For weather that effects the natural gas market(Cooling Degree Days in the Summer help gauge residential natural gas use because natural gas is used to generate electricity for air conditioning...........and now, to generate residential heating:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/14771/
Hurricane Michael:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/14717/
Natural Gas Intelligence closing comments:
November in Limbo as Traders Test Strength of Cold Snap; Spot Gas Strengthens
5:36 PM
After trading several cents higher early in the day, November natural gas futures stopped short of another surge Tuesday as the front month settled a mere one-tenth of a cent lower at $3.266
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Since the close, natural has is up sharply.
Gulf shut ins are only about 750MM cu ft/day - 1% of US production
Thanks Patrick!
Wednesday closing comments From Natural Gas Intelligence:
6:05 PM
Early-morning gains in Nymex natural gas futures were erased later Wednesday as strong cash prices drove buying interest early in the session, while slightly warmer risks in long-range weather models led to selling later in the day
Previous comment by Jim:
NG-new extended forecast
Started by Jim_M - Oct. 8, 2018, 4:04 p.m.
Brrrr..... That changed in a hurry. Cold moved more central and more of it.
Storage is Very Low for this time of year!!
Storage is below the bottom of the previous 5 year range and also almost 700 bcf below last year at this time!
This is why the temperature forecast matters....in the Summer/cooling season and Winter/heating season. We have a spike up of early season residential heating demand this week into next week.
EIA storage report from last Thursday. +98 bcf, a bit of a bearish surprise.
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (09/28/17) | 5-year average (2013-17) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 09/28/18 | 09/21/18 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 763 | 729 | 34 | 34 | 859 | -11.2 | 848 | -10.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 836 | 800 | 36 | 36 | 985 | -15.1 | 973 | -14.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 177 | 173 | 4 | 4 | 220 | -19.5 | 206 | -14.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 262 | 259 | 3 | 3 | 310 | -15.5 | 335 | -21.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 829 | 807 | 22 | 22 | 1,127 | -26.4 | 1,111 | -25.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 181 | 173 | 8 | 8 | 301 | -39.9 | 288 | -37.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 648 | 634 | 14 | 14 | 827 | -21.6 | 823 | -21.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 2,866 | 2,768 | 98 | 98 | 3,502 | -18.2 | 3,473 | -17.5 | |||||||||||||||||
These were the temperatures for the 7 day period in that report:
These are the temperatures that will be used for the next report which comes out this Thursday at 9:30 am.................the injection will be smaller.
Natural Gas price charts
We finally broke out above $3! Last Thursday, the EIA number was bearish though and we pulled back on Thu/Fri. The market opened higher on Sunday evening and built on those gains but has been very volatile.
Week 1 weather is very bullish with the first significant wave of residential heating demand(from chilly temps) since last Spring. Late week 2 temperatures might shift bearish as the recent extremes morph into mild weather across most of the country.............or we could have northwest flow and stay cool.
The charts below, as of Wednesday Evening don't have the prices correct for the last day.
| Natural gas 3 months |
Naturalgas 1 year below
Naturalgas 5 years below
| Naturalgas10years below
|