KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, October 11, 2018
8:30 AM ET. September CPI
CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)
Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +1.9%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
CPI, Y/Y% (expected +2.4%; previous +2.7%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +2.3%; previous +2.2%)
8:30 AM ET. September Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 210K; previous 207K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -8K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1650000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -13K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2866B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +98B)
11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 403.964M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +7.975M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 235.221M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.459M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 136.131M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.75M)
Refinery Usage (previous 90.4%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.174M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.175M)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
12:00 PM ET. September Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
1:00 PM ET. SEC Open Meeting
2:00 PM ET. September Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, October 12, 2018
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1431.1K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1525.2K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 435.4K)
8:30 AM ET. September Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected +0.2%; previous -0.6%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.2%)
Petroleum Prices (previous -3.9%)
10:00 AM ET. October University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 100.0; previous 100.8)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 91.1)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 116.1)
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The December NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off October's high. Technology shares were among the biggest losers with today's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the February-October-rally crossing at 6898.35. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7536.48 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 7728.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is today's low crossing at 7027.25. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-October-rally crossing at 6898.35.
The December S&P 500 closed sharply lower for the fifth day in a row on Wednesday, which is its longest losing streak since November 2016. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 2763.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2910.83 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is September's high crossing at 2945.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 2763.80. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 2720.80.
The Dow closed sharply lower on Wednesday as rising bond yields triggered aggressive investor selling. Today's decline led to a close below the June-August-uptrend line and the 50-day moving average crossing at 26,001.40 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the decline off October's high, the 38% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 25,573.31 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 26,474.24 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 26,951.81. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at 27,000. First support is today's low crossing at 25,593.65. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 25,573.31.
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December T-bonds closed up 1/32's at 137-24.
December T-bonds closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 134-04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 139-24 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 138-22. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139-24. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 136-16. Second support is weekly support crossing at 134-04.
December T-notes closed up 70-points at 118-010.
December T-notes closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.163 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 114.192 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 118.061. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.163. First support is Monday's low crossing at 117.135. Second support is monthly support crossing at 114.192.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
November crude oil closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off October's high. November settled at its lowest in nearly two weeks. Crude oil could have also been pulled down as a risk-off sentiment fueled sharp losses in the stock market. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.34 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November renews the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.22 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 76.90. Second resistance isthe 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.22.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.34. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.31.
November heating oil closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 232.11 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November renews the rally off August's low, the November-2014 high crossing at 254.68 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 245.00. Second resistance is the November-2014 high crossing at 254.68. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 239.16. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 232.11.
November unleaded gas closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off October's high. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 204.91 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 197.65 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 209.98 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is October's high crossing at 215.00. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 217.77. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 197.65. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 194.82.
November Henry natural gas posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the aforementioned rally, the July-2015 high crossing at 3.457 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.042 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3.368. Second resistance is the July-2015 high crossing at 3.457. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.177. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.042.
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The December Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the trading range of the past five-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.58 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 96.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 95.84. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 96.45. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.58. Second support is September's low crossing at 93.39.
The December Euro closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, August's low crossing at 114.09 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 116.98 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 116.98 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 116.98. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 118.93. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 114.93. Second support is August's low crossing at 114.09.
The December British Pound closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends today's rally, September's high crossing at 1.3350 is the next upside target. closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.2963 would renew the decline off September's high. First resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3350. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3435. First support is September's low crossing at 1.2845. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.2735.
The December Swiss Franc closed steady to slightly higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, July's low crossing at 1.0082 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0322 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0190. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0322. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.0106. Second support is July's low crossing at 1.0082.
The December Canadian Dollar lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off October's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.98 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 76.56 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 78.72 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 78.36. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 78.72. First support is the reaction low crossing at 76.56. Second support is September's low crossing at 75.75.
The December Japanese Yen closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0890 tempering the near-term bearish outlook. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If December extends today's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0901 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0901. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0912. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.0877. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876.
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December gold closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1184.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 1167.10. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1220.70 are needed to renew the rally off August's low. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1220.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1244.60. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1184.30. Second support is August's low crossing at 1167.10.
December silver closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off October's high. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.402 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 14.950 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 14.950. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 15.070. First support is September's low crossing at 13.965. Second support is the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620.
December copper closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.59 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 288.85 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 288.85. Second resistance is the July-5th gap crossing at 293.10. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.59. Second support is August's low crossing at 257.45.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed down 2 1/2-cents at 3.62.
December corn closed lower on Wednesday as traders squared positions ahead of Thursday’s USDA WASDE report that could feature upward revisions of corn yields and ending stocks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 3.54 1/2 would temper the friendly outlook. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.74 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 3.69 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.74 3/4. First support is reaction low crossing at 3.54 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.42 1/2.
December wheat closed down 4 3/4-cents at 5.10 1/4.
December wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.36 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction crossing at 5.32 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.36 3/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 5.05 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 3 1/4-cents at 5.16 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 4.98 3/4 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.44 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.35 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.44. First support is October's low crossing at 5.06 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.98 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed down 1 3/4-cents at 5.91 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.95 1/2 would open the door for a possible test of the August 31st reaction high crossing at 6.02. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 5.72 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.95 1/2. Second resistance is the August 31st high crossing at 6.02. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 5.72. Second support is September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4.
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November soybeans closed down 10 3/4-cents at 8.52 1/4.
November soybeans closed lower on Wednesday in anticipation of USDA raising its estimates for this year’s domestic soybean production, average yields and ending stocks. The ongoing U.S.-China trade conflict continues to apply downward pressure on prices as well. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.48 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November resumes the rally off September's low, the reaction high crossing at 907 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 8.74 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.07. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.48 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 8.12 1/4.
December soybean meal closed down $1.60 at 316.20.
December soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 312.10 would signal that a double top with September's high was posted on Monday. If December resumes the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 289.50 is the next downside target. If December extends the rally off September's low, the reaction high crossing at 339.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 322.40. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 339.40. First support is September's low crossing at 301.60. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 289.50.
December soybean oil closed down 34 pts. at 28.92.
December soybean oil closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 30.53 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 30.01. Second resistance is the the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 30.53. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.70. Second support is September's low crossing at 27.13.
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December hogs closed down $0.63 at $55.95.
December hogs closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 54.52 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off August low, June's high crossing at 60.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 59.95. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 60.75. First support is the reaction low crossing at 54.52. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 53.69.
December cattle closed down $0.68 at 116.48.
December cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off October's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 118.27 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 119.75. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 122.88. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.40. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 113.80.
October Feeder cattle closed down $1.05 at $155.90.
October Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 153.44 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 158.18 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 159.58. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 159.90. First support is today's low crossing at 155.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 153.44.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 117.61 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
December cocoa closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.41 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off August's high, the December-2017 low crossing at 18.71 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off September's low. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the June 26th high crossing at 13.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.61 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.
December cotton closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 74.00 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!
You were right about the grains yesterday with accelerating harvest pressure looming ahead.