Below average because of the El Nino!
More on Friday.
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-below-normal-2026-atlantic-hurricane-season
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It's mostly based on the rapidly developing El Nino which increases the chance for downstream wind sheer aloft that tears apart tropical systems which thrive on low speed upper level winds that allow the lower level developmental processes to be less hindered as they rise to higher levels. (for the ocean, lower level and upper level to stay more coupled as opposed to the upper level connection being ripped apart from a jet stream).
In the Mid Latitudes, jet streams ENHANCE LIFT which makes weather systems even stronger as they get their energy from temperature and pressure gradients(and the Coriolis force/spin of the earth).
In the tropics, hurricanes act as massive, natural heat engines that convert thermal energy from warm ocean waters into the mechanical energy of wind. They are fueled by a continuous cycle of evaporation, condensation, and pressure. Strong upper level winds disrupt this.
