over many months ago, however it might still be going on based on the latest data???
Donald Trump has been insisting the his tariffs will be bringing back tons of manufacturing jobs.
The exact opposite has been happening:
Elise Gould@elisegould.bsky.social
Manufacturing jobs fell again, down 12,000 between January and February 2026. Since January 2025, the manufacturing sector has lost 100,000 jobs. I repeat: The manufacturing sector lost 100k jobs since Trump took office. #EconSky #NumbersDay
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Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social
Job losses in Feb were most acute in health care, due to striking workers who have since gone back to work. Notable losses as well in leisure and hospitality and educational services. Job were added in financial activities and social assistance. On net, 92k job losses for Feb.
Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social
Attacks on the federal workforce continue. Federal employment has shrunk an alarming 327,000 jobs since January 2025. The vital services federal employees provide cannot be done without these essential workers. The cost of these losses are only beginning to be felt.#EconSky #NumbersDay
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3-12-26 SPR oil/gas prices
12 responses |
Started by metmike - March 12, 2026, 11:26 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/118598/
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Re: : Market opens tonight, 3-1-2026/crude
By metmike - March 18, 2026, 10:49 a.m.
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Oil market researcher Rory Johnston on what happens if the war does not end
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The US doesn't even have a person in Iran that they can negotiate deals with now!!!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/118250/
Psychopaths
Started by metmike - March 16, 2026, 10:50 p.m.
The Moody's chief economist previously told Business Insider that he saw the threat of economic recession for the US as increasingly likely. Now, he believes that the threat is rising, largely due to the convergence of two key economic forces.
A strong upward move in oil prices since the Iran war began has led other economists to voice concerns about the economy recently, and Zandi highlighted the weakening US labor market as a bearish force that could be exacerbated by the latest energy volatility.
Acting deputy administrator fears 'significant pain' for passengers if worker callouts continue to climb
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_oil_crisis
The 1979 oil crisis, sometimes referred to as the second oil crisis (in reference to the 1973 oil crisis), refers to the drop in oil production in the aftermath of the Iranian Revolution that led to an energy crisis in 1979. Although the global oil supply only decreased by approximately four percent,[2] the oil markets' reaction raised the price of crude oil drastically over the next 12 months, more than doubling it to $39.50 per barrel ($248/m3), equivalent to $175 per barrel ($1,101/m3) in 2025. The sudden increase in price was connected with fuel shortages similar to the 1973 oil crisis.[3]
In 1980, following the onset of the Iran–Iraq War, oil production in Iran fell drastically. Iraq's oil production also dropped significantly, triggering economic recessions worldwide. Oil prices did not return to pre-crisis levels until the mid-1980s
The war has ratcheted up prices for gasoline, airfares and other expenses.
https://abcnews.com/Business/inflation-report-show-latest-prices-fuel-costs-surge/story?id=132842452
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DUGH!
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/
The excessive inflation in 2022/23 was caused by the over reaction of the Fed to COVID in 2020/21 by printing massive amounts of money and gifting it to Americans which OVER stimulated the economy and they took MUCH too long to raise interest rates to slow it down.
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We keep hearing that as soon as the war ends, we will just go back to the way it was before then.
NO, NO, NO!
If the war ended tomorrow, it would take until well into 2027 to recover all the lost supply from the closed Strait of Hormuz.
And there is no end in sight as Donald Trump's "brief incursion" he said would last for several weeks is now running into months. Energy inflation is just part of it.
While speaking with reporters on Tuesday outside of the White House, Trump answered a reporter's question about the ballroom, saying he's doubled the size of the ballroom and that it's "on budget under budget and ahead of schedule."
"I doubled the size of it, you dumb person," Trump said to the reporter. "Double the size. You are not a smart person."
Another female reporter asked Trump about the rise of inflation and if his policies are working.
"They’re working incredibly," Trump said. "If you go back to just before the war, for the last three months, inflation was a 1.7%. Now, we had a choice. Let these lunatics have a nuclear weapon — if you want to do that, then you’re a stupid person. And you happen to be, and I know you very well. Anybody that wants them to have a nuclear weapon is a stupid person."
These two instances are just the latest in Trump's ongoing war with female reporters. In the past, he has told a female reporter to "quiet, piggy," called another reporter "ugly" and a "third-rate reporter," called others a "disgrace," "horrible," "stupid and nasty," and more.
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While answering these questions about the economy, the war and costs of the Ballroom, Donald Trump blatantly lied about all of it. On top of the blatant lies, he resorted to childish, offensive, insulting name calling of reporters because he didn't like their questions.
This is a person with an already diseased brain and the progressive dementia is resulting in him losing self control more and more. He's losing more and more ability to make smart decisions with a loss of coherent thoughts and critical thinking,. He's already unqualified to be president and getting worse all the time.
Iran nuclear weapons false narrative(s)
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/119788/
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This sounds like an NTR post but unfortunately, it's an analysis of the answers from Donald Trump and his thinking on trading related topics (the economy, huge expenses to tax payers for his mistakes-the war and ballroom).
Americans financial situation is about as trade related as it gets.
Let's find out what Donald Trump had to say about that today:
https://newrepublic.com/post/210325/trump-doesnt-care-even-little-bit-americans-finances-iran-war
President Trump could not care less about your financial struggles.
The man who pledged to fight for unseen Americans by lowering prices and ending endless wars isn’t doing either, and remained adamant that he’s still on the right path forward when asked about it on Tuesday.
“When you’re negotiating with Iran, Mr. President, to what extent are Americans’ financial situations motivating you to make a deal?” a reporter asked Trump before he left for China on Tuesday, alluding to the skyrocketing inflation caused by the fallout from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and Lebanon.
“Not even a little bit,” Trump said, shockingly out of touch even for him. “The only thing that matters when I’m talking about Iran is they can’t have a nuclear weapon. I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation, I don’t think about anybody. I think about one thing: We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That’s all. That’s the only thing that motivates me.”
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Just to repeat, his claim of an imminent threat from Iran's nuclear weapons to justify this war is made up!!! See the previous link.
This is the REAL reason. Now the entire world is suffering, especially the reputation of the United States, in addition to us paying 50 billion for the military expenses, in addition to the much higher gas prices and inflation.
How Netanyahu used Donald Trump for his war
Started by metmike - April 10, 2026, 4:10 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/119441/
Again, this is a comprehensive analysis, using authentic facts and truth to debunk Donald Trump's blatant lies about something that is crushing every global economy with the worst energy crisis in history because Donald Trump is unqualified to make decisions as our president.
Almost nothing that he says is the truth.
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8am Wednesday:
Donald Trump has committed blatant treason!!!!
Started by metmike - May 13, 2026, 8:16 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/120200/
The services index accelerated 1.2%, the biggest gain since March 2022. Two-thirds of the move was attributed to a 2.7% gain in trade services, a sign that tariff costs could be starting to have a larger impact on prices.
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This is no surprise!
Supreme Court rules against Trump's illegal tariffs
37 responses |
Started by metmike - Feb. 20, 2026, 10:19 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/118035/
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More delusional tariffs!
54 responses |
Started by metmike - Sept. 14, 2025, 5:51 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/114673/
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50% tariffs on EU starting June 1
61 responses |
Started by metmike - May 23, 2025, 8:13 a
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/112084/
https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-quietly-altered-march-inflation-123300030.html
U.S. economic growth in the first quarter was significantly slower than initially estimated, while consumer inflation remained elevated in April, official data showed Thursday.
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Tariffs, unjustified war in Iran..........all self inflicted disasters that never made any sense other than the fact that we have a president with a diseased brain who is obsessed with conquest and making himself an historical, global legend.
There are 1,000+ other pieces of evidence that tell us this is so.
The world is getting more uptight about lending money to President Donald Trump’s government
When Kent Smetters, faculty director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model, broke down the math tied to rising 30-year Treasury yields, he estimated that 60% of the increase had come from the expectation that America will continue its outsized borrowing and the other 40% was tied to the inflation driven by the Iran war and Trump’s tariffs.
Glenn Hubbard, a former chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers during the George W. Bush administration, worries that the U.S. may no longer have the same borrowing capacity as before to effectively combat an economic crisis, such as the 2008 crash or the coronavirus pandemic.
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In other words, 100% of it tied to Donald Trump's ruinous policies. Donald Trump wants lower interest rates but everything he does causes HIGHER interest rates.
Gap higher after Donald Trump's completely unprovoked, unjustified and illegal attack against Iran which has caused the worst global energy crisis in history that has no end in sight because his diseased brain doesn't have the negotiating ability or objective, critical thinking to figure it out and he's appointed nothing but Trump adulators that keep their jobs by doing what he says. When they come up with good ideas that contradict Donald Trump.........they get replaced.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield
1. 10 year bond-1 year. Gap higher at the start of the Iran War.
2. 10 year graph: COVID lows in 2020. The Fed OVER stimulated the economy by printing trillions because of COVID and this caused major inflation and MUCH higher interest rates. They peaked in 2024 as interest rates continued to drop. However, inflation has picked up again because of Donald Trump's illegal tariffs and unjustified war. The most recent chart formation is a symmetrical triangle that appears to be on the verge of an upside breakout or it could just be testing the downtrend line. The adverse impacts to our economy, is they cause a recession would help to keep the interest rates from getting too high. However, the new Fed chairman appointed by Donald Trump is a wild card. If he is another Donald Trump minion that follows Trumps wishes, he could do some really dumb things like print more money or do interest rates cuts that INCREASE inflation and makes things worse. We need to give him the benefit of the doubt and hope the Fed continues to maintain independence.
Inflation rose for a third consecutive month, in line with expectations.
https://abcnews.com/Business/inflation-hits-highest-level-2023-iran-war-pushes/story?id=133741082
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Even if Donald Trump is correct on prices dropping lower after the war ends, these 5 things are indisputable.
1. It will take well into 2027, at least to recharge the supplies lost from the Iran War because of Donald Trump's self inflicted, unjustified war on Iran. While that is taking place, prices WILL remain elevated. For instance, replenishing the SPR's will require the additional demand/buying during that time. That's in addition to the months of restoring the shipping aspect.
2. This war is now in it's 4th month and all the extra money that American's have spent on gasoline and other products is NEVER coming back.
3. This is the worst global energy crisis in history!!!! This was all done because Bibi Netanyahu convinced Donald Trump that the war would be an easy victory, without consequences that would create a regime change and make Donald Trump a legend for his conquests in the Middle East. Donald Trump, not only betrayed Iran that had already AGREED TO HIS TERMS of reducing their enriched uraniums, he COMMITTED TREASON AGAINST THE USA!
Donald Trump has committed blatant treason!!!!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/120200/
4. How many allies joined Donald Trump and Israel with their unprovoked, unjustified breaking of International Laws attack on Iran? 0
Allied Countries helping Trump
Started by metmike - March 18, 2026, 7:57 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/118814/
5. Donald Trump has told us more than 3 dozen times that the war is close to being over.
How many times has Trump claimed an Iran deal is around the corner?
https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/09/politics/times-trump-iran-deal-close
Including the period before the ceasefire, he’s done it at least 38 times. That’s the number of times he’s said directly — in social media posts, public appearances and phone calls with the media — that a deal was nigh or claimed Iran was desperate to cut one.
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Donald trump loves this?
Donald Trump's Diagnosis NAILED!
Started by metmike - April 6, 2026, 9:44 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/119295/
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If you want a detailed compilation of threads that document, analyze and discuss Donald Trump's pathological thinking, go here:
$250 bill with Donald Trump on it!
Started by metmike - May 28, 2026, 4:18 p.m.
Less than a quarter of Americans approve of how the president is managing cost-of-living issues, according to a poll released this week.
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/06/10/inflation-iran-energy-fed-affordability-00957339
Just updated Producer Price Index.
It had already been going up BEFORE Donald Trump's unjustified, unprovoked illegal war in Iran from Donald Trump's ruinous, ILLEGAL tariffs.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/producer-prices-change
These numbers don't lie.
Anybody following the indisputable, economic principles of tariffs, especially between a rich country like the US and other countries, knew this was coming since Trump imposed his ruinous tariffs April 2025.
Anybody with critical thinking in 2026 knew that a war with Iran would also make it MUCH worse.
The numbers above are not independent of Donald Trump or temporary artifacts from his policies as he and his supporters are trying to spin.
They are a direct, exact impact from Donald Trump's unique policies/agenda imposed on the US economy.
Never mind Donald Trump's illegal, unjustified war in Iran. This is the same man who claims his favorite word is tariff.
More delusional tariffs!
54 responses |
Started by metmike - Sept. 14, 2025, 5:51 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/114673/
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https://www.youtube.com/shorts/uOtIFSt8HzE
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https://www.npr.org/2025/04/09/nx-s1-5355661/tariffs-history-meaning
Tariffs are President Trump's favorite word. That's not an exaggeration.
"I always say 'tariffs' is the most beautiful word to me in the dictionary," he said at a rally just hours after his inauguration in January. "Because tariffs are going to make us rich as hell. It's going to bring our country's businesses back that left us."
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Donald Trump can repeat his lie that other countries pay his tariffs a zillion times but it won't change to stone cold fact that it's US companies and US consumers that pay the tariffs and tariffs like his ALWAYS cause inflation because they ALWAYS increase the cost of goods for US companies.
Those US companies have 2 choices.
1. Make less money/lose money from Donald Trump's tariffs
2. Pass their increased costs for goods from Donald Trump's tariffs on to consumers
3. There is no #3 in the real world. The US government collecting the tariff as a tax on us does not change who pays for tariffs and why.
4. His tariffs policy and delusional explanations/justifications by itself prove that Donald Trump is not playing with a full deck.
