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Week 1 rains continue to go up and get closer!
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
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1. 4-18-26 This was the last 12z GEFS for the next 16 days. Heavier rains, 3+ inches focused on areas that need them the most and will take every drop and more! Huge area of 2+ inches(average to just above average).
2. 4-19-26: 18z GEFS. Bigger 3+ inch area.
3. 4-20-26: 6z GEFS. Heavy rain signal increasing at the end of 2 weeks for a huge area in drought, maybe tied to the rapidly advancing El Nino.
4. 4-20-26: 12z GEFS. 3 inch band expanding. 4 inch band now(16 days).
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1. 4-18-26: The last 12z European model below(15 days), with it's crummy colors for rain has a pretty wet signature for the Southern Mississippi River Valley, westward to TX. This rapidly dries up headed northward.
2. 4-19-26 The last 12z model for 15 days. A bit drier than yesterday.
3. 4-20-26 12z run. Large area of expanding heavy rain signal late in the period.
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This product is not updated until late PM and I might stop using it because it seems inconsistent.
1. This was the GEFS 35 day rain anomaly map from 4-17-26, not updated yet on Saturday. Let's hope this changes for the South which currently has some serious drought to start the growing season so crops don't have much soil moisture to tap into unless it falls from the sky.
2. Updated 4-18-26 map on the right. HUUUUGE increase in needed rain in the South. A forecast this far out doesn't have high skill but the magnitude of the wet shift is extremely impressive.
3. 4-19-25: Extremely dry in the Plains!!!! This solution doesn't make sense to me.
4. 4-20-26: This solution makes much more sense!
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1. The last 46 day European Ensemble model from 4-18-26 is below. It's in decent agreement with map #2 above from the GEFS today. Tomorrow, Sunday PM I'll put the update to the right.
2. 46 day rains 4-19-26. Pretty wet in the driest areas!
3. 4-20-26: Heavy rain signal GROWING!
1. This was the last EE 46 day temperature anomaly from the 4-18-26 run. The last GEFS was also coolish.
2 . 4-19-26 temps. Not much change. Coolish.
3. 4-20-26: Cool and wet El Nino Summer signature!
This goes out to the start of June and is bearish, although moderate heat before pollination with ample moisture is a good thing.
Soil moisture is especially dry in the southeast 1/3rd of the country/cotton country(up the East Coast), back thru the ENTIRE South to the Plains/Rockies!
A huge pattern change, looks promising to greatly increase rains in many of those!!! See the updated rain maps above.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
https://www.drought.gov/current-conditions
Drought eliminated some places but increasing in MORE places!
Thru April 16, 2026
DROUGHT MONITOR
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
Drought gone in the Midwest. Worse in the Plains, South and East.
Afternoon updates made