Or, might we be in for a longer war. Iran's strategy seems to be to inflict economic damage and chaos. Iran doesn't have to win, they just have to not lose. Short of a full scale invasion of a country with 93 million I think the regime survives. 20% chance of a military coup. (just an opinion)
Some people think Trump will back down because he in mindful of gas prices and the Stock market. I don't see and exit ramp for Trump. Does he make a deal with the regime and claim victory while leaving the regime in power? That's a whopper of a lie even for Trump.
And what would Israel do if Trump backs down?
the son of the supreme leader was chosen by somebody????? who knows who???? this weekend.....that right there could be the start of the end
When in the 5 years of Trump as president have you seen him back down. No, lines in the sand, crossings here.
Not saying this is going to last years. All he needs to do is get the straight open and ships moving and oil will crash.
Blink isn't really a relevant word. It's a war, not a staring contest.
If you can explain what Trump's objective is, you can make a meaningful guess whether he'll try to end the war without achieving it, or have a serious chance at success.
I haven't seen any explanation or justification, so I can't guess.
The oil market seems to have realized that what most traders thought would just be a bit of bombing followed by some face saving is turning into a real war.
Excellent comments. Great thread, joj!
This is an extraordinarily time in all of our lives, especially so for people like us that constantly follow and actually trade these markets.
If you can read Donald Trump's mind right now, you can make a ton of money.
The markets are trading news about the war and Donald Trump as he loves it, as the most powerful man in the world is in the drivers seat calling all the market disrupting and chaos causing shots.
Patrick said it best. Donald Trump hasn't communicated exactly what this is about and what his plan really is so its hard for the rest of the world to GUESS what might be coming next.
It's seems unlikely that Iran is going to unconditionally surrender and absurdly let Donald Trump pick their new leader(which shows how delusional he is).
He also demanded that Hamas do the same thing. Throw down their weapons and give up and predicted they would because Hamas knows he means business and what he can do to them. The point is, none of us can predict Donald Trump, except that he will do things to make Donald Trump look good.
The first week of any war is often the easiest to sell to war supporters.
Then, as the horrible realities and damage get greater and greater, the support for it goes down and objections grow. We are already in that stage now.
Patrick is right that many people thought this might be over quickly. Probably because of assuming it might be like the June 2025 war that, according to Israel and Donald Trump was going to ensure long term peace and security as promised by the fork tongue charlatans that started this war:
June 22, 2025:
Netanyahu praises Trump's 'bold decision' to strike Iranian nuclear sites
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XL4rmsJHX08
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tjc, I'm sorry if these politics offend you because you're MAGA but its exactly what is controlling our markets right now.
The FUTURES markets as we all know are not trading the amount of crude in storage or other factors at this point in time on Sunday, March 8, 2026. Nor is the stock market trading today. It's projecting the future in X, Y and Z realms that go out weeks and maybe months. Dialing in risk(war) premium. And right now, the length of the war matters more than anything else and only the mind of Donald Trump will determine that.
Studying past behavior is very relevant to projecting market prices and also to trying to predict what Donald Trump might do next.
This is one possibility that I speculated on earlier which I feel is more likely than not but nobody really knows what Trump might do:
Market opens tonight, 3-8-2026/crude
By metmike - March 8, 2026, 6:45 p.m.
If the price of gas keeps going higher, then what?
Then what: The support for his unjustified, unprovoked, against International law, against humanity war will go lower and lower as it hits the pocketbooks of Americans that realize that THEY are being punished by the pathological thinking of Donald Trump!!!!
As I speculated last week, it will be pivot time for Donald Trump. He will make up something to justify the end of the war and claim the most incredible success of the US military in history and make this the 9th war that he ended.
"When in the 5 years of Trump as president have you seen him back down"
Thanks, cutworm:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_Always_Chickens_Out
Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO) is a term that gained prominence in May 2025 after many threats and reversals during the trade war U.S. president Donald Trump initiated with his administration's "Liberation Day" tariffs
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His MAGA supporters like to refer to this as "The art of the deal" and Trump being the world's best negotiator.
I have described it with a more reality based view.
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By metmike - Sept. 14, 2025, 6:10 p.m.
Re: Re: Re: More delusional tariffs!
By metmike - Sept. 14, 2025, 7:52 p.m.
Trump backed down from NATO standing up to him on Greenland. Trump "saved face" by falsely claiming that he got what he wanted through negotiations. "We have a concept of a deal."
I fear that he thinks he can get the same result as in Venezuela. It doesn't appear so.
Trump just said on CBS something about our work in Iran having accomplished what we wanted done, according to CNN.
He's jawboning the markets to go back in the direction he wants which seemed like a likely outcome for me.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Sold 1 Emini S&P 6902
By metmike - March 9, 2026, 3:37 p.m.
Re: Re: Re: Market opens tonight, 3-1-2026/crude
By metmike - March 9, 2026, 3:41 p.m.
By Reuters
Key Points
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A reminder that we finished last week with Donald Trump insisting that the war was going much longer (3 or 4 weeks) and Department of War moron, Pete Hegseth screaming "we're just getting started!!!!"
As expected, the markets went bonkers and as expected, Donald Trump was NOT anticipating that and as expected, TACO Trump had to completely change the narrative to get the markets(that are trading his chaotic statements) back in line with where he wants them.
Sorry for the politics but the politics are driving the markets right now on the trading forum.
Crude front month plunged 10 cents in just 25 minutes a little while ago! I wonder what happened.
It’s now down 5 on the day to 86, which is an amazing $33 lower than its 119 peak just 17-18 hours ago! This is an historic day for crude oil in terms of volatility.
Now that I read Mike’s last post, I realize it had to be due to what DT just said about the war possibly being over soon. Of course he just said possibly or may be.
The crude spike will be over when the insurance companies KNOW shipping is safe and, with increased insurance premiums, they are ready to insure the ship and its cargo once again! Profit motive!
By a remarkable coincidence, Trump declared victory after a call from Putin.
https://www.usatoday.com/videos/news/2026/03/09/president-trump-describes-very-good-call-with-vladimir-putin/89074378007/
Thanks, Patrick! That is interesting.
With Donald Trump, the opposite of what he says is much more likely to be the truth.
By Nandita Bose, Dmitry Antonov and Olena Harmash
Thanks, tjc,
The crude spike will be over when Donald Trump declares Netanyahu's war is over.
Netanyahu had to bomb Iran and controls Donald Trump. He forced Donald Trump to REBUKE Iran's HUGE peace offering to reduce their enriched uranium because a peace deal on the enriched uranium, which was pretty close to the one that Donald Trump claimed that he wanted, would negate Netanyahu/Israel's 3 decades long "Iran is on the verge of attacking us with nuclear bombs and we must attack them first to defend ourselves.
This is why we still have not been given a clear reason that makes any sense about why we suddenly attacked Iran without provocation and with no threat to the United States, against International law.
This is why the markets are unable to trade the important fundamental. Because it has no idea what Donald Trump will say or do next.
Donald Trump, actually has no idea.
He completely changed his messaging today after the energies soared and stocks plunged, something he had not anticipated last week/over the weekend.
I speculated last week and Sunday Night that this is what Donald Trump would do when the unanticipated (by him but obvious to many) negative consequences hit.
For the rest of the week, many of these markets will be trading the news that comes out of Donald Trump's mouth, just like it has for over a week now.
The most unpredictable, lack of vision, lack of understanding the negative consequences, chaotic man in history has the markets and traders/investors by the balls right now.
The good news is that the stock market and price of crude/gas is an extremely high priority for Donald Trump as we witnessed today. He will change his tune, make contradictions and adjust his positions to keep the stock market up and energy prices down. So he does understand some of what makes those markets tick.
He got caught off guard with the market reaction Sunday Night and early Monday with his extreme saber rattling but I feel he's not likely to go down that path again.
Iran knows this too.
So the chances of him ramping up the attacks again, sending in ground troops or escalating to the point of it doing what happened 24 hours ago have been greatly reduced.
Iran knows this too.
The most likely scenario is that he realizes that Iran is NOT going to let him put his guy in charge. There will not be a regime change and with regards to the uranium, Iran had caved already but now the chances of them coming back to the negotiating table have plunged.
With that being the case, it's likely that he will continue with today's huge pivot.
Declare that we won the war ......BY ALOT. Then end the war and make up things that were accomplished and we all go back to the way things were earlier this year.
Since there is no nuclear deal and Iran still has the enriched uranium, the potential for Israel to claim Iran is on the verge of a bomb and we need to attack again could repeat. ......which is EXACTLY what Netanyahu wants to justify the next attack.
No provocation again. so silly to hear this cnn crap day after day. Do I really have to back 50 years and list the tons of provocation again? Jesus, maybe if I just put the obits of all our soldiers Iran has killed will help....probably not, the left has gone round the corner.
Another newer poll on who feels what and who would trust who in America. Question.... is America a positive force for the world? Rebulicans yes 91%.....Democrats 69% no. Damn and you wonder why they cannot be trusted.
Kind of makes a normal person want to keep their kids way far away from public education and Ivy Leagues colleges doesn't it
Thanks very much for the MAGA view, mcfarm!
no problem. And thankyou very much for the progressive, ultra liberal, left leaning cnn style of reporting.
Thanks much, mcfarm,
Just to let you know.
1. Personal attacks have 0 impact on me.
2. Personal attacks on fellow posters make the person doing the attacking look bad.
3. You're still my friend because, as I said personal attacks have 0.000% impact on me.
4. When I say thanks for the MAGA view, its not intended to be any sort of an attack. I really do cherish and welcome views that disagree with me and I'm not trying to denigrate it by labeling it as a MAGA view because that's exactly what it is, regardless of whether I agree or not.
5. You and I have plenty of things that we agree on and that's what's important to me.
By metmike - Feb. 24, 2025, 10:06 a.m.
of course ...thanks for the maga this or that....don't be silly after all the multitude of things you have said about Maga there is only one to take...as an insult. Own up to it. When I said thanks for left cnn side I meant it, You have been on quite the roll if you haven' t noticed. A very tiring roll that many times has missed the mark. Someday some of these thing will come back to haunt you.
Thanks mcfarm,
Both of us are the only ones responsible for the manner in which we communicate.
I go out of my way to try to respect you as a human being/person and encourage you to express the views that disagree with me.
You are not telling the truth about me. I do not have the political affiliations that you mischaracterize me of having. You constantly accuse me of having TDS, despite the fact that I voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and 2024 and defended him numerous times when he was being unfairly attacked.
You've been doing it for so many years that this is your normal. Ten of millions of other people behave this way on social media so that this is acceptable.
I'm convinced that you are sincerely expressing your views in a manner that you have used for so long that you don't know any different. It's counterproductive for me to spend much time analyzing the flawed manner in which you communicate because I would be unfairly doing it from a mind that understands what I think is a better way.
Your posting speaks for itself and when my response is "Thanks for the MAGA view, mcfarm" and no commens, this is what it usually means:
1. You and I both agree that you are MAGA, correct? I assume that you are proud of being MAGA, correct? Your opinions are MAGA views, correct?
2. I will often allow you to have an UNCHALLENGED post, even when I strongly disagree with it, like the one that you claim was intented to be an insult. This is honestly my way of respecting your RIGHT to have an opinion, even when it's the opposite of mine. You are dead wrong to claim that I did it as an insult and you are out of line to tell me what my own mind is thinking.
3. I watch Fox News and you can imagine my disagreements with them. Yesterday, I posted on the NTR forum on Lindsey Grahams comments on Sean Hannity last night that I extremely disagreed with. My wife asks me all the time "Why do you watch Fox so much if you disagree with everything" I can't honestly disagree with things if I don't first listen sincerely to what they are saying. The authentic scientific method requires the scientist to try to prove themselves wrong first. The inability to prove yourself wrong is the best indicator for confidence in being right. I bash Fox here all the time because I watch them with an open mind that knows both sides. They intentionally broadcast things that their MAGA viewers want to hear/see to get blockbuster ratings. They are 100%, one sided.
4. I watch CNN too. They lean strongly left but have numerous MAGA guests and some permanent MAGA guests. I don't just go to places that tell me what I want to hear/read, just like I want posters here telling us their views from both sides.
5. For obvious reasons, Marketforum is very dominated by metmike's views. I use some of those views to speak out against evil in the world and Donald Trump is featured in many of my posts about evil. Readers already get an eyeful of those from me. I really, REALLY don't want this to be an echo chamber that only reflects my opinions. Not only would that be shutting out some great points(that disagree with me) but it stifles my own learning. There have been many hundreds of posts here that have enriched my understanding of the world and some of them came from you.
By patrick - March 9, 2026, 8:26 p.m.
By a remarkable coincidence, Trump declared victory after a call from Putin.
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Kyiv • UNN
• 68261 views
The US President announced the lifting of restrictions to lower fuel prices. Trump also announced the swift end of the war against Iran in the near future.
https://unn.ua/en/news/trump-cancels-sanctions-against-countries-buying-russian-oil
The volatility in energy markets because of the war in Iran could not come at a better time for President Vladimir V. Putin.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/world/middleeast/iran-war-putin-russia-energy-oil-prices.html
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metmike: Rewarding Russia for helping Iran because of a manufactured good call with Putin to jawbone the crude oil price lower because high gas prices make Donald Trump look bad.!
Hegseth warns Russia as signs point to Moscow sharing intel with Iran
War secretary's comments come as reports suggest Moscow may be providing intelligence to Iran
https://unn.ua/en/news/trump-cancels-sanctions-against-countries-buying-russian-oil
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So far this week, Trump has blinked and blinked, then retracted, then blinked then made threats, then blinked. Declared it's not a war, just an incursion, then its a war that we won already, then its an incursion to prevent a war, then we need to still continue the incursion a bit more, then we already won the war by so much we don't know what to do. We won in the first hour. Anytime I want the war to end I can end it. Then, we still need to finish the war.
Those are just a bunch of the ones that I heard him say out of numerous times more than that.
Those were the actual words of Donald Trump the past 3 days, judge for yourselves.
This is why Donald Trump has lost the confidence of the markets right now. There is only 1 path. End the war ASAP., like I speculated he would do and he's already defined the predicted narrative, even before ending the war.
"We won easily" "It was the biggest win in US military history" "We destroyed A, B, C, D.....X,Y,Z and Iran has no military left or nuclear weapons capability. We accomplished even more than expected and alot sooner because it was so easy. We made the world safe from Iran. We taught Iran a lesson for their 5 decades of terrorism because no other president had the guts to do this. I'm sure that I've missed numerous narratives that Donald Trump will use but you get the idea.
Just to repeat, I totally respect and admire (am grateful to) our brave soldiers that constantly risk their lives because of their patriotic devotion to our country. We owe everything to them. I recognize that Iran is an extremely evil country and we have taken out some of their military power which is a really good thing.
Despite that, all the authentic facts stated in this thread are true and are impacting numerous markets in a negative way, with the damage far exceeding the confusing objectives that Donald Trump doesn't seem to understand.
Last week, for instance Donald Trump was telling the regime in Iran to throw down their weapons and surrender immediately.
A few days earlier he told the Iranian people that this would be their only chance, once in a generation opportunity to take their country.
At other times, it was pay backs for what they did 50 years ago.
Or it was because he had magical mystery clairvoyance and knew that Iran was getting ready to attack us so we had to attack them first
Or it was the nuclear program that he insisted he obliterated last June with those attacks.
Yes, those are political facts but the same ones responsible for why the markets do not trust what Donald Trump says and the politics of this war are in the drivers seat for determining the prices in many markets.
I have fairly high confidence that Donald Trump's biggest mission right now is to get crude prices back down and resurrect the stock market. With that being the case, he will have no choice but to announce the war is over and we are pulling back.
Along with that will come all of his delusional narratives and descriptions but Donald Trump is seeing his precious legacy as the King of the stock market highs and low energy prices being messed up. This matters to Donald Trump far more than anything going on with Iran.
However, he can't control what Iran says and does at this point. They may be on a mission to punish Donald Trump for this unprovoked attack.........the law of unintended consequences.
There is a near 100% of blowback from this with cyber and terrorist attacks here at home. It's impossible to know how much other than...........MUCH MORE than expected before the unprovoked war.
The worst part of all this is that Iran had just agreed to Donald Trumps demands to reduce its enriched uranium.
Blinking is off the table.
Patrick, that was the funniest things that I've seen here in some time!!!!
Thank you for that!
Everybody knows that the US and Israel have the greatest military's in history and can obliterate Iran........which is happening. One of the psychopaths in power exploiting that overwhelming power for their agenda has overlooked some things things and the law of unintended consequences. I strongly believe that Netanyahu probably saw this coming and doesn't care. After watching what he did to Gaza, we got a crystal clear view of how his mind works. Iran is the much bigger and REAL threat to Israel. The price of oil going up and the stock market are like a pimple on an elephant's butt compared to how important it is for him to do what he sucked Donald Trump into doing FOR HIM.
Donald Trump did it because he thought it would be easy and make him look great and that's how Netanyahu sold it to him as. Donald Trump the world's most powerful man, uniting his army, the most powerful army in human history, with the world's 2nd most powerful army. How could they lose? He been bragging from the start of this. "We're winning so much, we don't know what to do"
And their mission would eliminate the worlds biggest terror sponsoring country and make the entire world safe and the entire world would be thanking Donald Trump and see him as a great leader and hero forever in history.
I assure you that's how Netanyahu sold this to Donald Trump who has been using that exact tactic on Donald Trump for years because it has continually worked. It works because Netanyahu, like others (that suck up to him) understand Donald Trump's pathologically thinking psyche that cherishes anyone and anything that adulates Donald Trump and provides paths for Donald Trump's greatness. It completely blinds him to any other realities!!!
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I'm going to start a separate thread on the SPR and also discuss the difference between types of crude and the demand/supply dynamics of US and global crude oil since it will be numerous posts long.