it looks like long bonds are finally trying to break out?
interest rates up, bond prices down? we'll see if it a breakout or a fakeout.
and the yield curve currently is no longer getting more narrow.
I have thought that the 100 yr cycle should force interest rates to jump going into 2020. (then probably back down, maybe into a big double bottom by 2024?).
One more hurtle to go. 139.25 ish last support for bonds.I have a full position of TMV
I can't get the scenario out of my mind of China retaliating by dumping US bonds on the market. Today's sharp move down in the long bond coincides with the latest tariffs. But probably just a coincidence.
I'm thinking that the market is coming to grips with the facts that;
1 The fed is going to raise rates
2 The big deficit has to be finaniced
3 the demand for money in a booming economy
Bonds nearing the 139 .25 support level. Probably some sell stops below that. The Question boes it bounce or go through? Tmv resistance at $22.20 I am long TMV
Bonds and 10 year notes are again testing the support levels form May.
Tomorrow the FED speaks at
2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision, followed by Jerome Powell press briefing
3.3 % rates, maybe 5% The down trend in interest rates is over.
https://www.ino.com/blog/2018/09/10-year-u-s-treasury-note-yield-eyes-3-33/#.W6p1SNNKjIU
The bond market went higher after the fed spoke.
Form
Started by tallpine - Sept. 26, 2018, 4:32 p.m.
KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/13960/
If December extends the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 138-28 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 141-31 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 140-25. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 141-31. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 139-17. Second support is May's low crossing at 138-28.
Bonds are yet again testing the 139.25 ish level. Will it breakthrough this time?
I continue to be long TMV 1/2 position. will add on a breakdown in bonds
I have to think that pension funds are a real driver. If we think politics is a mess now, think about every pension fund in the country going bust, and what that means for politics.
Bonds finally broke down and had a big day down. I expect that they will retest the 139 level again. I am now short what is for me 1 whole position via TMV
Hope the plumber caught this move.
Shorting bonds and notes will be the next major mover.
ruh roh rorge....
You have to be out of your mind to catch this falling knife.....
I,m short
