Source Reuters News
Brazil's 2026-27 soybean crop could fall to 163.6mmt under a strong El Nino scenario, compared with 181.2 mmt under neutral weather conditions, a study by Serasa Experian.
Record crush pace here in US and the"IF" factor in SA. one could see why the funds like being long soybeans.
Thanks, bcb!
https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-soy-crop-el-nino-serasa-2026/
That actually is OLD news for the market which has known about (and traded risk premium for) the Super El Nino and production risks during the Southern Hemisphere's growing season for many months. Funds were loading up back during the SUMMER, especially in August.
Funds have been in big liquidation mode of their record longs for well over a month now!
However, should an actual drought develop in CENTRAL Brazil/Mato Grosso it would become very bullish for beans.
More shortly.
Previous threads:
Grains 9-30-26
36 responses |
Started by metmike - Sept. 30, 2026, 3:44 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/123054/
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South America weather
8 responses |
Started by metmike - Sept. 28, 2026, 10:10 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/123002/
https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/el-nino-explainer/index.html
