The potential change in week 2 mentioned yesterday/Friday continues to take shape. It would lead to the chance of a widespread rain event returning to the Cornbelt as seen below from the last 12z run of the Canadian Ensemble day 10 weather maps!
The intense shot of heat in the Midsection that is starting today will be another brief event.
Get all the comprehensive weather here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
Current Hazards at the link below.
For your NWS and county, go to the link below.
Then you can hit any spot on the map, including where you live and it will go to that NWS with all the comprehensive local weather information for that/your county.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/soybeans
1. 10 years: Long term/major bottom in late Summer 2024(from flash drought). New uptrend late 2025/2026. Gap higher above resistance. Still at some long term potential resistance.
2. 1 year: SOLID uptrend! New highs this week ABOVE the double top earlier this year. The first gap up is NOT really a gap but was just a long bar up. The next gap is the upside break away gap that remains open.
3. 1 month: Steep uptrend!!! Up over $1.30! Weather forecasts turned bullish
4. 1 week: Steep uptrend losing steam/momentum on Friday potential bearish(less bullish) change to the weather forecast.
Here's the Canadian Ensemble model again. This time on day 10 and the last 12z model. Go to the link to see each member in the average. The average below reflects the majority that indicate a powerful upper level system crashing into the N. Plains/Upper Midwest with a strong cold front at the surface triggering storms. Probably some severe weather associated with the system too.
That's IF this solution pans out. The Canadian model is the most bullish with the strength below.
https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=384&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=gz
https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=240&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm
++++++++++++
In addition, the European model below has an upper level perturbation coming over the top/periphery of the heat ridge that will rapidly retreat from the Midwest mid- week.
This could trigger a big cluster of t-storms tracking southeast in the northwest flow. COULD! Yellow areas below represent vorticity/spin in the atmosphere. As vorticity increases within these streamlines(of constant heights) that define the flow at 500 mb(19,000 feet) it lifts the air, leading to rains if other conditions are favorable(low level jet stream and moisture pooling/convergence for instance).
Rains with a set up like this can be very productive over several states 1 time, then the next time with the same set up nothing happens.
Scroll down from this link to see the forecast for individual days rains as well as risk for severe weather and excessive rain.
Rain in this week 1 forecast on Sunday afternoon is clearly up from Friday’s forecast.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83848
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
+++++++++++++++
Below is the 500 mb map with vorticity from the last 0z European Ensemble model for Sunday afternoon.
I'm hoping a lobe of vorticity, coming around the periphery of the heat ridge and tracking in the nw to se flow late this afternoon/evening will trigger clusters of thunderstorms that get to Evansville, IN even though the strongest activity will likely be farther north, where other dynamics are more favorable.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Below is the 250 mb level/steering currents up at 36,000 feet in the heat of Summer(warmer air expands the atmosphere upwards by x thousands of feet because it's less dense).
Note the wind barbs. They have a strong north to south component to the east of the heat ridge. So we should expect the storms that develop to track southeast, even curving more southward if they make it this far south because of our location with respect to the circulation around the heat ridge.
Wind barbs in the state of MO, for instance are almost all due south!
