It's September 5th already. You're one day older! Do something special to remember this next day! Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it today.
The latest on tropical storm Gordon here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/11991/
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!
Now the heaviest rains shift southeast and increase this weekend when Gordon's moisture reaches the Midwest.
Drying after this the following week minimizes the damage.
The latest rain forecasts are below...........broken down into each period coming up. Then the 1 week totals.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
There will continue to be a risk of excessive rains this week.............high confidence. However, the area with the heaviest rain threat has shifted southeast a bit.
Remnants of Gordon will now generate the heaviest rains!
Current Day 1 Forecast
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 2 Forecast |
Day 3 forecast below
Severe Storm Risk. Hit the map for full screen. Main risk is heavy rains.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Current Day 1 Outlook | |
Current Day 2 Outlook | |
Current Day 3 Outlook | |
Current Day 4-8 Outlook |
High Temperatures today and Thursday. Hot in the Eastern USA. Very cool in the N/C.Plains/Upper Midwest..................cooler air to cover a lot of area this week, that was supposed to have heat in last week's forecast.
Highs days 3-7.
Cooler air Plains/Midwest/Great Lakes, Northeast. This surges a bit farther south over the weekend! Starting to warm back up next week.
How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year? We are now 7 weeks past the climatological time of year when temperatures are the hottest.
Not far from average.
High temperature departures:
Low Temperature Departures:
Here are the surface map features for that same days 3-7 period:
A cold front midweek, will stall and even return north as a warm front, ahead of a strong wave from a mid latitude source that may organize a system that entrains remnant moisture from Gordon and tracks northeast.
The remnants of Gordon will continue to track northwest, possibly as far west as the OK/KS border by late Fri/early Sat. At that point, it will get picked up by a system along a stalled front and load massive amounts of precipitable water into it.
That system will then track northeast over the weekend.........possibly strong enough to have a small surface (low) reflection and dump some copious rain amounts along its path. It will be moving, so hefty rain totals directly from Gordon will only last something like 6-12 hours in any spot once things get moving early in the weekend...............then be gone before the start of next work week.
This will not be the best weather for soybeans but we dry out after that!
Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!
Humid air in place. Gulf of Mexico moisture +fairly high soil moisture. This H2O will continue to be used by our main weather maker the next several days. Added moisture will come from Gordon.
Very dry air N.Plains to Upper Midwest.
Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature. Heat Index is a big factor over the Eastern 1/3 or the US right now.
As warm, moist air moves northward, with southerly winds(on the backside of a huge high pressure system along the East Coast) rains will continue the next several days.
But everything is shifting southeast with a cold front, the leading edge of cooler and drier air taking front stage!
The remnants of Gordon are moving northwest and later this week, will merge with the cold front.
https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather
Here is the latest radar image. Rains shifting a bit farther southeast. Rains from Gordon in the south.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
Satellite picture. Note the distinct cloud formation from Gordon. Clouds in the Upper Midwest then across the Plains.
Rains the past 24 hours. Heaviest in the Upper Midwest(now moving southeast) and from Gordon(moving northwest). They will merge in 3 days.
You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
Much of the Cornbelt is in great shape for early September so the crops were fed lots of yield making H2O in August.
Too wet in a zone across n.IA/s.MN to w.WI/nw.IL..............and the East Coast. It will get wetter for an area just southeast of the wettest areas later this week.
Drier next week.
Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
Bountiful rains for most of the Cornbelt..............and points eastward and westward. This has increased yields in August!!!
Now we will get too much rain! But the too much rain will be shifting southeast midweek!
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday. Drought has been shrinking but still persists in N.Missouri(which will shrink more in next weeks update) and Texas.........this measure takes into account the long term precip/sub soil moisture and goes back over MANY months.
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx
Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in white.
Today: Big Heat in Eastern 1/3rd! Cool N.Plains/U.Midwest!
In 5+ days:
Very warm West. Not nearly as warm Midwest/East as last Friday's forecast. 
In 10+ days:
Very warm for much of the country. Heat spreads east again.
Day 15 Positive anomalies for much of the country. How warm will it be in the East?? Heat in mid September is not like heat in mid July! Cold in Canada.
The top map is the ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average
Question is........how dominant will the heat ridge be in the East as week 2 progresses? Will it be suppressed south?
Powerful jet stream in Canada! How far south will it dip into the US and where? Cold air pooling in Canada...........will it surge across the border later this month?
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Sep 20, 2018 00 UTC
This was the GFS ensemble mean from 06z.....the last run. Still a stout heat ridge in the Southeast.
The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4.
Much cooler air in Canada comes south on todays solution. Drier in late September............good for harvest.
September is gradually getting cooler, almost every year and heating degree days start replacing cooling degree days as being the most important.
In October onward, warmth like this, especially in the Northern States will be increasingly BEARISH because it decreases the need for warming energy vs heat currently still increasing the need for cooling energy.
Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:
Precip below:
Looking way out to the latest NWS Winter Forecast that was updated this part week. Large area of above normal temperatures for the Northern 1/2 of the country.
Near normal temperatures in the Southern 1/2 and wet in the south.
This looks like an El Nino type analog. In other words, the NWS is expecting an El Nino this Winter(weak), so their seasonal forecast is mostly based off of historical tendencies for weather in the Great USA when there is an El Nino in the Pacific.
El Nino's are capable of having a profound influence on the weather......especially directly downstream(in the US). The oceans have 1,000 times more heat capacity than the atmosphere, and the Pacific Ocean has over half of that.
Changes in heating in the lower atmosphere is what causes our weather. This is all the result of the sun. The sun's angle changes, which is what causes more heat in some places vs others. Oceans store and release much of that heat, which pulsates randomly and also in cycles. Seasonal variations in the suns power/angle as well as a rotating planet(Coriolis force) are also big factors in tandem with the physics of a planet constantly trying to balance the meridional(with latitude) temperature contrast but never achieving that objective...........because it stays colder in places with a lower sun angle and warmer where the sun angle is higher.
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The last few days of CFS runs shows how volatile/low skill it is and why it is given very little credibility. A group of pro mets a few months ago analyzed the CFS and found that it couldn’t even beat out longtime climo well before week 3!
Folks, just because Hurricane Florence is way out there and in a position and on a track (WNW that Far East of the US as well as already being a little north of the main development region) that has almost always resulted in a hurricane missing the US, don’t yet assume this will safely miss the US. Model guidance has not been clear recently. So, it is still too soon to make a call one way or the other.
Potentially, Strong hurricane Florence clobbering the East Coast in 8 days according to the last 12z European model just out. Day's 8-9-10 below.....maps spaced 12 hours apart:
The trend of less rain in week 2 has really continued here for the 3rd day in a row. You might remember that all the week 2 forecasts last week featured widespread above average rains with fairly high probabilities.
Like the last 2 days we continue to have a large area with BELOW average rain. Many areas will be water logged with excessive rains during week 1 and the drier weather will be just what the grain doctor ordered to minimize/lessen disease pressure and other issues from wet crops.
Early harvest, will not be so early in places that need awhile to dry out...........but week 2 should make things better and harvest pressure should increase later this month........which the market traded today.
The heat in week 2 will assist in drying out the corn crop as well as the ground. Hot weather from mid Sept onward is just loosing it's ability to be bullish for natural gas because it can't stay hot enough for long enough anymore.
6-10 day Temperature Probability |
Precipitation Probability |
8-14 day Temperature Probability |
Precipitation Probability |
Threat for heavy rains in the 3-7 day period. Moving east, then east of the Cornbelt by the 10th...........and maybe for awhile after that.
