Excessive Rain threat

Elevated today in a very long, southwest to northeast corridor. Moves quickly southeast, on Wednesday.

Michael in the Southeast tomorrow and remnants into the Midatlantic on Thursday. 

Current Day 1 Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 Forecast

Day 3 forecast below

Severe Storm Risk.

The highest threat will be from damaging winds, especially if we get a squall line along the advancing cold front............for the next day+.

Michael in the Southeast/Midatlantic Wed/Thu.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
Current Day 2 Outlook
Current Day 3 Outlook
Current Day 4-8 Outlook

High Temperatures today and Wednesday.

Last of the heat for awhile.  Cold starts diving southeast, especially Wednesday. Temps late week will be 30 deg. F cooler in many places compared to today!!!!

Highs for days 3-7:

The chilly  air will be moderated but still feature temperatures 30 degrees colder than recent days along the Ohio River.............and stay chilly thru this particular period.

How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

 The extreme magnitude of the contrast between cold and warmth weakens as the cold moves southeast quickly and drains out the long lived warmth.

Low Temperature Departures:

Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:

Initial  strong cold front moves off the Florida Coast. Chilly Canadian high pressure moves in behind it.  Reinforcing cold front this weekend, with a wave in the S.Cornbelt. Even stronger and chillier Canadian High behind it. 

Higher dew points have surged northward to Southeast Canada. Extremely dry air in the N.Plains, will start surging south, then southeast, especially Wednesday.

Current Surface features:

Frontal zone defining incredible temp contrast. Low pressure/storm developing along front. The storm will move, north  up the front in the next day, then kick it southeast.

Michael showing up in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. 

https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Latest radar loop.

Action will shift southeast and accelerate on Wednesday after the low pressure/storm develops and moves well up the front.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Satellite picture.

Look at Michael!

Rains the past 24 hours

Heavy again along the front, especially in the S.Plains.

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

Soil moisture anomaly:

Too wet in a large area. The wet pattern is going to change soon!!!

The 2nd map gets updated once a week.

Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

Note how wet it's been over the past 60 days over eastern 2/3rds of the country!

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Tuesday.  More zonal, west to east flow,  less meridional/extreme. Mild to warm temperatures. Much drier pattern than recent days.

Possibility that this could morph into more of a dry, cool northwest flow pattern in the Midwest/East. It does look decidedly dry though.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Oct 24, 2018 00 UTC

The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3-4.

Strong Upper level ridge in NW Canada (to Central Canada?) Does it build eastward  and spread warmth to the Upper Midwest?

Very Dry weather in the Midwest to accelerate harvest.

Heating degree days(from cold weather) are replacing cooling degree days(from hot weather) in October.

Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:

Precip below:

National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

Huge pattern change. Mild/dried out Pacific air masses move zonally(west to east) across the US. MUCH MUCH drier. 

Initially very chilly in the Midsection but the cold air is flushed out during week 2(8-14 day period).  

The maps will be updated early this afternoon but will show the same thing.

Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability