Weather Thursday
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Started by metmike - Oct. 4, 2018, 9:41 a.m.

Merry October 4th.   Do something special for somebody to remember today! Seriously, don't just think about it for a it.

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!

 The latest rain forecasts for the next week are below. Rains really start increasing on Friday.............excessive amounts getting closer and they will continue into early  next week. The area effected with the highest amounts still looks like the W.Cornbelt to the S.Plains. Amounts could exceed 6 inches from TX/OK/KS/IA area.

Day 1 below:

Day 2 below:

Day 3 below:

Days 4-5 below:

 Days 6-7 below:

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By metmike - Oct. 4, 2018, 9:42 a.m.
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Excessive Rain threat

Really goes up later this week into early next week

Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

Day 3 forecast below

Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

By metmike - Oct. 4, 2018, 9:44 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk.

Some stronger storms possible but heavy rains will be the main threat.

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - Oct. 4, 2018, 9:46 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and Friday.

The heat recedes a bit, then surges back north!

Remaining very chilly N.Plains.



By metmike - Oct. 4, 2018, 9:47 a.m.
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Highs days 3-7.

 Very chilly to cold air N.Plains/N.Rockies.  Very warm to near record warmth south/east of that.

By metmike - Oct. 4, 2018, 9:47 a.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

 Tale of 2 extremely opposite temperature regimes! Above average eastern 1/2(near records). Well below normal N.Plains/Rockies.....near record cold.

A slight shift in the location of the boundary between these extreme air masses will greatly change the temp forecast for areas close to the boundary.

Low Temperature Departures:

By metmike - Oct. 4, 2018, 9:48 a.m.
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Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:

Front between very warm and cold air during the entire period..................goes back and's location will vary with every forecast update. 

Potent storm/wave development possible along the front.

By metmike - Oct. 4, 2018, 9:49 a.m.
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Dew points.

 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!  

Higher dew points receding a bit but remaining Southeast 1/2 of the country. Extremely dry air N.Plains to Upper Midwest.

Current Dew Points

By metmike - Oct. 4, 2018, 9:52 a.m.
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Current Surface features:

Cold front pushing south and east is making more progress than predicted earlier this week. ........temporarily.

It will be going back north on Friday.

Current US Surface Weather Map

By metmike - Oct. 4, 2018, 9:52 a.m.
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By metmike - Oct. 4, 2018, 9:53 a.m.
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Satellite picture.

US Infrared Satellite Map

By metmike - Oct. 4, 2018, 9:53 a.m.
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Rains the past 24 hours

By metmike - Oct. 4, 2018, 9:54 a.m.
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You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"


By metmike - Oct. 4, 2018, 9:54 a.m.
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Soil moisture anomaly:

Too wet in a large area from one of our wettest Septembers in history......but it will get even wetter!

The 2nd map gets updated once a week.

By metmike - Oct. 4, 2018, 9:54 a.m.
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Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

Note how wet it's been over the past 60 days over eastern 2/3rds of the country!

By metmike - Oct. 4, 2018, 10 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Thursday. Less extreme than recent days. Low confidence period for me.......even for a low confidence period.

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Oct 19, 2018 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Oct. 4, 2018, 10:02 a.m.
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The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3-4.

 Strong upper level ridging Western Canada to downstream in the Midwest to East??

Heating degree days(from cold weather) are replacing cooling degree days(from hot weather) in October.

Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:

Precip below: