Excessive rain threat taking a break for a few days.

The new threat, starting in the middle of THIS week will be from Hurricane Florence along the East Coast!

Current Day 1 Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 Forecast

Day 3 forecast below

Severe Storm Risk. Pretty low.  Hit the map for full screen.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
Current Day 2 Outlook
Current Day 3 Outlook
Current Day 4-8 Outlook

High Temperatures today and Tuesday.   Hot Southwest, spewing into the Plains. Very cool in the Midwest to Northeast today but then warming.

Highs days 3-7. Very Warm!

New cold surge Northern Plains/Upper Midwest late in this period.

How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?  We are now 7 weeks past the climatological time of year when temperatures are the hottest.

 Warming up again next week to well above average.............but average in mid September is not that hot anymore. With low storage, it's still possible to give a bullish kick to natural gas if it was going to last.

High temperature departures:

Low Temperature Departures:

Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!  

Humid air has been showed to the Gulf Coast and far Southeast.

The remnants of Gordon and the mid latitude weather system are  bombing the Northeast today.......drier/cooler weather is moving in behind that system.

Cool Canadian High Pressure in the Midwest.

https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Here is the latest radar image.  

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Satellite picture.    Clouds in the Northeast.  

Florence in the Atlantic is now showing up and taking aim on the East Coast!!! 

Rains the past 24 hours.  PA got bombed!

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

Much of the Cornbelt was in great shape for early September so the crops were fed lots of yield making H2O in August.

Too wet in a huge area now!

Drier this week, which will minimize the problems to the crops.

Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

Bountiful rains for most of the Cornbelt..............and points eastward and westward. This increased yields in August!!!

Now we have had too much rain!  But the too much rain has shifted southeast as expected! It will come to an end today and we will dry out next week.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

rought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday. Drought has been shrinking but still persists in N.Missouri  and Texas.........this measure takes into account the long term precip/sub soil moisture and goes back over MANY months.

            http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx    

Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.

Today:     Cool air surge pretty far south. Hot Southwest moving towards N.Plains.

In 5+ days:

Very warm/hot air surge. Cold in SW. Canada hitting N.Plains.

In 10+ days:

Cold in Canada! Another very cool air surge south of border?

Day 15  Positive anomalies over much of the US.  Heat in LATE September is not like heat in LATE July! How warm will it be in the East???

The top map is the ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

0Zz ensembles from Monday continue all over the place by late week 2. No surprize for this time of year and that far out.

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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Sep 25, 2018 00 UTC

The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4.

Very impressive upper level ridge in Western Canada to Central Canada, that expands.

September is gradually gets cooler, almost every year. Heating degree days(from cold weather) will soon be replacing cooling degree days(from hot weather) as being the most important as we get into October.

Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:

Precip below:

NWS Week 2 maps below.  Nothing exciting. Cooling off a bit in the northern border states. Rains increasing in some places but no heavy rain signal.

The grains will be trading harvest weather now at times. Time to start watching South America!

Natural gas is in temperature limbo. 

6-10 day Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

8-14 day Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

(very) Extreme weather days 3-7.  Hurricane Florence and the remnants will be the highlight, especially bad, starting Thursday.

Here was the overnight rainfall forecast for South America. Much too early in the year to be trading 

weather for grains down there. However, this is getting into the seasonal time frame for coffee country to

need rains to trigger flowering.  Looks like some of those are coming.