The previous thread was getting extremely long:
Grain Market
81 responses |
Started by cutworm - March 27, 2026, 9:20 a.m
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/119029/
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Comprehensive weather constantly updated. During the growing season, the weather determines the crop size(supply) and is usually the most important determinant for price:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
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Rain/Drought thread May 2026
Started by metmike - May 4, 2026, 9:44 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/120018/
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Rain/Drought thread June 2026
Started by metmike - June 1, 2026, 7:51 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/120593/
It appears seasonal highs were put in last week. Tested this week with today, Wednesday, a failure to go higher.
Longs could be worrisome.
I agree strongly with that tjc!
The very bullish news on Sunday was unable to generate enough buying to push C and S to new highs! In fact, they were unable to even test the old highs.
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By tjc - May 10, 2026, 7:46 p.m.
I was about to post: Why are grains not falling? This week will result in many acres getting planted albeit in cool soil, but plenty of moisture. This usually bearish, especially with generally warming temps. Cycle suggests maybe Monday-Wednesday strength, then decent "should" commence.
FYI---short beans, meal. oats
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By metmike - May 11, 2026, 1:16 a.m.
That seems reasonable to me, tjc!
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Speculators with record longs will be extremely vulnerable if we have favorable weather. Don't enter a long here without weather forecasts turning very bullish.
Bearish weather the next month+(if it happens) WILL cause C and S prices to drop hard at impossible to time periods and the record fund longs will be selling fuel that cause big spikes down.
The war in Iran is a wild card as is the oncoming SUPER El Nino. (and other things unknown at this point).
Speculators built record bullish bets across U.S. grains & oilseeds in the first week of May, anchored by massive net longs in corn and soybeans. But which of those positions looks more vulnerable right now? I break this down in my Sunday newsletter.
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The market will be mostly focusing on the size of the new crop. Horrible HRW ratings have been giving the HRW price a bullish lift. However, harvest pressure in June is tough to fight.
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By metmike - May 14, 2026, 7:18 p.m.
Matt was in with our bearish weather today:
May 14, 2026: NW Storms Recap | Active Severe Wx Stretch | Heavy Rains | Hurricane Analogs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ycxYT98mYE
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EACH YEAR IS DIFFERENT! Just like the weather can vary from severe drought(HRW crop this year) to perfect.
Wheat usually peaks first, after the crop comes out of dormancy, well before harvest. This is has been extremely contra seasonal because, instead of the crop being made, the crop is being wrecked by drought.
Corn often peaks in the current time until June after being planted in timely fashion in NON drought years.
https://charts.equityclock.com/corn-futures-c-seasonal-chart
Beans key developmental stage, flowering/pod fill is the latest, late July/August and typically peaks last.
However, the 3 of these often move in tandem, especially corn and beans that have very similar planting and growing seasons impacted by the exact same weather systems. If the weather is perfect from late May onward, for instance, corn will peak and beans will peak early but still hold more risk premium than corn.
https://charts.equityclock.com/soybeans-futures-s-seasonal-chart
It's still just May 14th. The weather forecast can change fast and there are alot of fringe acres that still have severe drought. If it turns dry, everything can make new highs even though the market is more vulnerable on the downside from the record fund longs that WILL cover enough to push prices sharply lower if we have favorable weather in the first half of the growing season...........even more if that weather continues into August, although Summer lows in early August are typical during record years, followed by a lower low ahead of harvest.
Each year is different!
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Grain Market
By metmike - May 18, 2026, 4:43 p.m.
U.S. winter wheat conditions slipped to 27% good/excellent, the date's lowest rating since 1989. Wheat rated poor/very poor rose 3 pts to 43%, the date's highest share in over a decade. Spring planting (corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton) continues at an above-average pace.
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metmike: 43% of the Winter wheat crop is poor/very poor, almost all of it HRW crop.
https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog2026.pdf
Trump announcing an agreement for China to buy billions in US ag products was the reason for the huge spike higher on the open Sunday Night, with the market holding ALL the gains.
US says China to buy billions in agricultural goods after Trump-Xi talks
China will buy ‘at least’ $17bn worth of US agricultural goods annually, the White House says.
The biggest risk right now is the Iran war.
The grains were on their lows, down moderately overnight, then just after 5am, Iran made a statement that they were keeping their enriched uranium which spiked crude +$3 in a few minutes and the C, W and S also followed, recovering most of the losses in a few minutes.(but still down right now).
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Note the 1 day graphs below.
Just after 5am, crude spiked +$3/barrel and July Soybeans spiked +9c/bushel in tandem. Corn and wheat followed exactly the same way.
By metmike - May 21, 2026, 9:22 a.m.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
1. Crude oil
2. Soybeans
3. corn
4. Wheat
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/soybeans
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/corn
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/wheat
The weather models have taken out some rain for the Midwest(less bearish/more bullish).
Eric was in this Memorial Day!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceQ2F9GDu3U
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Eric site offers some awesome weather stuff!
LOWER open.
OK, I tried to get that in just before the open but missed it being a call by 5 seconds.
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The reason is that crude is -$5. The price of crude has been directly impacting the price of grains during the entire war.
The weather, however has turned BULLISH.
I would have bought CZ on the open if not concerned about the uncertainty with funds having record longs and potentially covering some of that position if crude has topped and with seasonals turning negative in years without major adversity(weather maps suggest the potential for adversity).
We gapped lower in corn and wheat.
If the weather forecast does not change, we'll likely reverse higher at some point early this week.
Rain/Drought thread May 2026
Started by metmike - May 4, 2026, 9:44 p.m.
Corn has been the strongest here. Gapping lower and the Dec barely filling the gap.
This is the front month, July Corn, with the market stopping so far at the top of the DAILY gap.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/corn
1. 1 week corn. Opened with a gap lower, on the lows. Just about filled the gap.
2. 1 week July Beans. Opened on the highs, now on the lows.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/soybeans
2am: Grains are holding overnight and as mentioned the weather has turned BULLISH! If crude also continues to hold and/or reverses back up, look for the big reversal up I anticipate to be on Tuesday!
If crude drops, all bets are off and the weather can also turn less bullish overnight. This is not the time of year to be long without an adverse(bullish) weather forecast.
Additionally, price charts strongly suggest that we made a top earlier this month on record fund buying/longs. This set up often results in long liquidation by funds early in the growing season that can only be reversed with major adverse weather.
We do have the potential for adverse weather that could turn major. The first corn rating of the season should be out soon, maybe this afternoon???
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An additional item that I just read is that the HUGE purchases of AG products that Trump announced LAST weekend, which caused the big gaps higher on the Sunday Night open but could not challenge the highs from early May look sort of shaky. News related to that can also have an impact there.
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What can happen in a market like this is that when the funds come in, after the 8:30 am open, the market acts completely different than it did overnight. However, the overnight trade has seen HUUUGE volume! CN over 80,000 contracts. CZ over 40,000 contracts traded. Maybe the long weekend with some catching up?
Grains closed on a weak note, with several other negative factors offsetting BULLISH weather.
1. Trumps China export promise overstated
2. Lower crude oil price
3. Charts showing an early growing season top this month.
4. Record fund length which is liquidating.
5. Crop planting off to a great start
If the weather forecast does NOT change in the next week, I would be very surprised if the grains don't start getting bullish traction soon. The weather forecast does often change.
Rain/Drought thread May 2026
Started by metmike - May 4, 2026, 9:44 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/120018/
U.S. winter wheat conditions fell to 26% good/excellent as of Sunday, the date's worst rating in records back to 1986. Corn planting remains ahead of average despite landing at the low end of estimates this week. Soybean planting is no longer the date's fastest (83% in 2012).
metmike The crop is 44% in the P/VP category with almost all of that being the HRW crop!
Entire report below:
https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795918/prog2126.txt
It amazes me how we can get crop survey results a few hours after reports are turned in on Monday morning, but, we can't get a fund report for at least a week, we can't get an accurate acreage report from FSA data for months.
I hear you loud and clear, cutworm!
I'm not sure why some forms of data seem to be handled by genius's and other forms goof balls.
The most amazing example is how long it took for the USDA to get the You and I were on top of the bean crop getting decimated by the hot/dry 2024 growing season pod fill.
Crop ratings can sometime be deceptive during heat fill for corn and pod fill for beans because the plants might still look good on the outside but heat fill for corn, even with good rains can be severe. The cooler the temps, the longer it takes for maturation, the longer the time for the plants to fill kernels with plant energy.
Beans can have a great growing season, then get hit with a late August FLASH DROUGHT and lose 25% of their yield with B-Bs for seeds in side the pods instead of being plump from plant energy pumping in nutrients.
Anyways, it was crystal clear in September that the 2024 crop had been damaged by the hot/dry end to the growing season. CRYSTAL CLEAR!
The USDA had 2 different opportunities to adjust the crop size/yields lower, with the November 2024 report certainly being the one that should have NAILED IT.
When there wasn't much change, I was like "dang, guess I really missed this one!!!" I guess my understanding of the laws of agronomy must be really messed up!
Then in January, 2025 they blew everybody's mind with cuts that fell way outside anybodys predicted range. How can it take 4 months after the weather damage and 2 months after it was all harvested to dial in ALL the damage????
Something wasn't right with that!
By metmike - Jan. 10, 2025, noon
EXTREMELY BULLISH!!!!!!!!
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I have long contended that there is shady business going on at higher levels with some of these reports because of how many surprises we get. Not just surprises to traders but surprises to multi million dollar companies that invest huge sums of money to track the crop and come out with their estimates.
2 Yahoo's in Indiana shouldn't be smarter in September about the crop size (1 a producer, the other a meteorologist) than the USDA with all the data was in November!
Data is data and I can't believe these people are just incompetent.
Crude crashing overnight continued the pressure on the grains but the weather continues BULLISH. Today will likely be the day to reverse higher in beans and probably corn too(with new crop leading the way).
Added rains in HRW land also put some added pressure to wheat.
Rain/Drought thread May 2026
Started by metmike - May 4, 2026, 9:44 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/120018/
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This will be the best rain in months for the HRW crop! That's pressuring wheat prices(even though the SRW is down the most today) which is also pulling corn down but beans have had a good reversal up so far.
Crude sharply lower is a negative but weather should be the most important, most of the time for the next 3 months.
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
I'll have to add that when the crop is planted in timely fashion with decent soil moisture in the Midwest and funds are already overextended to the long side, average weather results in risk premium bleeding out as each day is marching closer to the crop being made. It often takes at least slightly bullish weather to just hold on to the risk premium.
To get big moves higher at this stage of the game, the mentality of the market needs to take on one that embraces a legit threat to the new crop growing in the ground. I can't always read the mind of the Composite Man(all the traders combined) but the weather forecast has well above average temperatures, especially the WCB and Upper Midwest and below average rains. That's bullish.
Wheat could do its own thing here too. We have the worst HRW in history with much of that well known and dialed in. However, we have a pretty good SRW crop and harvest is looming with preharvest, seasonal pressure typically significant here.
We didn't get the reversals today, outside of the November beans that did close higher. This is the one that I expected to lead.
The biggest weather problem for the bulls here is that rains are starting to return to the forecast late in week 2.
Regardless, we generated a potentially buliish candle stick in the beans today but the forecast needs to stay hot/dry to see follow thru the rest of this week:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/soybeans
1. 6 months: This chart plots daily prices with candlesticks. I didn't even know my source had it until I searched just now. Perfect to demonstrate today's action!!!!
Note the last candle is green with a small body, that indicates a higher close than the open with a drop to a lower price for this brief downtrend with a shadow(bottom) to new lows that recovered to get above the open.
These are the 3 candles that this looks most similar to below.
Am I picking these because I'm bullish and looking for evidence in the charts to confirm my bias?
YEP!
https://groww.in/blog/candlestick-patterns
The Morning Star is a three-candlestick pattern that converts downtrend to uptrend. It starts with a long bearish candle, followed by a small-bodied candle (either bullish or bearish) and ends with a long bullish candle.
What Morning Star Pattern Indicates: This pattern signifies a strong reversal signal, as it shows that the sellers are losing control and the buyers are taking over.
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Just to repeat, if the weather forecasts don't add more rains(like the last 12z European and Canadian models just did late in week 2) then this should get some follow thru to the upside.
Note: I am almost always early to weather pattern changes............and sometime WRONG but will always correct/change to being right based on objective analysis.
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Also: Corn closed on the lows and SRW wheat fell by double digits. Not a good sign for the bulls!!! This is an exercise in metmike looking for early technical signs/indicators that the market will start trading with the hot/dry weather ahead.
SN is +4c early in the Thursday trading session. C is still not reacting(yet). Not enough to confirm the bottoming formation candle on the previous page but following the right path so far.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/soybeans
1. This is the 1 day chart with tonight's open.
For what it's worth,
DEC Corn has fallen below and closed below the uptrend line.
Wheat has also fallen below the uptrend line last week.
Nov beans has so far stayed above the trend line.
Maybe wheat and then corn leading?
Very astute observation, cutworm.
I was actually looking at that. Dec corn, in 2026 had a mid Jan low, then a higher mid April low that defines that uptrend line that was violated this week, along with us being at new lows for the month of May here.
Still above that April low but not the sort of thing which is going to inspire funds to start buying again instead of liquidating. That's' why the only thing that can do it is enough hot/dry weather to create adversity and the market equating that to a smaller new crop.
However, the front month, July plotted below appears to be testing AND HOLDING that trend line that goes way back to MAJOR lows last August.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/corn
Beans are up 9c and corn 2c so I think we have the lows in!
9:30am: I should have added "if the extended weather stays dry and especially if it adds heat"
Another item I should have mentioned and just remembered. Besides long range forecasts having low skill, the rapid onset of El Nino is likely to have BEARISH implications to the forecast that the models can't incorporate into their solutions. Just from the historical El Nino anologs.
That doesn't rule out a "dome of death" scenario which can still happen from the impact to the atmosphere coming from the Atlantic side.
However, it messes up the speculative mentality of traders, especially big funds. You can get huge moves higher ahead of the growing season or the heating season based mostly on longer range forecasts that show extreme conditions.
For instance, if we had a La Nina (which is more favorable for hot/dry Summers) and this much drought, the market could feed on that and use it to sustain the speculative buying with a self fulfilling prophesy type move ahead of the important key time frames. Expectations of something happening causes people to act as if it will or did happen..........until it doesn't happen in real time.
In addition, traders knowing this tendency can cause a self fulfilling prophesy in that market.
What that means is that if the fundamental impact that caused that long lived seasonal goes away or is not present in a particular year, traders EXPECTATION of it can actually cause enough traders to trade that seasonal with positions in anticipation of the seasonal so that THEY CAUSE IT from their actions.
metmike: There's alot of self-fulfilling prophecy trading in the stock market because of decades of it going higher. Many people are not buying on fundamentals or intrinsic value considerations or even technical/charting. They buy because the stock market always goes up. Any corrections never last because the stock market will always make new highs. It's a matter of time before we hits those news highs. That mentality creates a self fulfilling prophesy. The reason the market goes up is because enough people think it will go up.
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With the rapid onset of El Nino, this is much more difficult to sustain in the grains right now ahead of the Summer, and funds already having a huge long position. That's my take at least to explain the lack of enthusiasm to the hotter and drier changes to the forecast so far this week.
Regardless, the REAL weather going out 2 weeks will have increasing impact and the market will be gyrating back and forth based on changes to that more important forecast.
The 0z GEFS forecast just after midnight seemed to indicate that when the grains spiked higher...........but gave up those gains 6 hours later with the next run being less bullish.
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Regardless of the gyrations up and down, the forecast is still bullish enough to put in the short term lows here! Again, if we don't keep adding rain chances in weakening the upper level ridge late in week 2.
Beans made the technical bottom formation on Wednesday's chart showed above/yesterday. Corn looks like it COULD do the same thing today.
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The NEW CROP beans and corn are leading the charge higher today which tells us the market IS concerned about how the weather will adversely impact new crop supply.
Urea price chart here: Urea - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News
Urea price discussion starts at 0:50 to 4:50
Global Fertilizer Prices Dip - Why is US Retail Still Sky-High??
I had no idea urea had dropped back down. Thanks a ton for pointing this out, cutworm!
From the producers perspective this area is still a high price and not necessarily the price they are getting at their local Ag-supply co-op.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/urea
1. 5 years: Ukraine war high in 2022. Huge gap higher on Monday, March 2, 2026 from the Iran War that was just filled.
2. 1 year: Same thing. This market doesn't have enough volume to show shorter time frames well is my guess. The gap is filled now but will previous highs/resistance act as support or will be continue to fall lower?
On these charts we filled to gap higher after the war in Iran started, so the upside breakaway gap is filled and it becomes an exhaustion gap now and goes from bullish to bearish. However, this market is impacted by NEWS from the Iran war.
Andrew made a rare, back up appearance today with our weather:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdz_Rm9-G4A
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My forecast has remained BULLISH for the grains since last weekend. The market has taken some time to embrace that but seems to finally be catching on (beans starting yesterday with follow thru today so far and corn catching on today-so far).
That doesn't mean that I'm right. Meteorologists are wrong XX% of the time for a living. This could be one of those times. The objective should never be being right with yesterday's forecast but to try to adjust a wrong forecast philosophy so that TOMORROW'S forecast is right.
High heat builds in the Midwest in early June!
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/temp_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png
Changes the last 24 hours, mainly overnight on the 0z EE model has me no longer a solid bull on the weather.
I'm still leaning that way and can get more bullish again but can't be bullish with rains increasing in both week 1 and week 2. The heat WILL BE THERE and that increases evaporation/drying so MORE rain is needed when you add heat. Right now, the heat is the most bullish part of the forecast.
With all the negatives mentioned previously in this thread, I don’t want to be long without the weather turning MORE bullish, not LESS bullish.
Rain/Drought thread May 2026
Started by metmike - May 4, 2026, 9:44 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/120018/
5-29-26: Rains returning to WCB (N.Plains) on the backside of the high.
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Last European Ensemble model:
5-29-26: HEAT dominates, HOWEVER, Midwest rains returning from the south. Wet South!!! Turning LESS bullish(more bearish)!
This is the type of weekend when the weather can change quickly in 2 days and result in a gap higher or lower on Sunday Nights open.
The most unusual aspect to the market right now is that beans are acting great, holding support and uptrend lines suggesting the bull is still alive but corn is failing and acting like the top is in.
The seasonal top does come earlier in corn, so that could be part of it. However, in tradable weather sensitive markets during the growing season, BOTH corn and beans move in tandem because the same weather, good or bad has a similar impact, simultaneously on both of them.
If I had to guess, a gap down looks a tad more likely based on bearish changes to the weather models the last 24 hours.
As a scholastic chess coach, I teach the kids that the most important move in the game at any,point in time is often “whatever your opponent did last”
Same principle with many things in life, including trading. Every day we should evaluate the market based on what you and everybody else knew yesterday as a starting point, THEN dial in NEW NEWS with the most amount of weighting is many cases.
Same with weather models. Since yesterday, those models were fed empirical data/observations that were fresher, which basically takes away all the errors in the initial 24 hours of yesterday’s forecast.
Modeling Errors grow with time. If you start with a big forecast error, the potential for that to grow exponentially is much higher.
This is why we use ensembles, which are dozens of solutions with different equations to represent the future atmosphere. Many of them will have errors from flawed equations.
Turns out that when you average them together, the solution gives a product that averages out the extremes and outliers.
It can also give you a range of potential outcomes.
Anyways, the European model often does best and it’s wetter today for every time frame into early July compared to yesterday.
The weather outlook did NOT change much over the weekend.
CZ had a tiny gap lower and filled it. With the grains opening on their lows and now close to their highs with just 37 minutes of trading under our belts.
I'll go without a bias here with the heat and upper level ridge(by some rains too) offsetting the negatives.
Eric was in with our awesome weather!
June 1, 2026: A Bit of Weather History | Jet Extensions and North American Ridging in June...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fhvaiOgvThY
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Crude +$7 not helping the grains much today! Maybe it's keeping them from falling?
Rain/Drought thread June 2026
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/120593/
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The most noteworthy change to me in the overnight guidance was the 0z European models breaking down of the upper level ridge at the end of the 2 week period as some strong northern stream energy digs into the Great Lakes and creates weak troughing that forces the upper level ridge to retrograde MUCH farther west and promising some cooler air to come:
In June with the funds liquidating from record longs and the crop marching 1 day closer to being made with the turn of the calendar page, the only chance to reverse that is with severe weather adversity from HOT and DRY. We had that threat last week which for a couple of days stopped the drop(helped beans to rally). Not this week.
Slight adversity will rarely do it.
HOT and WET isn't enough. COOL and DRY usually isn't enough. Especially in this age of a climate optimum with higher CO2 levels that act as atmospheric fertilizer AND makes most plants more water efficient and heat tolerant.
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Funds aggressively offloaded CBOT corn in the week ended May 26, as futures fell on good U.S. weather and Chinese demand concerns. Net long = 211k f&o contracts. The week marked funds' largest round (by far) of long liquidation since the March 2025 trade war-driven selloff.
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Through May 26, funds posted their largest weekly selloff in CBOT soybean oil in five months, yet positioning remains extremely bullish. Bean oil rallied 4.5% in the next three sessions, topping 78 c/lb for the first time since 2022. Most-active futures are up 60% in 2026.
Thinking that the first corn rating will be out this afternoon and may be decent (for C and S) based on the mostly favorable conditions in many places.
https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/crop-progress
Corn just 67% G/E
Beans just 66% G/E
Spring Wheat a crappy 47%!!!!
I guessed wrong and this is bullish, especially for Spring Wheat!
Winter wheat the same 26% G/E, 44% P/VP all the bad stuff is HRW. Worst crop ratings there since we've kept records.
I didn't think the nice rains in the Plains recently would help much because its too late. The HRW harvest has already started in the Southern States.
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U.S. corn and soybean health is below both analyst expectations and recent averages. Spring wheat ratings fell below all pre-report estimates. Corn and soybean planting is wrapping up, and winter wheat harvest has just begun.
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https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Crops_County/index.php#cr
Rain/Drought thread June 2026
Started by metmike - June 1, 2026, 7:51 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/120593/
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Next week should give us the first cotton rating in 2026.
Re: Rain/Drought thread June 2026
By metmike - June 1, 2026, 7:56 a.m.
I did some extra short term model updates because of the huge, cooler changes coming up in week 2.
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Grains opened higher on the worse than expected crop conditions but are now LOWER because of the BEARISH changes to the weather.
Good morning MarketForum
I have been following this grain thread for many weeks.
Based upon seasonals AND MetMike's early on call for favorable growing conditions (El Nino thread), I have been short. My farm community members may not like this, but 1100 beans, 400 corn, 550 wheat, 300 meal may not be low enough.
If, if rains pan out Friday/Saturday for the I states, this crop will be in very good shape.
Going to take severe heat to 'kill' this crop
Thanks very much, tjc and good for you on sticking with your short position thru the metmike, potential weather scare early last week!!!
I agree 100% on the case that we need MAJOR adversity in June to make C and S prices go higher when funds are liquidating record longs.
That being said, I still can't be outright bearish here ON WEATHER because there is still some potential for that MAJOR adversity to develop based on the 6-2-26 weather models and crops are not off to the best start.
Slight adversity in the weather forecast is usually not enough to save the grains in June when funds are liquidating record longs.
Trades were not all 'perfect'. Too early selling meal, got 'hurt' selling bean oil, but beans from 12.14 'nice'. Thought i did great making ten cents selling oats---that was 35 cents ago. Rice sale real nice.
Thanks, tjc!
I get it. After most trades, even good ones it's easy to see what we SHOULD have done to make it better.
1. Stayed in longer(exit point) let the trade ride
2. Better entry
3. More patience
4. Pulled the trigger on missed trades
5. Disciplined to follow our own system and ruled out emotions
6. Cut losses sooner on losing trades
You understand this better than anybody here so that was others, including a reminder to myself. The best part is that the markets will continue to trade forever and we should use experiences to LEARN things that get applied to the thousands of future opportunities and NOT
7. Get overconfident after several good trades or
8. Try to get back your money after losing trades
Start each day with a clear mind that isn't clouded from too much human bias and let the price action from Wyckoff's Composite Man allow you to couple your mind with that man NOT what YOU think. Then, use personal insights to identify when the Composite Man is overextended or when something has changed that will change his perception.
https://medium.com/@Blocksavant/composite-man-ca18c9d2d5a5
Before knowing if the price is too low or too high right now, you first need to understand all relevant items that the market is trading based on the mindset of all the traders.
As a meteorologist, I have ONLY traded weather markets because the Grains Composite Man cares most about powerful weather patterns in the growing season that determine the new crop supply. The Natural Gas Composite Man cares a great deal about temperatures in the residential heating and cooling seasons that determine residential demand for generating electricity from burning natural gas.
Time to place protective buy stops on SHORTS!!!
Will have covered all shorts by close Friday if not stopped out.
2 cents
Congrats, tjc!
All the updates were WETTER!
Re: Rain/Drought thread June 2026
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Rain/Drought thread June 2026
By metmike - June 4, 2026, 9:20 a.m.
On vacation but making updates here:
Rain/Drought thread June 2026
Started by metmike - June 1, 2026, 7:51 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/120593/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/120593/#120594
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June 8, 2026: Multi-Day Severe Storm Risk | Major Pattern Shift Next Wk | NEW TOOLS on agweather.com
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CoX1Kq1dzE
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From Eric's awesome presentation:
The heavy rains falling this week in the Cornbelt will restore soil moisture and also reduce the chance of intense heat in July, even though the models are predicting heat in the Plains to WCB!
Mike and WX
Believe it or not, it is getting a little 'soggy' here in LaSalle County, Illinois, with 50-70 percent chances of rain each day through Sunday, June 14.
The answer to the question, "Can it get 'too' wet" is yes; the better question is, "Are the forecasts sufficient to get the fields "too" wet"?
WSADE report on the 11th.
Crop report on 6-30. This is the one most likely to move the market.
Thanks, cutworm!
How's your crop doing so far this year?
U.S. corn conditions were unchanged from last week (but lower than expected). Soybean conditions declined 1 pt despite an expected improvement, but spring wheat conditions surged 5 pts, above analyst predictions. Winter wheat conditions fell below all expectations.
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Main links for the complete data:
https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/crop-progress
https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795933/prog2326.txt
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Last week's U.S. corn export inspections beat market expectations, and 27% of the volume was to Mexico. 47% of the week's soybean cargoes were destined for China. 2026/27 is underway for wheat, and inspections after four days are up 7% from a year ago.
We started planting on 4-9. Finished 5-15, very early. We were Dry early and that made the corn germinate uneven, this can lower final yields. Then it started raining about 4-25 which we needed some, But... we got more than 6 inches in 9 days. Corn sat in saturated and cold ground but is starting to come out of it. Probably lost some Nitrogen due to denitrification.
Had some beans planted in May that took more than 16 days to emerge due to cold and wet ground.
Some who did not start as early as I did just finished planting 6-5.
I say in my backyard the crops look worse than last year, but that could change.
Been very busy with applying Nitrogen, and herbicides
Thanks, cutworm!
This years crop overall is also not quite as good as last year's for the same ratings week.
tjc,
With only this much rain fallen so far, we are still in a rain makes grain mentality for a long time yet.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/maps.php?ds=stageiv&p=stageiv_qpe_168h_p&r=conus
Updated maps below with the forecast.
Last 24 hours
Last 72 hours
Last 7 days:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
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6-10 at 6am: The pattern has changed to LESS progressive with MUCH more rain forecast in week 1 in the Central Cornbelt NOT making it to the ECB and no new systems in the far WCB/N.Plains but most importantly, a MAJOR heat ridge building in during the week 2 period turning it HOT/DRY across much of the belt towards the end of week 2, that was still in week 3 yesterday. This evolves into a ring of fire pattern with perturbations around the periphery of the heat ridge with HEAT replacing the cooler temps.
These are the 24 hour changes from the European model below. This is the last EE model in week 2 with the ridge location at the end of the period.
Even with the heavy rains in a few spots recently, soil moisture is not anywhere close to reaching a concern for the market in the month of June, when rain makes grain unless it's 1993 type rains.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Matt was in with our weather!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slJSuHKZiME
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June 12, 2026: Not Done Yet - More Severe Storms | Watching Sub-tropical Ridge Placement Late June
Delayed report:
Very little changes to U.S. balance sheets from USDA on Thursday. Old-crop corn exports went up a little, corn for ethanol down. Old-crop soybean exports were cut, crush was up.
USDA boosts Argentina's 2025/26 corn crop, which the market anticipated. However, the 3 mmt increase to Brazil's corn was well above expectations. Argentina's soybean crop also rose above expectations.
USDA's estimate of 2026/27 world corn stocks came in above expectations, and old-crop corn stocks surged by 6.4 mmt on stronger South American harvests. Changes were comparably quiet in soybeans and wheat.
Karen BrThe 2026 U.S. wheat harvest is now expected to be the smallest since 1970. USDA's production estimate slid further in Thursday's update, including a 0.8 bpa cut in winter wheat yield. The new yield of 46.8 bpa would be an 11-year low.
