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8-28-26 Late Summer heat wave
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Started by metmike - Aug. 28, 2026, 8:45 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/122444/
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Get all the comprehensive weather here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
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The latest guidance has a STRONG cold front dropping thru the Midwest in the middle of this week as the MAJOR heat dome is beat down by upper level energy from the northern stream!
Weather features the next week. Note the cold front. This one will finally have some much cooler air behind it.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml
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This is what the expansive, rain suppressing heat dome will look like from the last 0z run of the European Ensemble model. This is 500 mb which is around the mid point of the atmosphere based on its mass/weight. In this case
A 500 mb geopotential height of 597 on a summer weather map corresponds to an altitude of 5,947 meters (about 19,587 feet or 3.7 miles) above sea level.
The hotter it is the less dense the air and the fatter the atmosphere becomes with the 597 contour (for 500 mb) only showing up when the atmosphere has really expanded from HEAT.
500 mb pattern this week:
1. Late Tuesday: 597 dm closed contour heat DOME with powerful upper level energy crashing thru the Upper Midwest and tracking southeast.
2. Thursday: Upper level energy has smashed the heat dome and forced it to retrograde much farther west!
3. September 17/18: The heat ridge is farther southwest to the south with modest northwest flow into the Midwest.



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Graph on the right: Predicted CDD's(cooling degree days) for just the Midwest the next 2 weeks from that last 0z European Ensemble model(purple). Previous run was 12 hours earlier. After the spike higher early this week, note the significant drop which even takes temperatures close to average(that may be optimistic). The heat will be pushed farther south and especially southwest.

The biggest benefit here will be to potentially get the first decent rain in several weeks!
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

This was the last 12z European model update for CDDs for just the Midwest, purple/right. Down another 7.7 CDDs. from the previous, already cooler run.
