Natural Gas Tuesday
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Started by metmike - Oct. 9, 2018, 10:46 a.m.

For weather that effects the natural gas market(Cooling Degree Days in the Summer help gauge residential natural gas use because natural gas is used to generate electricity for air conditioning...........and now, to generate residential heating:

Hurricane Michael:

By metmike - Oct. 10, 2018, 12:21 a.m.
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Natural Gas Intelligence closing comments:


November in Limbo as Traders Test Strength of Cold Snap; Spot Gas Strengthens

     5:36 PM    

After trading several cents higher early in the day, November natural gas futures stopped short of another surge Tuesday as the front month settled a mere one-tenth of a cent lower at $3.266


Since the close, natural has is up sharply.

By patrick - Oct. 10, 2018, 1:13 p.m.
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Gulf shut ins are only about 750MM cu ft/day - 1% of US production

By metmike - Oct. 10, 2018, 9:15 p.m.
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Thanks Patrick!

Wednesday closing comments From Natural Gas Intelligence:

Volatile Day Ends with NatGas Futures Slightly Higher; Spot Gas Rallies After Canadian Pipe Explosion

     6:05 PM    

Early-morning gains in Nymex natural gas futures were erased later Wednesday as strong cash prices drove buying interest early in the session, while slightly warmer risks in long-range weather models led to selling later in the day

Previous comment by Jim:

                NG-new extended forecast            


                Started by Jim_M - Oct. 8, 2018, 4:04 p.m.            


Brrrr.....  That changed in a hurry.  Cold moved more central and more of it.  

By metmike - Oct. 10, 2018, 9:24 p.m.
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Storage is Very Low for this time of year!!

Storage is below the  bottom of the previous 5 year range and also almost 700 bcf below last year at this time!

This is why the temperature forecast  the Summer/cooling season and Winter/heating season. We have a spike up of early season residential heating demand  this week into next week.

Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range


            EIA storage report from last Thursday. +98 bcf, a bit of a bearish surprise.            


Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN
  Historical Comparisons
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
5-year average
Region09/28/1809/21/18net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East763  729  34  34   859  -11.2  848  -10.0  
Midwest836  800  36  36   985  -15.1  973  -14.1  
Mountain177  173  4  4   220  -19.5  206  -14.1  
Pacific262  259  3  3   310  -15.5  335  -21.8  
South Central829  807  22  22   1,127  -26.4  1,111  -25.4  
   Salt181  173  8  8   301  -39.9  288  -37.2  
   Nonsalt648  634  14  14   827  -21.6  823  -21.3  
Total2,866  2,768  98  98   3,502  -18.2  3,473  -17.5 



These were the temperatures for the 7 day period in that report:


These are the temperatures that will be used for the next report which comes out this Thursday at 9:30 am.................the injection will be smaller.



Natural Gas price charts

We finally broke out above $3! Last Thursday, the EIA number was bearish though and we pulled back on Thu/Fri. The market opened higher on Sunday evening and built on those gains but has been very volatile.

 Week 1 weather is very bullish with the first significant wave of residential heating demand(from chilly temps) since last Spring. Late week 2 temperatures might shift bearish as the recent extremes morph into mild weather across most of the country.............or we could have northwest flow and stay cool.

The charts below, as of Wednesday Evening don't have the prices correct for the last day.

Natural gas 3 months

Naturalgas 1 year below

Naturalgas 5 years below


Naturalgas10years below