https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

The Storm Prediction Center just updated the outlook to increase the chance of severe storms in a pocket to the south. Below is the risk for WINDS of 58+ mph.  The hatched area is a 10% risk that those winds being 70+ mph. 

https://www.colonieweatheronline.com/storm/outlook.php?id=us

The chance of tornadoes is LOW this far south. Less than 2%. If/when we see a watch in Evansville, IN it will be a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM watch. Not a tornado watch.

                Re: Re: Re: Grains 7-25-26           

                            By metmike - July 26, 2026, 11:29 a.m.            

Scroll down from this link to see the forecast for individual days rains as well as risk for severe weather and excessive rain. 

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83848

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

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Below is the 500 mb map with vorticity from the last 0z European Ensemble model for Sunday afternoon. 

I'm hoping a lobe of vorticity, coming around the periphery of the heat ridge and tracking in the nw to se flow late this afternoon/evening will trigger clusters of thunderstorms that get to Evansville, IN even though the strongest activity will likely be farther north, where other dynamics are more favorable.

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Below is the 250 mb level/steering currents up at 36,000 feet in the heat of Summer(warmer air expands the atmosphere upwards by x thousands of feet because it's less dense).

Note the wind barbs. They have a strong north to south component to the east of the heat ridge. So we should expect the storms that develop to track southeast, even curving more southward if they make it this far south because of our location with respect to the circulation around the heat ridge. 

Wind barbs in the state of MO, for instance are almost all due south!