It seems to me that Trump sees China as the biggest challenge to Trump and his Trade policy. Trump wants china to stop using the American market as a dumping ground for cheap "made in china" products.
So Trumps answer is to put tariffs on Chinese products. But who is the winner of such a policy. Tariffs will make any imports from China more expensive at Wall Mart or other retailers to the American consumer.
So how do American tariffs affect China??
I would argue not very much. China is actively looking to source Agriculture food products from all over the world. Soon china will have a year round supply of food without the need to rely on American exports of soybeans etc. China is actively encouraging domestic production of consumer goods within china, thus giving a boost to Chinese "made in china" new domestic markets. A billion plus people can soak up a lot of cheap, or at least affordable domestic, consumer production.
In a few short yrs, even next yr., china will have new supply sources that exclude America. What does America sell to china that can't be replaced with another source. I don't think china will have much of a need for American products, in a very short time span
However, "tit for tat" tariffs on Chinese products will cause real pain to American consumers. If America produces goods for the domestic retail consumer market, we know the consumer cost will be much higher
And the sad part is: as china finds new production of food supplies in new places around the world, what will America do with surplus grain that has no or limited markets
Trump is on a roll now, but if he thinks china will roll over and concede the trade battle, china has been preparing, and can say no to Trumps trade demands. What can Trump do except hurt his own citizens as "made in America" are not competitive with Vietnam etc production. Does Trump draw a wall around america with higher tariffs and then watch the American consumer struggle with much higher prices, and losing out on the export side of surplus grain. American farmers will produce surplus grain as they always do, but where is the market. Who can America sell to that isn't already supplied with current suppliers on the world market. American farmers do have markets for grain, but if china is not a customer, surplus grain will soon be a burden on world prices.
American farmers will be forced to sell surplus grain at fire sale prices. American consumers will be forced to pay higher prices for almost all consumer goods
So who is the likely winner in a trade war with china??
We already know that any new production facilities that have opened, and are providing American workers with jobs, have a high cost of production and buyers of such production, such as steel, are paying higher prices for "made in America" production
Many new jobs are paying minimum wages, which is a job, but families struggle with minimum wages. If Wall Mart has to increase prices, what happens, to families already struggling with minimum wages
I can see some real problems ahead as Trump tackles trade with china, and I don't see how Trump can even attempt a trade war with china whit out severe pain to aamerican citizens. The troubling thought is that china can ignore Trumps demands with very little harm done to China citizens
Tell me where I am wrong