Perhaps grains put in a daily cycle low around 7 to 730am cst Monday morning.
If so, look for a Tuesday upward continuation, to sell, with a Thursday (prob Wed night/Thur early morn) low to buy.
Yes, prob based upon some revised weather forecast on Tuesday midmorning or thereafter.
Why do I so prolificate? "3 days after a low/high, market will retest"
Two cents.
Anticipated rally prob wont exceed previous high, OR will GREATLY exceed it!!
Re: Re: Re: Re: : : Grains 7-25-26
By metmike - Aug. 3, 2026, 9:20 p.m.
Thanks very much, tjc!
tjc: "ON FRIDAY, just before close, I ignored rain/weather, then capitulated OH SO CLOSE TO THE BOTTOM--should have slept in!"
metmike: You assume that a 1 day bounce means the bottom is in and you missed it. That could be the case but we don't know.
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Previous thread:
Grains 7-25-26
43 responses |
Started by metmike - July 25, 2026, 5:01 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/121842/
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Get all the comprehensive weather here:
The overnight guidance took out a tremendous amount of heat for the Cornbelt.
This was the last 0z European Ensemble model for just the Midwest(purple line on the right-previous 1 from 12 hours earlier). Holy Cow! -17 CDDs!!!
Beans are making new lows for the move after the dead cat bounce on Monday.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/soybeans
1. 1 week: Below the lows Monday. Dead cat bounce shown.
2. 1 month: Downtrend from top. Hot and dry weather forecasts caused the beans to rally well over $1 in 2+ weeks. Increasing rains have pressured prices since then. Successively lower highs. Yesterday's dead cat bounce was another (3rd) bear flag to sell into.
3. 1 year: Uptrend still intact. Potential support in this area.
Re: Re: Re: : : Grains 7-25-26
By tjc - Aug. 3, 2026, 8:12 p.m.
You had a HUGE advantage years ago--now you must anticipate THEIR weather--over sold/bought, cycles, RSI, %R, or AT LEASAT a combination of techs AND then your weather. Did you not 'observe' lack of rain? ON FRIDAY, just before close, I ignored rain/weather, then capitulated OH SO CLOSE TO THE BOTTOM--should have slept in!
You always bought/sold based upon your advantage--must rely on at least something else?
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tjc,
I don't know how it could be any more clear. In my grains and ng posts how the weather is STILL impacting those markets. I post more about this than anything else. Often the most important item. A weather trader can still make a ton of money using this if they just pay attention with an open mind to understand it.
There have been and will always be plenty of other items and it is MUCH more challenging today compared to the 1990's, when I had a satellite dish on my roof getting weather information 30 minutes faster than the market and it was like taking candy from a baby but weather markets still exist today and readers at MarketForum have been treated to a learning experience this Summer on how that works.
Re: Re: Re: Re: : Grains 7-25-26
By metmike - Aug. 3, 2026, 11:37 a.m.
The NWS dialed in that cooler overnight change to the weather models by shifting the heat much farther south in their week 2 forecast on Tuesday as well as keeping the rains in the entire Cornbelt and ADDING rains farther south to it.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83852
Beans had their lowest close since before the July 4th weekend. After that weekend they started the new week/Monday, July 6th with 40c+ gains because of the weather pattern change that catapulted them higher during July!
Grains/USDA report 6-30-26
31 responses |
Started by metmike - June 30, 2026, 3:39 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/121257/
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Re: Re: Re: Grains/USDA report 6-30-26
By metmike - July 5, 2026, 8:18 p.m.