Please continue the crude oil discussion here.
Thanks very much, Larry! Previous thread below:
3-12-26 SPR oil/gas prices
71 responses |
Started by metmike - March 12, 2026, 11:26 a.m.
I copied the last few posts of the previous thread to make sure that patrick's posts are read.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: 3-12-26 SPR oil/gas prices
By patrick - April 18, 2026, 11:32 a.m.
And not only is the Strait completely closed, Iran attacked a tanker.
There's a ridiculous expectations loop : Everyone knows that nothing Trump says means anything, but everyone expects the market to flumph whenever he announces peace or war, so it does.
In this case, there may have been a bit of reality in the Lebanon ceasefire, but there was enough nonsense in the rest that it just annoyed the Iranians.
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By metmike - April 18, 2026, 12:11 p.m.
You are exactly right, Patrick!
Very seriously:
1. Iran, the world's biggest state sponsoring terrorist/evil regime is by a Grand Canyon wide margin more credible source for information than Donald Trump.
2. If one bet on the opposite of what Donald Trump said, they would win the bet 9 out of 10 times.
Meteorologist Donald Trump, forecasting the weather:
Re: Iran War 3/25/26+ (cont. from 3/8-25/26 thread)
By metmike - March 28, 2026, 10:55 p.m.
Iran fires on at least two ships near Oman after re-closing Strait of Hormuz — as Trump warns Tehran against ‘blackmail’
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Donald Trump, in recent days insists that this unjustifiable war was all about keeping Iran from getting nuclear weapons. This is another huge lie!!!!! This is the AUTHENTIC TRUTH.
By metmike - April 13, 2026, 1:48 a.m.
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Anyways, how much higher do you think that crude oil will open on Sunday Night? +$10???? This is still about news and of course the rich person's Ponzi Scheme, the stock market made new highs, which is more important to Donald Trump than everything else, will be interpreted by his diseased brain as him being on the exact right path!!! Very seriously!!!
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Re: 3-12-26 SPR oil/gas prices
By patrick - April 19, 2026, 11:35 a.m.
Nice Bloomberg piece yesterday about physical vs future price - bsky gift link at https://bsky.app/profile/70sbachchan.bsky.social/post/3mjs3ntll322f
Basic, but with detailed numbers
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Re: Re: 3-12-26 SPR oil/gas prices
By metmike - April 19, 2026, 12:05 p.m.
This is one of the most informative articles ever on crude here, patrick! !
When back on my computer, I’ll post an article that discusses the 6,000 items that are made with petroleum. Many of them are products that we use every day.
The cost of all of them will go up from the increase in crude oil.
With Over 6000 products and counting, petroleum continues to be a crucial requirement for all consumers.
https://www.ranken-energy.com/index.php/products-made-from-petroleum/
A U.S 42-gallon barrel of crude oil yields about 45 gallons of petroleum products in U.S. refineries because of refinery processing gain. This increase in volume is similar to what happens to popcorn when it is popped.
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3pm: An Iranian Cargo Ship trying to pass thru the US blockade(of Iran's ships) was attacked by the US Navy. There's another +$x to the open tonight. We have to open +$9 from the close for it to be a gap higher from the Friday because of the huge drop on Friday from the highs.
The high on Friday was $94.04? The last price was $85.57.
Every extra day with this war costs $x more billions of dollars to the US. Multiply that by all the countries around the world, impacting their economies.
Front month, May expires on Tuesday and this environment is favorable for a massive spike higher. Not a prediction, just the underlying conditions that make it very possible.
The amount of open interest left in May crude is very small, like 59K and liquidating fast(short squeeze??). Most traders will be trading the June contract this week, with 325K in open interest.
Looks like the higher open will NOT be close to a gap higher.
This graph below is updated daily without me doing anything.
Gas prices peaked last week!
https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts
This source doesn't always have prices graphed accurately but it's free and gives us a good understanding.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
1. 1 month
2. 1 year
3. 10 years:
