Greetings
In a prior post I suggested it was getting 'too wet'. Since then there has been another 2-5 inches in 3-5 days in north central Illinois. Conversations with my tenant, with cautionary demand for 'truth' not farmer BS, strongly suggests :
1. Now too wet. Probably too late and will be too wet to replant the ponds and corners.
2. Most farms will have 3-8% crop loss due to ponds.
3. Yields WILL be negatively affected by adverse wetness.
I surmise grains open HIGHER off this weekend rain, not lower. THE 'TOP" is definitely off yields. Below trend line yields? Tenant says yes (especially on land not mine.--haha)
Technicals, next post
Corn Technicals
Corn may have posted a daily/weekly low on Friday, June 12, 28 days from last daily low and in its 21st week, both the daily and weekly in 'normal' time frames. Daily RSI bottomed at 27, weekly at 39; both in "buy" territory. Corn has fallen 70 cents +/- in 3 weeks (drought to saturated), and now appears to be way over sold.
Note: July corn made new contract low Friday, 3.085, but managed to close plus 1 cent on the day; a small (significant?) reversal.
At a minimum, Corn deserves a bounce.
BEANS
Beans appear to have put in a daily and weekly low on Thursday, June 11at a price of 1108.5. This low was (late) in the daily cycle on the 35th day a little past norm, but acceptable, and in the 23rd week, again past norm, but acceptable range. RSI levels dropped to 29 (tuesday) and 47 on weekly. Beans lost $1.20 in 4 week decline.
Beans closed the week negatively, but off the low at 1113.5
Buy beans---you know where you are wrong.
Thanks, tjc.
Nice post except that you are suffering from severe backyarditis. Just look at the soil moisture charts below. They tell a completely different story. Yes, there are some key areas that are now too wet and will have yield loss but in the big picture, they are a low % and not historically extreme.
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
https://www.pivotalweather.com/maps.php?ds=stageiv&p=stageiv_qpe_168h_p&r=conus
Last 7 days: Snapshot:
Constant update below:
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1. Your trade is well defined with an excellent risk limiting parameter. I contend that the best chance of going higher is if the huge heat ridge builds in during July, although what could also happen is related to your thoughts but with lower chance of impacting the Composite Man that trades rain makes grain in July.
2. If the Midwest is on the periphery of the dome, a ring of fire pattern could set up that features perturbations tracking around the periphery of the heat ridge/dome that cause repeated, very heavy rain events over the same areas which would EXPAND the limited areas that are you are concerned about right now.
Potential outcome #1 ALWAYS makes the grains go up in July.
Potential outcome #2 rarely does and only when actual events are unfolding because this is NOT a 1993 extremely wet Summer type weather pattern. It's a dome in the S. Plains with heavy rains around the periphery July pattern that features PROGRESSIVE weather systems with many dry days in between and NOT a Bermuda High along the East Coast that BLOCKS the pattern and flow and causes relentless rains from a trough in the Midwest with 1993 the most extreme example. This is the complete inverse of that pattern with a trough along the East Coast guaranteeing progression and northwest flow in the Midwest over the top of the heat ridge.
Northwest flow is capable of creating heavy rains but most Summers will northwest flow also produce abundant sunshine to maximize photosynthesis that powers crop growth/yields and minimize heat in between the widely spaced heavy rain events.
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I'm pretty sure that the bounce off the lows last week was related to the persistent Dome of Death heat ridge on the extended European model moving in during July staying there because of the hot and dry adversity.
I base that objectively on following all the rain events all day long, soil moisture and every important weather model along with observing the markets reaction.
Rain/Drought thread June 2026
Started by metmike - June 1, 2026, 7:51 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/120593/
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We'll be getting the latest crop condition report tomorrow afternoon which will give us an updated snapshot picture of the ENTIRE crop which has not been great so far this year. Some places have been too dry, which makes it even harder for the Composite Man to fret about more rain in the forecast when that rain will definitely benefit those dry areas.
This was the last European model forecast, updated this morning for the month of July.
I can tell you with absolute certainty, that if the market stays higher this week and puts in a low, it will not be from worrying about too much rain in your big backyard that has high production.
That very heavy rain is well known now. As Joe K used to say: they don't call it pastures, they call it futures for a reason.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/120593/
June 10: Heat ridge builds to a rain suppressing dome. VERY BULLISH!
June 11: Continued BULLISH!
June 12: STILL BULLISH, especially Plains to WCB. July is a key month but is far enough out to change.
June 13 Still Bullish, especially Plains to WCB. Major heat ridge Plains.
June 14: Still BULLISH from intense heat and dry in the Plains/WCB.
