Regardless of how bullish (or not) the USDA numbers look at face value, the markets told us much more by their immediate reaction after the release.

Corn shot up 10c, wheat +15c and beans +20c. 

This was also my last post at the previous thread which "might' have something to do with that and our ability to hold much of those gains(the weather changes)

                Re: Re:   GRAINS June 14,            

                            By metmike - June 30, 2026, 10:43 a.m.            

            Overnight, the week 2 AND July forecast from the European Ensemble model was even a bit more bullish.

That was not the case for all the other models although the GEFS July forecast is a bit hotter/drier in the WCB.

The USDA will determine prices for the rest of this session in just over an hour.  

I will keep open the possibility that the EE, although an outlier that's getting low weighting.........could be right. 

+++++++++++

The just updated NWS week 2 forecast shows the potential bullishness. Though we have northwest flow, it's still very warm  and potentially on the dry side.

Certainly enough to make sellers cautious, when a small shift in the location of the dome can slip the July forecast to HOT and DRY for the WCB overnight. 

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83852

++++++++++

I need to go get my 3 year old grandson, Cyrus from day care and will add much more later. 

Only a mediocre baseball hitter can make more money than weather forecasters.  Wrong/right every four hours.  Pathetic.   

Thanks, tjc!

Glad you think so well of the field of meteorology   

I wouldn't have opened my first account with $2k at IRA Epstein (because all he other firms required $5k and all I had was $2k)) in 1992 if not for this impact on the markets from the weather. 

The price of corn, beans and natural gas actually change even more than the weather which is what makes trading them so challenging and profitable.

Incredibly, the skill at forecasting weather has greatly improved during the 45 years while I've been a meteorologist.

In the 1980's, the extended forecast was the 3 to 5 day outlooks. Then in the 1990's the 6 to 10 day. Shortly after that the 8-14 day outlook which is often the most important time frame for traders because it has the most changes.

Change = profits if you're positioned for it before the market dials it in. 

Being a meteorologist is the most fun and challenging profession imaginable and only because the weather models/patterns and forecasts are always changing.

The main objective every day isn't to look for reasons why yesterday's forecast is still right.

Just the opposite. It's to look for reasons why yesterday's forecast might be wrong in order to  CHANGE IT so it's even better than yesterday's forecast and hope that tomorrow, maybe you can make it  better again.

My first few months at WEHT in Evansville, IN, back when we didn't even try to forecast beyond 5 days I told 10's of thousands of viewers what the weather was going to be like for the next 5 days, including at 10 pm. 

That's the last thing those people would remember and some of them might not be watching the next day if I updated the forecast.  So I was immersed in a biased mindset that cared too much about yesterday's forecast being right. 

Just like with a trader in a losing position cutting their losses, same thing with weather forecasting. What a trader did LAST just like what the meteorologist predicted LAST is what counts the most, like most actions in life. 

Also holding oneself  accountable for busted forecast and changes, while using solid reasoning in the updated forecast philosophy. 

Karen Braun@kannbwx

U.S. corn acres land above expectations and nearly equal with the March figure. Soybean plantings rise as expected from March, but wheat acres fall well below expectations.

June 1 U.S. corn stocks land below all trade estimates. Soybean stocks come in above the average estimate while wheat stocks are a bit lighter than expected.

2026 U.S. wheat plantings land below all trade estimates, maintaining its title as the smallest wheat area since records began in 1919. Spring wheat plantings will be the smallest in 56 years. Winter wheat acres come in below all estimates at a six-year low.

++++++++++++++

U.S. cotton plantings land near the top of trade expectations, up 6% from last year. Rice acres come in below all analyst estimates, down 28% from last year.

+++++++++++

USDA's June survey reveals U.S. corn area nearly identical to the March survey.  Plantings rose in Illinois, Nebraska, North Dakota and the Delta, while Iowa was among the states trimming acres from March. Dryness also cut 150k acres in Texas.

++++++++++

USDA's June survey found 2026 U.S. soybean acres up 0.8% from its March survey, the largest increase for this report in 10 years. The trend among top-producing states was mixed, though stronger plantings in Kansas and Ohio helped boost overall area.

++++++++++

metmike: MIND BOGGLING!!!  The last time this amount of wheat was harvested was less than 20 years after the Civil War!!!

USDA projects U.S. farmers will harvest just 32.1 million acres of wheat in 2026. That would be a 149-year low, the smallest harvested area since 1877.

We've been adding rains to week 1 in the Upper Midwest. Many areas of the Central/Eastern Cornbelt will benefit from this week after dry weather.  No this much heat and the humidity is too high (warm/muggy nights) which could contribute to disease pressure in the waterlogged areas. 

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

1.  This was the last 500 mb map of this last 18z GEFS run on July 16th. 

2. This was just the change from  the previous 12z run.  Bearish!   Lower 500 mb heights (in blue) across the entire Cornbelt. Strengthening northwest flow. Cooler temps.

1. This last map on day 16 of the last 0z Canadian model builds the 594 dm heat dome farther north.

2. Previous 0z run from 24 hours ago. 

https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=384&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=gz

this,latest 0z  GEFS on the other hand is coming,out cooler than previous runs.

  Good morning

  Trust everyone "noticed" my frustration at the ever changing weather forecasts.  It 'hurts' to be right (long), set reasonable stop, then get hit, only for a turnaround to prove you were correct.  Happens frequently, but exasperating.  

  MetMike handled my frustration with a VERY well written reply.  I just hope HE recognized a frustrated trader venting!

  I believe Mike would agree---better to be stopped than to allow a huge loss.

Thanks, tjc!

I totally get it and try to avoid a mindset that takes things personal but instead, try to understand the mindset of the other person.

Below is the story of the Summer that I had your frustrated mindset during all of July(after the 4th) for the rest of the growing season and it paralyzed my ability to trade because of being devastated by a loss of 60% of the account,  having sell stops hit on the lows for Summer. 

Compare that to other example when I lost almost 50% of the account(with market orders to get out of longs on the open Monday morning that was the smartest trading decision of my life because staying in for 10 more minutes(which is what every broker advised me to do) would have lost MORE THAN was in the account with a lock limit move.

                Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:  GRAINS June 14,            

                            By metmike - June 26, 2026, 7:19 p.m.            

I have the luxury and advantage of knowing what the weather models show right when they come out. You have to wait X amount of time to find out. Even if I'm posting the change here in somewhat timely fashion, it's often while showing how the market ALREADY reacted. You have to have protective stops in. 

What you may be overlooking when you get stopped out is that thinking you were right in the beginning and just early in a weather  market. That's what actually happened to me with my biggest loss but over leveraged. I was right FOR THE RIGHT REASONS, my weather analysis in a market trading exclusively on weather which, in the end will TRUMP everything else.

In this case, you were trading your technical, timing, cycle formations and other stuff while using weather too. Those all move AFTER the weather changes in the mind of the market (Composite Man).

You are following what the market thinks AFTER the earliest and biggest weather traders know the latest forecasts. I am trying to beat them by putting on the position BEFORE they start loading up and before the technical indicators others use send out buy or sell signals. 

You are successful at what you do, I'm just saying that the only reason I ever got into the trading business is having a huge edge over everybody else using the weather.

In the 1990's, I had a satellite dish on my roof getting weather information an hour before the market and I turned 2k into 500k in 7 years. I made $579,000 in 1999, which was my best year ever!

I can't do that anymore. Every body else has the same weather service that I do and on the internet. A few of them use in house models for just the US that get the data FASTER than me. I can still make money, especially when the weather forecast is changing the most which is often when your positions are most at risk.

I will never feel bad that I can no longer take candy from the market babies like in the 1990's. It was great while it lasted and I worry more about my health now and staying up all night to babysit a weather trade kicks my butt the next day so I try to minimize that as much as possible.

Also, I had my 6 figure account taken on October 31., 2011 by Jon Corzine, raiding all the segregated accounts to make a margin call on his huge European bond position, then after borrowing all the money I could to open a new account at PFG Best, they bankrupted in July 2012. 

And this isn't the 1990's anymore. I can't make all that back. At least I was able to claim the losses on my tax returns and didn't have to pay any Federal taxes for a long time.