Warming U.S. climate linked to rising deaths from heat

 Severe cold remains a leading mortality risk, but heat-related deaths surged more than 50% since 2000

https://ysph.yale.edu/news-article/warming-us-climate-linked-to-rising-deaths-from-heat/

In a new study, YSPH researchers found that while cold weather continues to be a leading contributor to U.S. deaths annually, deaths linked to heat exposure surged more than 50% over the past two decades. Cold-related deaths rose from about 44,000 between 2000 and 2009 to more than 47,500 between 2010 and 2020, a 7% increase. Meanwhile, deaths associated with high temperatures climbed by 53%, from an annual average of 2,670 between 2000 and 2009 to more than 4,000 between 2010 and 2020.

“These findings underscore that extreme temperatures are significant threats to human health,” said Dr. Kai Chen, PhD, senior author of the study and associate professor of epidemiology (environmental health sciences) at YSPH. “Cold remains a dominant risk, yet heat is becoming increasingly dangerous as extreme heat events grow more frequent and intense.”

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OK, let's introduce authentic science and honest facts to bust some of this.

1. 47,400 died from cold but only 4,000 died from heat. So more than 12 times as many people died from cold!

2. How do cold deaths go UP on a warming planet, that features the Winters warming the most???? It happens when they ADJUST THE CRITERIA. Note on the previous page, almost all the heat deaths in Europe are not from exposure to the heat but because they included people swimming that drowned during the heat wave. Drowning deaths will soar higher because of the heat wave but only 2 children died so far from heat exhaustion and parental neglect.

3. Is this intentional? You bet it is!!!!

Here's an inconvenient truth:

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The Lancet on Climate Change: The need for context  

Indur M. Goklany

https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2020/05/LancetCountdown-1.pdf

metmike: This graph shows us data from this extensive study. Climate related deaths and non climate related deaths from 1990 to 2017. There are 2 main things to note:

1. Climate related deaths are a small fraction of non climate related deaths.

2. Climate related deaths have dropped 50% over the last 3 decades.

If you also dial in the massive increase in food from atmospheric fertilization from beneficial CO2 and the continuation of the slow beneficial warming on this greening planet, you clearly have a climate OPTIMUM not a crisis.

This is the empirical data that defines the authentic science. Anybody that says something different is either ignorant of the authentic science or deceiving  ......that includes any brilliant scientists with numerous degrees.

Let's actually look at this extreme WEATHER ANOMALY in perspective and use meteorologist/science to explain it.

This was the latest map for the Northern Hemisphere from the last 0z GEFS model run. 

1. 850 mb temp anomalies.

2. 850 mb temp standard deviation.

We should note that planet earth is dominated by much larger areas of above average(hot) and below average (cool) than it is average.  Just like it is in any one place, the temperature is RARELY AT THE AVERAGE in any place or region.

Most of the time, it's either above or below(sometimes extreme) and when we divide that total by 2, we get an average that does NOT represent the actual weather patterns.

Sometimes that features extremes which are totally expected and have always happened. When extreme cold waves hit in the Winter, they will be brutal. When extreme heat waves hit in the Summer, they will be brutal.

How much hotter are heat waves in the Summer because of global warming?  Likely 1 to 2 degrees hotter by more than that in the coldest/driest places because the radiation absorption bands for CO2 overlap with the radiation bands for H2O. 

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It really boils down to this, once again(Cliff Mass can be counted on as an elite source for using objective, authentic science)

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-golden-rule-of-climate-extremes.html

The GoldenRule

 Considering the substantial confusion in the media about this critical issue, let me provide the GOLDENRULE OF CLIMATE EXTREMES. Here it is:

The more extreme a climate or weather record is, the greater the contribution of natural variability.

Or to put it a different way, the larger or more unusual an extreme, the higher proportion of the extreme is due to natural variability.   

Turns out that warm, humid places, with tons of H2O have caused many of the CO2 radiation bands to be saturated already and adding more CO2 can't warm those places much. 

However, the vast, VAST majority of people, including some climate scientists don't  COMMUNICATE accurately what is really going on with the actual warming.

The pattern below shows that its the very high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere that are being warmed the most by a wide margin. (the coldest places in the coldest times of year).

This is what the temperature changes/anomalies look like from global warming the past 140 years. Highest latitudes warming the most because the cold, DRY air doesn't have much H2O to saturate the radiation absorption bands compared to the warm, humid areas, where those absorption bands are nearly saturated from H2O which overlaps with the CO2 absorption bands.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haBG2IIbwbA

A huge part of this is:

1. The Southern Hemisphere is more water/ocean that takes longer to warm than land.

2. There are MANY more high population centers that are causing heat islands  that are releasing "waste heat"  in the mid latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. 

3. Now the big one. Many of the radiation absorption bands for CO2 OVERLAP with H2O. H2O is 95% of the planet's greenhouse gas effect(we would be a frozen wasteland without the BENEFICIAL greenhouse effect).  Turns out that in areas with higher dew points, those overlapping absorption bands ARE ALREADY SATURATED by H2O!! In those cases and in those bands, it doesn't matter how much CO2 that you add. When they are already absorbing 100% of the long wave, heat radiation of what they are capable of because of water vapor/H2O, adding CO2 in those bands will have near 0 impact.

4. Now the kicker. Cold places lack water vapor in the dry air so CO2 will be impacting bands that are NOT saturated from H2O absorbing. We can see that on the graph above. However, DESERTS also lack water vapor, so they too are seeing a greater impact from CO2 than the rest of the planet at the same latitude. Even DESERTS located in already hot places, like Phoenix.

5. Turns out that DESERTS are warming at a similar, elevated rated to the Arctic.

6. The impact of increasing CO2 on temperature is also LOGARITHMIC. The more that you add, the less the impact.

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Why the Forcing from Carbon Dioxide Scales as the Logarithm of Its Concentration

https://romps.berkeley.edu/papers/pubdata/2020/logarithmic/20logarithmic.pdf

The radiation absorption bands of CO2 are almost saturated in the warm/humid areas of the planet because they overlap with the H2O absorption bands. This is why the warming has mostly been in the higher latitudes(and DESERTS).

File:Longwave Absorption Coefficients of H2O and CO2.svg

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Longwave_Absorption_Coefficients_of_H2O_and_CO2.svg

This was a post of mine, commenting on the incredible, historical March heat wave in the southwest US:

So we are dealing with the same planet, same atmosphere, same weather systems, same laws of physics  but with X amount of warming superimposed on it.

This is what that means.

1. Weather is still dominated by natural variability and this particular extreme would have happened with the old climate 100 years ago.

2. However, the planet IS warmer almost everywhere at variable rates. Some places, like  in the US Cornbelt during the growing season the high temperature records have dropped because of the extremely high water vapor added by tightly packed rows of corn. This is an exception but CO2 warming is minimal at those times with really high dew points. Photosynthesis also,converts photons of  powerful short wave radiation and kinetic enrgy(heat) into stored, potential chemical energy in the plants, as well as sequestering  carbon that it extracts out of the CO2, releasing O2 as a waste product. It’s a miracle of nature and why CO2 is a massive beneficial gas to double the current amount which would be the OPTIMAL level for most life on this rapidly greening planet.

3. Deserts are seeing the complete opposite from having extremely LOW water vapor. Add that to the fact that dry air heats faster than moist air and we may be seeing as much or even more heating in the deserts as we have in the Arctic at certain times.

4. This current extreme weather pattern was NOT caused by climate change/global warming. However climate change  with 100% confidence contributed to a good part of the extreme magnitude of the record highs. This is indisputable using the laws of atmospheric physics with the higher CO2 in this very dry location.

ADDED: 5. We can use authentic, empirical data below to estimate with confidence how much hotter it is with this current heat wave in this location(because of the greatly amplified greenhouse gas effect in the bone dry air) by looking at the graph below. THIS AUTHENTIC SCIENCE!  Looking at the graph for March and the actual trendline going from ~73 to ~79, I feel confident in stating that we are 6 Deg. F hotter than 100+ years ago at this location. Granted, we were recovering from the natural Little Ice Age and there has been some local heat island effect adding to the greenhouse effect but the VAST, VAST majority is from the increase of CO2 in this very dry air. So attributing 5 deg. F of this heat wave to the added CO2 should be a very liberal assessment to assign ALL the impact from the added CO2.

6. The rest of the planet is heating up at less than half this rate and the majority of the heating is during the cold weather seasons when the AIR IS DRY. Warm, humid times of year are NOT seeing as much heating. Mainstream science, instead of telling us that and explaining the authentic science, uses this heat wave as an example to apply to the entire planet.

7. We know how biased they are in doing this, not just from the lack of explaining the authentic science of very dry(cold) air having greatly amplified heating which could just be ignorance but they intentionally leave out the massive benefits CO2 which is greening up the planet, the complete opposite of killing it with a FAKE climate crisis. This would be like reporting on the use of automobiles since they replaced horses 150 years ago by only telling us about how many people get killed in car accidents every year and leaving out ALL the benefits that automobiles have gifted the human race with the past century+. Automobiles should be banned because they kill 40,000 people every year!!!

https://resilience.asu.edu/temperature

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide#See_also

Optimal level for life is 900 parts per million. Current level is 430 parts per million.

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water

Optimal for life but using the junk science climate crisis, molecular definition means that we should STOP DRINKING WATER???

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List of compounds with carbon number 1

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_compounds_with_carbon_number_1

Despite global warming increasing the average temperature of the planet by almost 2 degrees(mostly the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere) the hottest(driest) Summer in the center of the United States, by a very wide margin was 1936. (The West, because there's less H2O in the air has more of a greenhouse gas effect from the increase in CO2). 

The length of time, lasting 3+ months and the massive geographical location blows all other heat waves away. Happening during the hottest time of year made it especially devastating. 

And worst of all is that this is the most productive agricultural region on the planet. Record  heat in a desert, like Arizona where not much grows in March is a bad thing. Record heat and record dry where we grow crops DURING THE ENTIRE GROWING SEASON is a bad thing X 100!

1936 North American heat wave

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1936_North_American_heat_wave#:~:text=Summer%201936%20remained%20the%20warmest,at%20just%20above%20the%20average.

Summer (June–August) 1936 average temperature, in degrees Fahrenheit. Record warmest and coldest is based on a 112-year period of records (1895–2006)

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Summer (June–August) 1936 precipitation, in inches. Record wettest and driest is based on a 112-year period of records (from 1895 until 2006).

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https://wattsupwiththat.com/2026/04/03/us-heatwaves-much-worse-in-past/

Global warming is adding around 7% more moisture to air masses that are 1 Deg. C(1.8 Deg. F) compared to a century ago.

However, note this extensive map of rainfall records and the specific list below it that includes the year of the records.

Almost all the records were set during the OLD climate!!

HDSC World Record Point Precipitation Measurements

https://www.weather.gov/owp/hdsc_world_record

The only good thing about heat waves in the West (and enhanced greenhouse gas warming because of the dry air) is this:

What's interesting about the heat index in desert and very dry climates is that the extremely LOW humidity/dew point makes it feel COOLER.(LESS HOT REALLY)!

So the Heat Index/feels like temperature is LOWER.

https://www.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/2022-05/heatindex_chart_dp.pdf

For instance the temperature at this location near Phoenix was an incredible 100 degrees in March with a dew point of 20 degrees in the bone dry air. This resulted in a Heat Index of 94 degrees?

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=211&y=190&site=psr&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=211&map_y=190

The accelerated evaporation of sweat(a cooling process) in the extremely dry air causes this.

Humid air has much less room for additional water vapor so it results in less evaporation and less cooling. 

Perspiration Cooling of Body

http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/thermo/sweat.html

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Of course the HIGHER dew points in the Midwest make it feel hotter than the actual temperature, even though extreme daytime temperatures have dropped because of climate change. 

Added: That more humid air as well as the greenhouse effect from increasing CO2 is also a huge factor in the most records of all being record warm nights!

The biggest problem that we have is one side telling us ONLY about the bad things from the increase in beneficial CO2. As if there isn't anything good about a beneficial gas, at only half the optimal level for life going up.

Like.............25% more food thanks to atmospheric fertilization of crops and 25% more greening of the planet which is providing more food for ALL the creatures on this planet isn't worth mentioning.

Instead, LIE about climate change and tell us that models are predicting smaller crop yields from heat and/or droughts. WRONG!

Programming models with bad equations to simulate, impossibly extreme scenarios out to 2100 is NOT authentic science.

Taking observations of empirical data of the REAL world is.

The verdict was in decades ago. The increase in beneficial CO2 has at least an order of magnitude more benefits to life than negatives. When it was bit warmer than this between 9,000 to 6,000 years ago, it was called the Holocene climate OPTIMUM ...........and that was without the massive increase in CO2.

So this current age is a climate OPTIMUM on CO2 steroids for almost all the life on this planet. 

Is it  slightly worse if you live in a desert?  Yes, but what did we expect in a desert??? 

Is it slightly worse if you live along a coastline? Yes, but what did people that developed along a coast and in hurricane alley expect?  

Is it massively better in many places, especially the extra CO2 in the US Cornbelt where we actually grow crops EVERY year and where weather matters the most by a Grand Canyon wide margin?

Yes and that crushes the negative of more heat waves in deserts where people who moved there, did it because they ACCEPTED HEAT and expected it to be a desert not a place to grow crops.

This is 2026 not 1926 with  adaptation in the especially hot places. Cold still kills 10 times more humans than heat on this planet every year (used to be 20 times until climate change made it better) and 200 times more life with climate change making that better.

During the Summer, we will be bombarded by stories about how climate change is making heat waves worse(not so in the Midwest) but during the Winter, when the temperature drops to 0, we don't ever read stories about how it would be EVEN COLDER without climate change. That NEVER happens.

In fact, they will often try to convince us that the extreme cold was caused by climate change. 

The point is that all the media stories tell us about the bad things only, that includes greatly exaggerating them and using JUNK science to convince people that the current climate OPTIMUM is actually a climate CRISIS.

The main thing that I want is to use empirical data/facts/principles to educate people with authentic science that gives people the objective, comprehensive picture in an honest form.

 DeathbyGREENING!            

                            52 responses |   

                Started bymetmike - May 11, 2021, 2:31 p.m.  

          https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/

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Here's another recent discussion:

                CO2 Finally Exonerated!!            

                            33 responses |            

                                            Started by metmike - March 2, 2025, 8:56 p.m.   

         https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/110244/

Indeed, conflating a warning about water safety with statistics on damage from a heat wave is pretty bad reporting.
It will be quite a while before real estimates of the damage to health & property get calculated. The first big heat waves in Europe this century, the ones with over 10,000 deaths, caught countries unprepared. People do tend to adapt, so that even worse heat will probably do less killing.

It will probably be months before things get totted up. And it will be far above 50 deaths, but most likely far less than previous disasters.

One thing that is being reported is construction workers being given frequent breaks and as much cooling as possible. It calls to mind Texas House Bill 217, which forbids local governments from regulating heat exposure.
https://www.smqlaw.com/workers-rights-in-the-texas-heat/

the heat wave and drought in France and Spain had grain prices on the Paris exchange rising.

I follow Spanish weather through the eyes of the olives. Spain produces more olive oil than the rest of Europe combined, and the crop was just recovering from a 2 year drought. This could be horrible!

 Good posts!

 Although US heat related deaths are rising and should continue to rise from GW, it’s true that far more people have died from cold than from heat (>10:1) as Mike said based on the Yale approved study, and thus GW should in theory result in a net of fewer cold/heat related deaths there for a good while into the future. And this isn’t even taking into account any increases in food supply attributed to longer growing seasons and increased CO2 fertilization effect as Mike also noted. So, CC clearly has some benefits regardless of the often emphasized harms that include rising sea levels, increased extreme flooding incidences, and more powerful tropical cyclone peaks/heavier rainfall from warmer temps holding more moisture and slower moving (on avg) TCs.

  Does/will CC lead to more benefits than harm like Mike insists? That depends on whom you ask as there are many different perspectives as well as biases. For example, AGW alarmists see only the bad effects and believe the worst case scenarios. OTOH, AGW deniers like Joe Bastardi don’t even acknowledge AGW!

 I don’t think it’s black and white. For example, I as a near coastal resident put more emphasis on past and progged sea rises as well as increased TC related rainfall/peak wind potential than many far from the coast since I see the direct effects close-up. The frequency of significant to major coastal flooding events nearby has increased greatly. This is both with tropical cyclones and without them including King tides on sunny days. Charleston, SC, is a great example of this. I see soooo many coastal flood advisories for there nowadays! It wasn’t anything like that in the past. However, I also acknowledge that a portion of this there and at places like Louisiana and even Manhattan is caused by sinking land. 

All 3 of these posts are awesome and demonstrate that the impacts of the global warming are tied to the "eyes of the beholder" 

patrick recently showed us authentic data from the sea level increase in the Boston area which is exceeding most places and causing SERIOUS PROBLEMS.  WxFollower has clearly demonstrated that hurricane threats are higher for coastal cities in hurricane alley(from both flooding and rapid strengthening of hurricanes from warmer water). cutworm pointed out that regional grain prices have spiked higher in June 2026 because of this huge heat wave in Europe.

In this age of technology, where extremes and their impacts are known instantly around the planet and become headline news for X amount of time, regardless of the .0X% of the planet they represent and rarely putting these weather extremes into  perspective. 

Bad news and disasters sell. Benefits from global warming don't. 

We have been brainwashed to think that 150+ years ago, when CO2 levels were 140 parts per million lower(more like ~290 ppm compared to the current ~430 ppm) and the global temperature was 2 degrees cooler,  that this defined the PERFECT climate and any deviation warmer than that because of humans burning fossil fuels that emit (beneficial) CO2 that they call "climate pollution" (Al Gore, for instance constantly insists that we are using the atmosphere as a sewer because of the CO2 emissions) is a CLIMATE CRISIS!

1. The optimal level of CO2 for life on this planet is 900 ppm, more than double the current ambient atmospheric level of CO2.  If all life forms/creatures on planet earth could vote for the CO2 level for them to thrive, the VAST majority would vote for MUCH MORE. 

2. Meet my friend, Mr. Authentic (weather/climate)Data that can take us back to the PREVIOUS CLIMATE. The one that we are supposed to think was the perfect climate before humans messed it up with CO2 emissions from burning fossils fuels. The 1800s!

                Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Death by GREENING!            

                            By metmike - Feb. 2, 2025, 7:54 a.m.            

Here in 2026, we are living in a climate optimum with absolute, scientific certainty!!

Causes and consequences of nineteenth century droughts in North America

https://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/drought/nineteenth.shtml

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You want a REAL climate CRISIS?

This is what it looks like:

Can you imagine if this below happened today? It's less likely because climate change and the current climate OPTIMUM is helping to PROTECT US!

The planet had a REAL climate crisis between 1876 and 1878.

50 million people died. 3% of the global population died from that real climate crisis!

Causes of the Great Famine, One of the Deadliest Environmental Disasters

https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2017/12/15/causes-great-famine-drought/

The Great Famine killed an estimated 12 to 29 million people in India. Image

El-Niño Grande and the Great Famine (1876-78)

https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC51F..04S/abstract

The 1876-1878 Great Famine impacted multiple regions across the globe including parts of Asia, Nordeste Brazil, and northern and southern Africa, with total human fatalities exceeding 50 million people, arguably the worst environmental disaster to befall humanity.

NASA EXPLAINS THE DUST BOWL DROUGHT

https://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2004/0319dustbowl.html 

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Climate change in the United States, with 100% certainty is helping to protect us from widespread severe droughts. Tightly packed rows of corn in the Midwest during the growing season has created a beneficial micro climate!!!

Summer Climate Change in the Midwest and Great Plains due to Agricultural Development during the Twentieth Century    

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/32/17/jcli-d-19-0096.1.xml       

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We are indisputably living in a climate optimum for most life on this planet(that would still prefer a bit more warmth and a lot more CO2) and for growing crops in the United States!  

Despite that, there are more intense heat waves in many places(it's global WARMING, for Pete's sake). Definitely more flooding and melting ice is adding to the natural sea level increase.

But ONLY telling us about those bad things and NEVER telling us about the much bigger picture, while calling beneficial CO2 a pollutant and our atmosphere a sewer is worse than junk science. It's a scientific lie that contradicts authentic science, where CO2 serves as the building block FOR ALL LIFE and we are barely at 50% of the optimal level, as the massively greening planet is telling us how much plants really love the additional CO2. 

Every animal on the planet eats plants or something that ate plants. 

                Death by GREENING!            

                            Started by metmike - May 11, 2021, 2:31 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/