There is no doubt that investors who left their money in the stock market have made a killing over the past 100 years by just using a "trend is your friend" mentality.
There is a large group of people, led by brokers and fund/money managers that insist that we should never try to time our investments or the market.
Just use their impressive results and those of the markets, especially when the market accelerates higher as evidence that we can be confident in their skill and that the markets will continue to go up.
Just look at the long term trends charts. Just look at the past X or XX number of years. Don't try to time investments. Don't worry during corrections because the market will always recover.
This is actually NOT true all the time.
There have been 3 very noteworthy periods during my lifetime when that was absolutely NOT true.
1. During the decade of the 1970's.
2. After the dot.com bubble burst in the late 1990's.
3. Potentially right now.
I'll discuss all 3 periods here.
How could investors possibly lose money being long in a market like this???
How could anybody putting money in now lose money, as long as they just keep it in the stock market that always has corrections but ALWAYS makes new highs.
https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart
Instead of buying low and selling high being the theme for success of us short term (commodities) traders, the theme is buy high and never sell until retirement, then sell higher.
Looking at the chart above, that has ALWAYS worked for people with money in the market for more than 15 years.
Forget the Great Depression which was almost a century ago.
There were 2 periods that lasted a decade+ when many to most investors DID lose money if they picked THE WRONG TIMING, however. They lost money, not just when the value of the stock market went down but also when it stayed close to unchanged.
They lost money from paying commissions/fees to brokers and money managers. They lost money from the value of their money dropping because of inflation.
The current situation is similar and also different to the environment just before those 2 decade long periods of stocks causing a negative overall return for many investors.
Let's review them.
1. The late 1960's thru the early 1980's.
2. The decade+ after the end of the 1990's.
The 1970's featured a bad economy with stagflation. Low growth and high inflation. Let's assume that the war in Iran is over and things will get better even though there is tremendous uncertainty here because the 2 entities making the decisions, Donald Trump and Iran are the least reliable on the planet.
It will take well into 2027 to restore the global oil market supplies/storage, that includes drawing down the SPR's of every country that need to be restocked, so its unlikely that oil prices can get back to where they were to start this year for a long time, despite the recent plunge. Donald Trump's illegal economy killing/inflation causing tariffs are also likely to go away too later this year.
The 1970's featured the OPEC oil price shock that lasted for many years, however and it helped cause SUSTAINED high inflation. This was the worst enemy of the stock market with the inverse relationship unmistakable for rock solid, fundamental reasons.High interest rates offered by other investments, like bonds that compete with stocks also helped suppress the stock market.
Cheap, reliable energy prices are the lifeblood for every developed county's economy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1970s_energy_crisis
I'm actually making the case that 2026 onward from this point will probably NOT be like the 1970s with the crude oil and probably not the economy. The recent agreement between Donald Trump and Iran tells us so.
However, what is as close of a match right now as we can find in our 250 year history is this:
From the start of 1973 through Nixon's resignation in August 1974, the S&P 500 fell about 50%.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-stock-market-watergate-133736317.html
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Anybody that doesn't acknowledge what is extremely likely to happen after the November 2026 elections is in denial and the consequences could be extremely profound for our country and the stock market.
1. The Ds are very likely to take over the majority in the House. Maybe not the Senate but maybe even there too. Regardless, the new D majority will immediately start the impeachment investigation of Donald Trump. Near 100% of that if they have a majority. Near 100% that they will vote to impeach Donald Trump. Impeachment by the House ONLY has no teeth as we witnessed in the complete nonsense, political impeachment for a phone call to Zelensky in 2018, trying to dig up dirt on the corrupt Biden family's abuse of Joe's position in Ukraine.
This WILL BE PROFOUNDLY different. There are many dozens of blatantly corrupt and impeachable offenses committed by Donald Trump in his 2nd term. This last one, committing treason against the United States by following the leader of a foreign country is the latest and the biggest. Causing the worst global energy crisis in history. No allies support. Throwing our National Intelligence Agency and others under the bus. 50 billion from tax payers. Gas prices +$1.50 to get............NOTHING. In fact to go backwards! Giving Iran their wish list to get the Strait of Hormuz open again(something we had before). With this agreement, another betrayal of America's long term interests and our brave soldiers that gave up so much for his illegal, unjustified, unprovoked war of choice.
Make no mistake, the impeachment investigation will bring all this out and the news media will make it headline news all day long, every day. There will be little question in the minds of non MAGA Americans that the investigation proved indisputably that Donald Trump is unqualified to remain in office from just this.
Donald Trump has committed blatant treason!!!!
Started by metmike - May 13, 2026, 8:16 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/120200/
So the investigation will not have a problem uncovering the POWERFUL, LEGIT evidence that more than makes their case for Donald Trump to be impeached. Most Americans will be FOR the impeachment and removal from office. The 1 thing missing to finish Donald Trump off is that the Senate requires a 2/3rds majority to impeach AND REMOVE the president from office.
They will NOT be able to do that without XX number of Rs in the Senate voting to impeach Donald Trump. (Fetterman is a fake D and will always vote R).
However, since Donald Trump has wrecked the R party. There is actually a good chance that they finally see this perfect opportunity to finally free themselves and the party forever! To never have to fear him again because he will be gone forever and the R party can begin healing.
Impeaching Donald Trump would actually be a gift to the Rs if they hope to win the White House in 2028 with President Vance leading the last year in the White House without the constant insane bombastic lies, wrecking the country and wrecking the world that are causing support for the Rs to bail BECAUSE OF Donald Trump.
This analysis has nothing to do with my personal feelings about Donald Trump. I want people to think about how this will influence the stock market using authentic facts that are political.
I feel strongly that if they got rid of Donald Trump early enough, the R party would see a big recovery, the country would benefit, our country‘s reputation would start to recover and a Vance/Rubio ticket in 2028 would WIN.
Not doing that, turns whoever runs on the D ticket into a NOT Donald Trump candidate which WILL WIN it for them in the next presidential election.
NOT Hillary Clinton won in 2016.
NOT Donald Trump won in 2020.
NOT Joe Biden/Harris won in 2024.
NOT Donald Trump/Vance will win in 2028 unless the Rs get rid of Donald Trump fast!!!
I think the difference between a President Vance's leadership in 2027/28 compared to Donald Trump would make him look even better!!! All the Galactic negatives............GONE forever. All the Rs need to do is for XX R's in the Senate to vote to impeach Donald Trump after the House does it.
Regardless of whether Donald Trump(the president of the stock market) survives or not, the battle going on will be brutal to the stock market at times! That a battle will take place is not debatable.
Also, after the Ds get control of the House they will be empowered to stop some of Donald Trump's agenda. Not good for the president of the stock market.
Much more to come:
Most of us older folks will remember the Iran Hostage crisis that likely played a role in President Carter getting crushed so badly by Ronald Reagan. Of course, high oil/gas prices, inflation and high interest rates were deadly too.
Here's a review:
Iran hostage crisis
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_hostage_crisis
The stock market still did not recover early in Reagan's first term.
The other REALLY bad time to invest in the stock market during my life time was towards the end of the dot.com bubble. The decade+ market period after that, if you entered then resulted in a LOSS of equity compared to your entry.
There were good years that recovered "some of your losses" (then the 2008/9 crash) but the overall return for stock market investors who entered in 1999 (late in the spike up bubble caused by over-exuberance of dot.com money) didn't get back above break even until the early 2010's. And that doesn't consider the various fees that fund managers get, even when their investors lose money.
Of course the tech heavy NASDAQ took the longest to recover:
Thu 23 Apr 2015
This article is more than 11 years old
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/apr/23/nasdaq-new-record-high-dotcom-bubble
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While this is intentionally the most extreme example and the current AI over exuberance is nowhere near that of the dot.com bubble, it shows that there are in fact really bad times to put in large sums of NEW money.
If you are adding to a large long term position or investing small amounts over time(like a retirement account) that averages and spreads out your entry price or building a position, the mentality is completely different than taking $200,000 of not invested money all at once during one of the least favorable, grossly overbought and overvalued times in history. This is extraordinarily risky with a risk reward right now greatly exceeding the VAST majority of stock market risk/reward assessment ps during my lifetime.
The worst thing that people can do is make the investment based on emotions. Watching the money sit for several years, while the stock market has huge returns that you miss out on, then FINALLY pulling the trigger at the exact worst time.
The stock market is extremely over bought right now. The stock market is extremely over valued right now. The impeachment of the stock market‘s most important person is inevitable. The magnitude of that impact will depend on whether the Senate follows up to the House and impeaches and removes Donald Trump.
If no, then the damage to the stock market will be less but with the king of the stock market clearly being a lame duck.
If yes, then the downside plunge will be significant. Over-leveraged positions will be forced to liquidate from margin calls. Everybody bailing at the same time with no bids under the market are the recipe for huge XX% losses.
Make no mistake. Impeaching and removing the KING of the stock market will cause historic losses to the stock market…….IF that happens.
If there was just a 10% chance of that happening, it’s worth waiting to invest your money until after that risk passes.
I believe the chance is greater than 50% that Donald Trump will be removed from Office!!!
Why is the current market overvalued?
One thing is that no markets keep going up with just minor corrections that are impossible to time. I just gave you 2 time frames that qualify as more than just the minor corrections. Where entering at the wrong time took you over a decade to get back to break even.
When we go back to analyze why stocks did so badly, it's easy to analyze and understand in the rear view mirror.
What makes it tough is to astutely see the powerful signs BEFORE it happens with accuracy.
There have been stock market guru's predicting a bear market or market crash for 10 years (not me) and all of them have been wrong and all of them lost out on doubling or tripling their money by not being invested.
What makes this time unique?
Please keep in mind that I'm NOT predicting a stock market crash, even though the odds are elevated for the next 2+ years.
Let me explain exactly why the current market risk is the highest that its been in decades.
1. Donald Trump is the president of the stock market. 90% of the money flows recently are coming from wealthy people that have turned the stock market into an over valued Ponzi Scheme. It doesn't matter how negative the news is, the stock market keeps going higher. Gasoline prices up $1.50 at any other time in history would have caused major damage to the stock market. In 2026, however, it caused...........new record highs (after a small drop/correction immediately after the war started) because the stock market has become detached for the realities.
The stock market has become a self-fulfilling prophesy!
An expectation that can affect a person’s behavior in a way that leads to those expectations being validated
A self-fulfilling prophecy is an expectation – positive or negative – about something or someone that can affect a person’s behavior in a way that leads those expectations to become a reality. For example, if investors think the stock market will crash, they will buy fewer stocks, prices will start to decline, and the market will actually crash.
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In the stock market
The Pavlovian Trap Behind Every Market Rally
https://www.investing.com/analysis/the-pavlovian-trap-behind-every-market-rally-200669522
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I contend that these 2 profoundly powerful psychological impacts explain the current rich person's Ponzi Scheme. The stock market keeps soaring to new highs on massive over valuations, negative economic and other news that should be making it go lower(and eventually will).
Everybody knows that the stock market and rich people are Donald Trump's top priority. 90% of the new money flows is coming from this sector. THEY KNOW IT and THEY KNOW that as long as this dynamic exists(with Donald Trump having their backs), they can ignore everything else and just positively reinforce each other's investments by continuing to add more and more money to a realm that they can control with this behavior.
2. The stock market has become historically over bought and over valued. At levels that have never held in the past fro long and with the right trigger have caused corrections that take a decade to recover from. I am not predicting an inevitable crash in X months. That's impossible. Just identifying the clear fundamentals, some psychological that are the recipe for a huge drop and make buying now extremely risky. Totally based on rock solid/authentic facts that define valuation of stocks, trading psychology and President Trump's impact.
Here's the (over) valuation part of it on the next page!
Most people know what P/E ratios are.
Please read this wonderful article. Even if you don't agree, you have to agree that this is possible. With that being the case, the P/E10 ratio has only been higher than this 1 time in history. When we spiked up with the dot.com bubble.
This article examines market valuation using two key metrics: the Trailing Twelve-Months (TTM) Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio and the P/E10 ratio. While the TTM P/E is a standard method, it has significant flaws. The P/E10, a more reliable metric, provides a clearer picture of long-term valuation trends. As of May 2026, the TTM P/E ratio is 25.9 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 39.9, the highest level since 2000.
Yale professor and Nobel laureate Robert Shiller, the author of Irrational Exuberance, has popularized the concept to a wider audience of investors and has selected the 10-year average of "real" (inflation-adjusted) earnings as the denominator. Shiller refers to this ratio as the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio, abbreviated as CAPE, or the more precise P/E10, which is our preferred abbreviation.
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Graphs/charts are always worth more than words.
We should keep in mind that anybody with money in the stock market is biased. They want stocks to rise to make money on their investments and interpret information with that hope in mind.
Advisors and money managers that invest people's money are extraordinarily biased. They make a living off of people giving them money to invest. Even when they lose people's money...........they make money.
None of them ever refuse to take money because they don't want to lose that money.
After the last decade+ of the biggest returns in history, they can site their performance over that period as evidence of how good they are. Some of them probably are pretty good at what they do but none of them will stop taking money or take all their money out of the market for the reasons that I show.
Is a professional football player bullish on football? It's what they do. Money managers manage money for a living. They may be more bullish at times and they are not all the same but they are NOT sounding the alarm to warn current investors because it would be shooting themselves in the foot.
I'm not saying the stock market will not go even higher and am not trying to predict the exact top, however I do predict tops and bottoms of markets for a living and am just saying that several indicators are screaming a warning message that a top in the stock market is likely based on the current dynamics and history.
And that’s even if Donald Trump is not removed from office.
I'm not a perma bear and in fact, picked the exact stock market , SHORT TERM bottom in early April after the brief Iran war correction down. Also predicted the top earlier based on the rounding top formation.
Re: Re: Re: Re: the nasdaq (and others too) just about there
By metmike - April 5, 2026, 7:08 p.m.
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The entire point is that making a NEW, large investment in the stock market right now is a bad idea because of the very high risks, particularly revolving around Donald Trump because those are huge and unprecedented.
The risk/reward ratio, outside of late 1999 has never been higher!
So what is a near risk free alternative?
I've traded commodities for a living the past 3+ decades and that's where I put my money, none of it is in the stock market right now, so I'm not claiming to be an expert on all the possible investment opportunities. Just doing a detailed, comprehensive analysis of the current stock market and inherent risks at this point in time.
However, this seems like a safe choice that at least beats inflation with no risk and the yields for 2 year government bonds (a time frame to get past the Trump removal risk to the stock market) are almost as high as the yields for 30 years bonds.
Fixed Income & Bond Yields
https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FIYieldTable?popupMode=Y&yldTabSelected=H