For weather that effects the natural gas market(Cooling Degree Days in the Summer help gauge residential natural gas use because natural gas is used to generate electricity for air conditioning...........and now, to generate residential heating:
Storage is Very Low for this time of year!!
Storage is below the bottom of the previous 5 year range and also almost 700 bcf below last year at this time!
This is why the temperature forecast matters....in the Summer/cooling season and Winter/heating season. We have a spike up of early season residential heating demand this week into next week.
EIA report +90 bcf
I thought it might be a bit lower(bearish to me)
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (10/05/17) | 5-year average (2013-17) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 10/05/18 | 09/28/18 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 790 | 763 | 27 | 27 | 881 | -10.3 | 869 | -9.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 871 | 836 | 35 | 35 | 1,019 | -14.5 | 1,004 | -13.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 180 | 177 | 3 | 3 | 223 | -19.3 | 210 | -14.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 262 | 262 | 0 | 0 | 314 | -16.6 | 340 | -22.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 854 | 829 | 25 | 25 | 1,146 | -25.5 | 1,139 | -25.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 191 | 181 | 10 | 10 | 309 | -38.2 | 300 | -36.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 663 | 648 | 15 | 15 | 836 | -20.7 | 840 | -21.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 2,956 | 2,866 | 90 | 90 | 3,583 | -17.5 | 3,563 | -17 | |||||||||||||||||
These are the temperatures that were used for that report.
Natural Gas price charts
We finally broke out above $3! Last Thursday, the EIA number was bearish though and we pulled back on Thu/Fri. The market opened higher on Sunday evening and built on those gains but has been very volatile. Earlier today, Thursday, we went down and tested those Sun Evening prices, which have been the lows for the week.
Week 1 weather is very bullish with chilly temps but we have traded that all week. Late week 2 temperatures might shift bearish as the recent extremes morph into mild weather across most of the country.............or we could have northwest flow and stay cool.
| Natural gas 3 months |
Naturalgas 1 year below
Naturalgas 5 years below
| Naturalgas10years below
|
Nothing is bearish until we catch up to last year. Year over year over year, storage trend is down and record supply isn't keeping up.
Natural gas may have been rescued today by a much colder late morning 12z GFS.
gfs_namer_384_200_wnd_ht | gfs_namer_384_500_vort_ht |
gfs_namer_384_1000_500_thick | gfs_namer_384_850_temp_ht |
Over half of the GFS ensembles support this:
