Starting a new thread
Monday the 30th at 11:00 central time, is the planting intentions report, and stocks report
Average trade guess corn 94.37 acres, final 2025 98.79 acres
Average trade guess soybeans 85.55 acres, final 2025 81.22 acres
Average trade guess wheat 44.79acres, final 2025 45.33 acres
Discussion here starts at 5:09
Crude Oil is $96 per Barrel - Corn Should Be $XXX per Bushel
Thanks a zillion, cutworm.
Perfect timing! The previous grain thread was getting excessively long and planting season is starting in the South.
And grains are the MOST important market here between now and September!
And for me in every single year since I started trading in 1992!
Previous thread:
USDA/grains 1-12-26
60 responses |
Started by metmike - Jan. 12, 2026, 1:28 p.m
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/117148/
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Key weather discussions here:
2-17-26 El Nino, here we come-FAST!
Started by metmike - Feb. 17, 2026, 11:54 a.m.
Time to get serious about the weather for the United States planting and growing season!!
Get all the comprehensive weather here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
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Big parts of the Eastern Cornbelt and Great Lakes have had their soil moisture recharged.
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
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Updated daily below:
https://mrcc.purdue.edu/cliwatch/watch.htm#curMonths
Snapshot below:
March rains have reduced drought from MO to N.OH.
NEW LINK:
https://www.drought.gov/current-conditions
Thru March 24, 2026
DROUGHT MONITOR
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
More rains are coming up to reduce the drought areas:
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
2 week rains from the last 12z GEFS model below:
Latest 12z European model forecast below:
Light gray is 5+ inches. The rapidly oncoming El Nino has had me expecting this for awhile, Spring Planting season is not the best time to recharge soil moisture. Hopefully, we'll have enough breaks and the rains won't get too excessive. Producers can plant extraordinarily fast in this age. Rains like this will be nice in the vegetative state into August. I'm hopeful for this growing season because of El Nino.
By metmike - Feb. 17, 2026, 3:25 p.m.
Heaviest rains have shifted 100 miles farther northwest compared to Saturdays forecast.
Still looks like much of the Cornbelt could see 2+ inches the next 2 weeks. Higher amounts from the Great Lakes across the Mississippi River to around IA/MO to the southeast Plains. Many of those spots are on the dry side for soil moisture here in late March and rains are not necessarily a bad thing and It’s extremely early for planting right now.
I see the map I copied didnt get saved and will fix that when back on the computer later. The 7 day rain total map on the previous page is constantly,updated and shows it exactly……the shift northwest of the heaviest rains.
the usda report is tomorrow, Tuesday.
This was the last 18z GEFS. Most of this will fall this week!
with a dry 5 days or so after that and good opportunities to plant fast NEXT week.
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Warm temperatures in week 2 will help provide early emergence to crops planted in April.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SUQEPL2hj14
The take home point from his wonderful, comprehensive discussion is below.
We have much MORE drought currently than we did to start Spring 2012 of our last widespread severe drought in the Cornbelt during the growing season.
That year, 2012 on the right featured an entirely different temperature configuration in the Pacific a LA NINA, compared to the current RAPIDLY DEVELOPING EL NINO on the left.
The contrast is incredibly stark and the implications are very good for timely rains in the Cornbelt for the 2026 growing season. Not a sure thing but greatly increasing the odds of above average rains and greatly reducing the odds of severe widespread drought.
It's NOT good to start with drought like we currently have but in 2012, we rapidly planted the crop in the dry Spring as we increased the drought in the Spring and it greatly amplified into early Summer, along with intense heat AFTER the crop was planted in record time from dry weather.
Ideally, we'll get the crop planted in timely fashion in 2026, THEN get good rains. We can't forecast with the skill of a 1 week forecast at this time frame(the next 5 months) and can only use past indicators, like El Nino and La Nina but odds are STRONGLY in our favor for good growing season weather based on everything we know right now.
%20Mar%2030%202026%202012%20v%202026%20April%20Rains%20Svr%20Storms%20Drought%20in%20Plains%20%26%20Southeast%20SNOW%20North...%20-%20YouTube.png)
...The bullish crop report caused an initial spike higher with follow thru buying!
U.S. corn plantings come in above trade expectations while soybeans and wheat come in below.
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U.S. March 1 corn andwheat stocks come in below trade expectations, soybeans come in above.
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U.S. wheat plantings come in lower than analysts expected across all categories. 2026 all wheat acres are set to hit an all-time low in records back to 1919. Spring wheat acres are seen at a 56-year low.
+++++++++++++U.S. cotton plantings came in larger than expected and above 2025's area. All small grain plantings came in below expectations.
C, S and W are all lower right now than before the release of yesterday's bullish crop report. Maybe crude prices being lower are a factor? Are the beneficial rains in drought areas a factor??
Trying to trade weather in the planting season is nearly impossible any year, especially with so much drought. Producers need dry weather to plant but they also need rain to recharge depleted soil moisture.
It would have to get EXTREMELY wet to be too wet in this environment. The wetness we have coming the next 2 weeks is close to 200% of average rains but that is not wet enough to be bullish because much of that will soak in and be beneficial later in the season for roots to tap into during any dry spells. And its still early enough with tons of time left to get the crop in early with any breaks between now and late May.
The first crop progress report will be coming out soon.
2 week rain forecast from the latest 6z GEFS.
I’m going to adjust that statement above with regards to the winter wheat crop that’s already in the ground.
Rain makes grain!
boy did those weather maps work out....5 inches on some maps and not a sprinkle yet in the bullseye of many maps
Thanks, mcfarm!
Hugh????
Those are 2 week rainfall maps and the rain is just starting to fall. I'll refrain from making the sarcastic comment on my mind which would only contribute to your negativity trying to rain on our MarketForum parade
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83849
Excessive rain threat.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Current Day 1 Forecast
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 2 Forecast |
Day 3 outlook
Excessive Rainfall Outlook Day 4 Static Image
the comment weas on weather warnings for this week ....all week... and Thursday looks mostly dry again.....not a sprinkle with that forecast is just silly
The weather is behaving very close to the forecasts, mcfarm but thanks for your perspective!
Severe weather week of March 30, 2026
Started by metmike - March 30, 2026, 12:46 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/119107/
Re: Re: Re: Re: Severe weather risk week of March 30, 2026
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By metmike - April 1, 2026, 7:59 p.m.
tracking the most adverse weather below:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/119107/#119152
Extended weather suggests producers will plant a crop. Highs in??
Great question, tjc!!!
I've never felt less confident in where the grains might go from here. I need to spend some time over the weekend posting some charts and analysis to get a better handle on it. And read more about the current fundamentals. I know the weather but as you know too, in planting season it's never as clear as the growing season when rain makes grain.
The Iran war, the price of fertilizer, price of crude/gas and other elements make this especially tricky.
Apr 3, 2026: 80% Drought Coverage | Midwest & S. Plains Severe Storms | Sunday Brief Rain Southeast
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9D-XcRZ0SD8
Last 18z GEFS total rains for the next 384 hours. Still more rains coming to key growing regions. Dry areas in the Midwest should be wiped out.
My biggest concern since February is the rapidly increasing El Nino will make it too wet, too early and delay planting in the Midwest.
It's impossible to know where the excessive rains will set up later this Spring but the El Nino signal is unmistakable for increased flooding potential downstream in the US.......SOMEWHERE! Every year is different.
The SOUTH to the MID ATLANTIC need rains the most!!
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
First crop report of the year. Too early for much planting except for oats which is off to an average planting pace.
Winter wheat is in BAD shape, especially since it dropped 13% since the last rating in November, before it went dormant. Only 35% Good/excellent and 31% Poor/Very poor.
Wheat WILL open higher tonight!!!
https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog1426.pdf
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All the bad ratings came from HRW states which obviously had a rough Winter dormant period.
The SRW crop is doing pretty good in those states of MO/IL/IN/OH!
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Corn seed likes temperatures above 50 degrees for germination.
This map is updated daily(with previous days data).
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/agclimate/soilt.php
https://www.pioneer.com/us/agronomy/soil_temp_corn_emergence.html
Figure 4. Relationship of soil temperature at planting depth (7-day average after planting) to final stand at stress emergence research locations in 2018.
Figure 10. A 15-degree temperature difference was observed midday on April 15, 2019 in a central Iowa field between soil under no residue and soil under heavy residue
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So in April, corn producers WANT HEAT!!!! Especially when soil moisture is good.
Get all the comprehensive weather here:
Only 35% of U.S. winter wheat is in good or excellent condition, below all trade estimates and down notably from late Nov. This is the week's fourth lowest rating of the last decade. Corn, cotton and spring wheat planting have just begun, right on schedule
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U.S. corn export inspections easily top all estimates, soybeans also exceed. This marks corn's third largest weekly volume so far in 2025/26. Some 64% of the week's inspected soybeans were destined for China.
Corn pulls off an impressive 2+ mmt week and soybeans are not going away quietly. Both doing what they need to do (for now) to reach marketing year expectations.
Funds are record bullish CBOT soybean oil & Minne wheat, and they're now net long in CBOT wheat for the first time in nearly 4 years. But funds' corn buying streak snapped. I discuss implications of specs' latest positioning in Sunday's mailing, plus a bonus on corn exports.
Wheat DID open higher, spiked to +4c then immediately sold back down to unch. So the crop deterioration is not a shocker.
Wheat is -3c.
I'm thinking that the BEARISH weather for the Winter Wheat crop with expectations of improved ratings from beneficial weather is what the market is trading.
18z GEFS rains for the next 384 hours.
3am: The last 0z GEFS and other models continue with big rains for the Winter wheat belt, WK is now -7c!
The last 6z GEFS had a bit less rain in the Plains HRW.
The wheat market made its lows shortly before that and bounced back into positive territory when the daytime traders entered the market(funds?)
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Apr 8, 2026: Cloned… | Another Look at the Super Niño Forecast | Very Active Severe Weather Pattern
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atwp8zFBoVA
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Matt was in with our weather this morning:
Apr 9, 2026: Elvis Concern | Classic Plains Severe Risk | Split-May Jet?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8_m8p1t2LU
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Laryngitis Eric was in today!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjd2TZD3vzY
ENOUGH to selloff.
Look to buy Monday. Corn is/will be half cycle low; beans look for 3 day rule to buy after wednesday low; meal will retrace; bean oil 'deserves' a huge drop, TO BUY as it will be daily and 17 week cycle low (6400); wheat may have bottomed Friday (53 days (extended) in 25th week; oats approaching 20-24 days in 13th week with %R buys; rice at half primary weekly low timeframe at daily low timeframe.
Two cents
Thanks, tjc!
Too early for weather trading until C and S are planted(or threatened by flooding/drought forecasts)..
Winter wheat on the other hand that IS growing right now has been pressured by good rains in the forecast but the key western HRW areas will miss out this week.
Also, there is substantial drought in the South/Southeastern half of the US. Rains there are the most important right now.
This was the just out 6z GEFS total rain forecast for the next 384 hours(16 days).
Not much different than previous guidance but its bearish W and will prevent drought risk premium from building what often happens at this time of year.
At some point, it could result in planting delays but it usually takes a WETTER forecast than this and the window to get the crop planted is still too wide(too early in the season) for that now. My take is that this is bearish by charging up the soil moisture profile for the C and S growing season and potentially bearish for wheat.........rains in the key western HRW belt are still not very good/we'd like the rains to shift a bit west.
16 days below:
7 Day Total precipitation below: This one is updated:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
The soil moisture and 7 day rain forecast above are updated automatically on this page every day.
Precipitation in March in the HRW #wheat belt averaged 0.40", 0.98" below normal to make it the 10th driest on record (and the driest March since 1997)
Unfortunately, news about the Strait of Hormuz and the war is also causing chaos in the grain markets with all of them opening higher on Sunday.
However, only the wheat is holding significant gains on Monday morning, likely because the driest and most important HRW belt areas are going to be just west of the great rains(as mentioned on Sunday).
This was the last 6z GEFS for the next 16 days. Western parts of the South in drought will get some great rains. The Central and Eastern Cornbelt will get even more rains on top of the recent rains. Still tons of time to dry out and plant.
However western KS/NE to the panhandles of OK/TX are just west of the big rains!
Wheat condition dropped -1% from the excellent to the +1% poor. The market likely expected that without much rain in the driest HRW spots.
Heading wheat needs moisture NOW!!! It's advanced maturity in the drought areas has already lowered final wheat yields.
Corn, HRS, cotton planting average, beans off to a fast start.
https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/crop-progress
https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795859/prog1526.txt
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soybeans are 6% planted, above expectations and historically quick. Corn is 5% planted, slightly ahead of last year. Winter wheat conditions dropped another point this week.
U.S. Week 2-4 Outlook: The National Pattern Cools Off and Turns Wetter
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Matt was in with our weather this morning!
Apr 14, 2026: Midwest Severe Weather Continues | Southeast Rain Chances | Typhoons & Hurricanes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ey8C100S04
Rain the next 16 days from the last 18z GEFS
European model 46 day rain anomalies. Thru May 29. 
The last 16 day, 6z GEFS has a bit less rain because some of it has fallen this week. 2 inches is still pretty good and very welcome in the drought areas
Eric was in with our weather this morning!
Midwest Severe Storms | Breaking Down the Bermuda High | Frost...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fsHRH90U5g4
2pm: This was the total rain forecast from the last 12z GEFS for the next 384 hours=16 days. The light blue is 2+ inches. Average to slightly above average in those places. The rain distribution has NOT been very wide recently. Bigger than needed rains in many spots, near nothing is the driest areas. The highest amounts in the latest forecast are not as great as a week ago because so much of the HEAVY rain fell already in last weeks especially wet forecast.
Less than a month to go before this has major impacts to the growing season in places with severe drought. Germination and early establishment will be very poor in places without moisture in the top soil.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
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Looking into the first 2 weeks of May, the weather looks beneficial for restoring moisture(low evaporation rates/cool temps and above rain) according to the NWS maps below. The weather pattern at the end of 2 weeks does not look that wet to me(cool yes) but hopefully the pattern will morph wetter in week 3 and the NWS will be right.
I'll start using daily model data that captures weeks 3+ here.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/
I’ve been so focused on the impact of dry soils on the HRW crop that I overlooked this brief, robust cold shot that will likely do a bit of damage tonight. In parts of the Plains.
9am: I missed the exact lows from a couple of hours ago but the HRW crop is more mature than usual from heat this Spring and was vulnerable to a bit of damage early this morning in some places of the far western Plains:
https://www.mesonet.org/weather/air-temperature/national-wind-chill-heat-index
https://sanangelo.tamu.edu/agronomy/agronomy-publications/freeze-injury-on-wheat/
Unfortunately, the USDA doesn't give us booted or jointed wheat national stats anymore but there was no headed wheat in NE/KS(most vulnerable states).
https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/crop-progress
https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795859/prog1526.txt
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Fortunately, we can look specifically at #1 wheat producer, KS to get some of that which shows just over 50% of the Winter wheat Jointed. In those places that dropped below 30 degrees last night, there was likely "some" damage.
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I checked all the hourly data in the state of KS and found that only in the far northwest parts of the state did temperatures dropped into the mid 20's for several hours. This would be enough to do X amount of damage to the wheat that is jointed there. This is from Goodland, KS, which looks to be the cold spot early this morning:
https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KGLD.html
I found a great site for getting rainfall data. Just put in your zip code!
It shows that we got .50 of wonderful, needed rain this morning.
Rain thread April 2026
Started by metmike - April 20, 2026, 10:35 a.m.
Crop Progressive/conditions
https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/crop-progress
https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795867/prog1626.txt
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Winter wheat -4%, however, most of it 3% was from good to fair category, with a +1% in poor(0% chance in excellent, 0% change in vp)
U.S. winter wheat conditions fell below all trade estimates to 30% good/excellent. That's approaching 2022 & 2023, among the lowest scoring years in recent memory. Despite some wet weather, U.S. corn & bean planting pace met expectations and remain ahead of average levels.
Drought coverage in U.S. winter wheat country was unchanged on the week at 68% - near 2022's weekly record. But the acceleration is more concerning, setting 2026 apart from the rest. Coverage has risen 26 percentage points since late Jan, the period’s largest jump on record.
Only 30% of U.S. winter wheat is in good or excellent health, down 18 points from late November. Yields were generally poor in years with similar mid-April health. Further, this rating might not reflect possible damage from recent freezing temps, as those impacts often lag.
To address this drought, we're dedicating a special rain/drought thread:
Rain/drought thread April 2026
Started by metmike - April 20, 2026, 10:35 a.m.
Eric was in with our weather this morning!
Apr 20, 2026: Frost & Snow Chances | Late Week Severe Storms | Rains in Southeast | Models are DRY
Five of the top U.S. winter wheat states (63% of the 2026 planted area) carry concerning health ratings. The shares of wheat rated poor or very poor in these five states are well above recent averages. But more notably, conditions have taken a nosedive since the fall.
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Wheat was down 6c today. Likely from big rains coming. Initially the best rains will miss the highest HRW production areas.
Re: Rain/drought thread April 2026
By metmike - April 20, 2026, 10:38 a.m.
Dec corn's annual high sits at $4.98-1/2 per bu, set on March 9. But March highs are rare - last one was in 1999. Nov soybeans' current high also falls in the second week of March. The last time new-crop corn & soy both set annual highs in March? Never (at least since 1973).
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Eric was in with our weather today:
Apr 22, 2026: Failed Forecast in Southeast | Hvy Snow in CAN | 5-Days of Severe Storms + Graceland
Eric was in with our weather this morning!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qmfGX-7Nnl8
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Continuing to update the rain forecasts for drought relief in the South:
Re: Rain/drought thread April 2026
By metmike - April 20, 2026, 10:38 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/119657/#119658
70% of U.S. winter wheat areas are now in a drought, tying 2022's record for the week. That's also the highest level of drought coverage across winter wheat areas for any week since December 2022. The TX/OK panhandle region worsened this week, and the forecast isn't generous.
Rain/drought thread April 2026
10 responses |
ield carries the U.S. corn crop. Top U.S. corn producer Iowa plants far fewer acres than Brazil's leading state of Mato Grosso, yet Iowa still produces more corn.
U.S. winter wheat conditions were unchanged on the week at 30% good/exc. Corn and soybean planting remain ahead of both average and what analysts expected.
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https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795878/prog1726.pdf
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U.S. soybean planting is on a record fast pace as farmers prefer to plant beans earlier. Most states are many percentage points ahead of average (except Iowa, which has been wet). But wet weather/early bean planting haven't held back corn planting, which is also ahead of avg.
Winter Wheat in Poor + Very Poor Condition woof
Wheat and corn are moving and have some of the best long-term charts in the commodity space. Look at
. Hence why I've been adding to my wheat and corn futures over the past two weeks.
Matt was in with our weather this morning:
Apr 28, 2026: Severe Wx Recap | Sub-Tropical Jet | Carolinas | May Uncertainty | El Niño
December corn near $5 for the 3rd time. Will it break higher like wheat?
Wheat broke to new highs Monday and made new highs today but closed lower.
EDIT :Kansas wheat broke to new highs on the 24th, has been making new highs since.
Thanks, cutworm!
Long range forecasts don't have great skill and will likely change but the latest shows a potentially bullish weather pattern evolving. No huge dome, just drying out in the Plains and WCB and setting the stage, if heat arrives to be bullish in June.
Low confidence:
:
Rain/drought thread April 2026
Started by metmike - April 20, 2026, 10:35 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/119657/
However, HIGH confidence for that area to dry out the next 2 weeks with very cool temperatures reducing drying rates and impact. The May sun is getting pretty high in the sky though and it can accelerate drying! That extra power is also a good reason to plant early.
Planting progress is doing great which will boost chances of good yields. Early planted crops that don't do well are usually drought years.
You want your crops to be in a vegetative state and thru filling when it can maximize the amount of sun to capture solar photons and turn them into chemical energy in the plant via photosynthesis.
The peak sun angle is on June 21st, so theoretically a plant with exposed leaves can soak up the most solar energy between April 21st and August 21st which are 60 days before that and 60 days after that.
If we shift that window to May 21st to September 21st for instance, there will be more GDDs for faster development from warmer temps but you lose some of the most powerful sun.
There are other factors. Like having more time to dry down an early crop than a late planted one which can save on drying costs and get the crop out of the weather sooner which can flatten it from a 60 mph wind just before harvest.
Also, soil moisture tends to get drawn down more as the growing season goes on.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effect_of_Sun_angle_on_climate
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Figure 2
One sunbeam one mile wide shines on the ground at a 90° angle, and another at a 30° angle. The one at a shallower angle covers twice as much area with the same amount of light energy.
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Seasonal differences in the Sun's declination, as viewed from the mid-northern city of New York, New York
cutworm,
Sorry for not responding specifically to your point.
cz26 had a previous contract high of 498.5 on March 9 (498 on March 23rd) and beat that with 499.5 yesterday and looked like it was potentially breaking out to the upside.
We got to 499.75 just before midnight last night but have reversed lower to 495 here, making it look like $5 resistance is a brick wall...........for now.
The overnight high for cn26 was 480 but that was 7.5c BELOW the previous high on March 9.
The thinly traded ck26 which is expiring soon, had a previous high of 476 but was 7c below that with its 469 high overnight and has had LOWER highs since the March 9 highs.
This Contango GROWING since March 9(wider spread between the front month and new crop back month) is the result of the new crop/deferred contract strength, which is usually not a bullish sign short term but it can also be from the market dialing in more weather risk premium ahead of the growing season. Or it could be from expectation of less corn being planted and more beans. Or it could be from an expectation of higher fertilizer costs resulting in less nitrogen applications that are so important for robust corn yields. Less nitrogen on our corn would reduce yields/production.
Soaring fertilizer prices
Started by metmike - March 17, 2026, 11:21 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/118736/
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/urea
1. 1 year: Iran war upside break out.
2. Ukraine war in 2022 on top of already high prices on the left. Iran war upside break out on the right.
March planting actually INCREASED corn acres and dropped bean acres but the fertilizer price may change that? Good planting weather in the Spring often causes more corn/less beans with wet Springs causing less corn/more beans.
Planting progress has been unusual this Spring with bean planting off to a record smashing pace, despite the wonderful corn planting weather in most places.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/119029/#119845
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I looked at the bean market.
sx26 set a new contract high overnight of 1178 overnight, around 4c higher than the previous high in early March but like zc26, has reversed lower. The front months of soybeans May and July were 50c LOWER than their early March highs!!!!
So the contango/spread has increased around 50c for beans. Typically this is bearish with bull markets being led by front month strength but like with corn, could be led by expectations of more bullish dynamics later this year.
The war in Iran messes up everything here. Trying to dial that into current prices and price expectations is impossible. BREAKING NEWS on the Iran war is like hitting a land mine for traders on the wrong side of the knee jerk price spike in 1 direction that happens.
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Like cutworm mentioned, wn26 broke above the previous 650 high in March but closed/reversed LOWER yesterday and is lower again today which is putting in a top formation on the charts.
The HRW crop is in horrible shape has been on a tear upwards since it broke out last week from deteriorating conditions and made new highs by 50c yesterday(over the March high) but is SHARPLY lower today, -12c!
Nov CBOT soybeans inked a new yearly high of $11.78 per bushel in overnight trade on Thursday, replacing the old high from March 12. They have since eased. Setting annual highs in April is rare for new-crop soybeans. May is a bit more common, last occurring in 2018 & 2014.
November beans set a new contract high, reversed lower early today BUT CAME BACK to close slightly higher and is back to new record highs tonight for a clear upside breakout!!!!
The weather continues to turn potentially BULLISH in May.
By metmike - April 30, 2026, 11:28 p.m.
More potentially bullish longer range today!
I considered the big bounce this week, especially in new crop beans might have been helped by this cold.
The reality is that almost none of the crop was emerged on the last report in the areas that will be cold enough for damage and the freeze would need to be deep enough to hit the growing point under the ground.
A frost or light freeze in the light blue won't do that. The purple might do that if those states were farther along, even though they've planted faster than average. Even in those places, the coldest temps are only predicted to be 30 at the coldest.
I don't think the frost in NW Kansas will do much damage to the Winter Wheat crop there.
This is a freeze frame below:
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Current Hazards at the link below.
For your NWS and county, go to the link below.
Then you can hit any spot on the map, including where you live and it will go to that NWS with all the comprehensive local weather information for that/your county.
Crop report from Monday:
https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795878/prog1726.pdf
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Corn seed likes temperatures above 50 degrees for germination.
This map is updated daily(with previous days data).
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/agclimate/soilt.php
https://www.pioneer.com/us/agronomy/soil_temp_corn_emergence.html
Figure 4. Relationship of soil temperature at planting depth (7-day average after planting) to final stand at stress emergence research locations in 2018.
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Temperatures in Northwest Kansas will be close to doing a bit of damage to the HRW as they drop to just below freezing but probably not much damage. Any places that surprise on the cold side and drop into the mid 20's would have damage.
https://www.sunflower.k-state.edu/agronomy/wheat/freeze_damage.html
I'm long-term bullish Wheat. Below two charts and my reasoning leading to this view.
1st . Weekly chart showing a crappy attempt to move out of a wedge. After reaching fib 200% on May 30th 2023, we formed a channel or a trading range. I choose to view it as a channel. I could be wrong...
Not a very decisive setup imvho .. simply a bullish market trying to change direction.
2nd an annotated 4hr. at what I call "decision time"!! After moving out of the wedge I anticipated a move higher. Thus my either/or thinking, mentioned above. Maybe it's a range-bound market. I simply don't know... Anyway hope everyone finds this review helpful.
That's some outstanding analysis and charting, gedigan and very much appreciated!
Good for our "Post of the week"
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/119957/
We are seeing a huge disparity between the HRW crop price(with one of the worst crops from drought in the Plains) and the SRW crop price (with a decent crop farther east).
This was the last crop report from the state of Kansas(#1 wheat producer)
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One of the coldest spots in the state this morning, Goodland looks to have only dropped below 30 degrees by 1 degree for 1 hour.
https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KGLD.html
I found 1 spot just north of this, St. Francis, KS that dropped to 28 degrees very briefly. Freeze damage from this event is likely minimal.
https://sanangelo.tamu.edu/agronomy/agronomy-publications/freeze-injury-on-wheat/
I noted that Dec corn finally broke thru $5, up to 501.75 but settled below $5.
There are just too many things going on right now for me to have solid discernment for pinpointing the most important factor.
The Iran war, price of fertilizer, coming inflation, longer term models looking bullish for the western belt, huge funds buying, bullish technical indicators, the light freeze on Saturday morning.
The drought was essentially wiped out in the main corn belt this year which should have been BEARISH.
Maybe the severe drought in areas surrounding the Cornbelt is a bullish factor? Even so, its been getting better in the South with more rains this week.
An upcoming El Nino is BEARISH with good growing season analogs. I counted 10 different potential elements above to consider.
Uncertainty is often bullish because it gives speculators a reason to dial in more risk premium for the WHAT IF factor. There's reason #11! Uncertainty is usually highest the earlier it is in the growing season. Every day that passes get's us 1 day closer to the crop being made. The insanity of the worst energy crisis in history and the markets having no clue on when it will finally end is at the top of liquid energy market uncertainty.........there's reason #12. The price of crude oil(which is similar to the Iran war).
The new crop is leading the way and even more so with the beans that are OVER performing corn. If the market was anticipating acres switching from C to S, the beans should be weaker.
Another factor is potentiallly less APPLICATION of nitrogen because of the cost being a drag on corn yields.
WOW! Look at the record fund buying!
Beware, BEWARE! Note that fund buying dominated 5 out of the past 8 years during this time frame (but nothing close to this magnitude) with 3 of those years featuring fund selling.
In all 5 of those fund buying years the fund buying peaked right here or shortly before this, followed by funds LIQUIDATING a large portion of that, sometime huge long position.
I almost NEVER want to have the same position as a record in funds. Just the opposite in weather markets that turn. All the funds trying to cover at the same time are the text book set up for exploiting their record position.
As mentioned previously, there is EXTREME uncertainty in early May that has been fuel to feed fund buying, more than most years right now. Uncertainty feeds risk premium BEFORE we get legit information about the upcoming new crop that REDUCES uncertainty.
The only thing we can say with high confidence is that if planting continues to proceed well and drought does NOT build, these prices will be long gone in June and funds will be covering.
The main hope for higher prices will be building drought later this month. That can still happen. If not, DON'T BE LONG!!!!
What if crude spikes to $150 or even $200? Crazy things could happen but one of them for sure will be those prices KILLING THE ECONOMY. The tremendous economic slow down will offset the inflationary pressure from higher gas prices.
Funds ended April with a record net long for the date across U.S. grains & oilseeds, edging past 2021 and 2022. However, corn’s share looks different this time. I cover this, plus updated U.S. soybean crush pace and more, in my Sunday newsletter.
Crop progress/condition report from the USDA.
https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795893/prog1826.txt
Winter wheat had +1% good but also +2% poor. It's almost all the HRW crop doing badly this year from drought in the Plains.
NE(the worst), for instance has 67% poor to very poor ratings. 11% good and 0% excellent!!!!
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Eric was in with our weather this morning:
May 4, 2026: SNOW in CO | Weekend Frost Analysis | Stronger Storms Early This Week | Cold...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VCH8OFfq93I
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U.S. corn is 38% planted, equal to last year and ahead of average. At 33% planted, soybeans remain on their record fast pace, but analysts expected more progress last week. Winter wheat conditions improved 1 point.
winter wheat conditions improved this week - but did they? The share in good/excellent shape went up 1 point, but poor/very poor added 2 points. The top 3 states (54% of acres) saw a net expansion in the poor/very poor share, and top grower Kansas lost 1 pt in good/exc.
Matt was in with our weather today!
May 5, 2026: Late May Momentum | CO Snow | Southeast Severe
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7JztqiT8H7c
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Rain/Drought thread May 2026
Started by metmike - May 4, 2026, 9:44 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/120018/
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It just dawned on me that part of the funds loading up with record longs and these very strong recent prices, especially new crop could, at least partly be related to expectations of the upcoming SUPER DUPER El Nino.
Re: Re: 2-17-26 El Nino, here we come-FAST!
By metmike - May 5, 2026, 5:04 p.m.
Eric was in with our weather on Wednesday morning:
May 6, 2026: ECMWF Targets Historic El Niño | Snow in CO, then 70s… | Rain East (needed) | Late May
May 7, 2026: Tornadoes & Snow Recap | SW Trough ? | Carolinas & Plains Rain | Plains Heat
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTJD0dmevQM
U.S. imports of urea, a nitrogen fertilizer heavily used in farming, hit an all-time high in March 2026. The shipments were valued at $576 million. Q1 2026 imports were up 15% on the year. Top Q1 suppliers by volume:Russia 30%Qatar 25%Oman 11%Nigeria 9%
USDA REPORT next Tuesday!
Eric was in with our weather this morning:
May 8, 2026: Windy April | Heat Spreading East (finally) | Late May Pattern Shift & Storms in Plains
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWmz0wfxWMU
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The world's wheat cushion for 2026/27 is still largely uncertain. Current analyst scenarios span a 16.5-million-ton range in ending stocks for the upcoming marketing year, a reminder that global food systems remain highly sensitive to production and demand trends.
The WASDE report is May 12 , 11:00 central time
Thanks, cutworm!
Weather may be turning bearish. In a month, with most of the crop planted if we have above average rains in the forecast, it will be tough for C and S to go up.
However, the wild card is the impressive upper level ridge and heat in the center of the country. However, heat AND rain is an excellent thing before pollination of corn. After that COOL temps will maximum filling and yields(heat fill HURTS even with good soil moisture-because accelerated GDDs that cause the plant to mature quickly, also don't give it as much time to fill kernels as cool temps do. Cool temps result in more plump kernels vs hot temps
Temps WILL matter for corn from late July to early September .
Rains are most critical for beans in late July/August for flowering and pod fill.
In the absence of adverse weather, after the crop in mostly planted in May/early June, every day is a day closer to making the crop and risk premium comes out. Not gradually but in huge chunks on certain days, with pauses in between much of the time.
Funds have record longs right now, so beware on days they cover based on favorable crop development.
Weather is not the only game in town. The war in Iran, for instance is a Black Swan event for the crude oil and this is impacting other markets (fertilizer market for instance).
Will high fertilizer prices mean more beans???? Less nitrogen application and lower corn yields???
Updated MOST of the maps so far:
I was about to post: Why are grains not falling? This week will result in many acres getting planted albeit in cool soil, but plenty of moisture. This usually bearish, especially with generally warming temps. Cycle suggests maybe Monday-Wednesday strength, then decent "should" commence.
FYI---short beans, meal. oats
That seems reasonable to me, tjc!
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Speculators with record longs will be extremely vulnerable if we have favorable weather. Don't enter a long here without weather forecasts turning very bullish.
Bearish weather the next month+(if it happens) WILL cause C and S prices to drop hard at impossible to time periods and the record fund longs will be selling fuel that cause big spikes down.
The war in Iran is a wild card as is the oncoming SUPER El Nino.
Speculators built record bullish bets across U.S. grains & oilseeds in the first week of May, anchored by massive net longs in corn and soybeans. But which of those positions looks more vulnerable right now? I break this down in my Sunday newsletter.
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This doesn't matter that much because the market will be mostly focusing on the size of the new crop. Horrible HRW ratings have been giving the HRW price a bullish lift. However, harvest pressure in June is tough to fight.
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U.S. winter wheat conditions unexpectedly dropped to 28% good-to-excellent as of Sunday, the date's lowest reading in 30 years. U.S. corn and soybean planting remained ahead of average pace, with progress slightly topping analyst expectations.
https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/crop-progress
https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795898/prog1926.txt
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Eric was in with our weather today!
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8pm: Wheat is modestly higher tonight because of the worst crop ratings in the past 3 decades for this week.
