KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, October 22, 2018
8:30 AM ET. September CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.18)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.24)
Tuesday, October 23, 2018
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -3.5%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.8%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.8%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.8%)
10:00 AM ET. October Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 29)
Shipments Idx (previous 33)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.1M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.4M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.2M)
Wednesday, October 24, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 322.1)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -7.1%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 224.0)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -5.9%)
Refinance Idx (previous 838.1)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -9.0%)
9:00 AM ET. August U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9:45 AM ET. October US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 52.9)
9:45 AM ET. October US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 55.6)
10:00 AM ET. September New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (previous 629K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (previous +3.5%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 6.1)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 416.441M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +6.49M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 234.156M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.016M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 132.638M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.827M)
Refinery Usage (previous 88.8%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.96M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.137M)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book
Thursday, October 25, 2018
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 210K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -5K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1640000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -13K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 382.5K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 295.6K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 476.1K)
8:30 AM ET. September Advance Economic Indicators Report
8:30 AM ET. September Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous +4.5%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +2.6%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.5%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. September Pending Home Sales Index
Pending Home Sales (previous 104.2)
Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous -1.8%)
Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -2.3%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3037B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +81B)
11:00 AM ET. October Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 10)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 38)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 13)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 27)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, October 26, 2018
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Advance estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous +4.2%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +3.0%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.0%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.4%)
Real Final Sales 1st Est, Q/Q% (previous +5.4%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.1%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +3.8%)
10:00 AM ET. October University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 100.1)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 90.5)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.7%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 115.2)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was higher in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 6720.95 is the next downside target. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 20-day moving average crossing at 7381.18 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7381.18. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7469.13. First support is the 62% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 6898.35. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 6720.95.
The December S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 2720.80 is the next downside target. If December extends the rebound off October's low, the 20-day moving average crossing at 2851.99 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2787.70. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2851.99. First support is the 62% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 2720.80. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-September-rally rally crossing at 2672.69.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower price are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 134-04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 138-20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138-20. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 141-04. First support is October's low crossing at 136-16. Second support is monthly support crossing at 134-04.
December T-notes was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 114.192 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 118.145 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted and renew the rally off October's low. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 118.145. Second resistance is the September 28th reaction high crossing at 119.000. First support is October's low crossing at 117.135. Second support is monthly support crossing at 114.192.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: NovemberNymex crude oil was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If November extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 66.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.54 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.54. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 76.90. First support is September's low crossing at 66.67. Second support is August's low crossing at 63.48.
November heating oil was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 226.57 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 235.52 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 235.52. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 245.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 226.57. Second support is September's low crossing at 219.43.
November unleaded gas was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off October's high, August's low crossing at 184.02 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 199.31 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 202.28. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 215.00. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 188.03. Second support is August's low crossing at 184.02.
November Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.185 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November resumes the rally off September's low, the July-2015 high crossing at 3.457 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 3.368. Second resistance is the July-2015 high crossing at 3.457. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.185. Second support is the 50% retracement level of September-October-rally crossing at 3.058.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was slightly higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past five-months. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 96.45 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 94.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 95.84. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 96.45. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 94.47. Second support is September's low crossing at 93.39.
The December Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 116.78 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off September's high, August's low crossing at 114.09 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 116.78. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 118.93. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 114.83. Second support is August's low crossing at 114.09.
The December British Pound was slightly lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range trade in the overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower prices are possible near-term. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3059 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If December resumes the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 1.3350 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3350. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3435. First support is October's low crossing at 1.2963. Second support is September's low crossing at 1.2845.
The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off September's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, weekly support crossing at 1.0042 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0189 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0189. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0281. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0069. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.0042.
The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 75.75 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 77.51 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 77.51. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 78.35. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 76.48. Second support is September's low crossing at 75.75.
The December Japanese Yen was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0890 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0899 would open the door for additional gains near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0899. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0912. First support is October's low crossing at 0.0877. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was slightly lower overnight as it extends last-week's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1251.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1205.50 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 1236.90. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1251.30. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1184.30. Second support is August's low crossing at 1167.10.
December silver was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 14.950 would renew the rally off September's low. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 14.255 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 14.950. Second resistance is the August 28th reaction high crossing at 15.070. First support is the reaction low crossing at 14.255. Second support is September's low crossing at 13.965.
December copper was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-weeks. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the July 5th gap crossing at 293.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.81 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the July 5th gap crossing at 293.10. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-August-decline crossing at 296.46. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.81. Second support is September's low crossing at 258.00.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it consolidates some last-week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.67 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December resumes the aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.85 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 3.78 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.85 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.60 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.54 1/2.
December wheat was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past two-months. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-week's high, September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.25 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.25 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.49 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.05 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 1 1/2-cents at 5.16 1/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 4.98 3/4 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.32 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.32 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.35 3/4. First support is October's low crossing at 5.06 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.98 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible. If December extends last-week's decline, October's low crossing at 5.77 3/4 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 6.15 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 6.02 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 6.15. First support is October's low crossing at 5.77 3/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were steady to fractionally higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Multiple closes below the September-October uptrend line crossing near 8.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November resumes the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.07 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 8.92. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.07. First support is the aforementioned uptrend line crossing near 8.57. Second support is September's low crossing at 8.12 1/4.
December soybean meal was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, September's low crossing at 301.60 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.36 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 327.30. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.36 1/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at 312.50. Second support is September's low crossing at 301.60.
December soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the aforementioned rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 30.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is October's high crossing at 30.01. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 30.53. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.73. Second support is September's low crossing at 27.13.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
December hogs closed down $0.70 at $51.60.
December hogs closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off October's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the reaction low crossing at 50.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 58.33. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 59.95. First support is the reaction low crossing at 50.08. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 48.20.
December cattle closed down $0.40 at 116.77.
December cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.79 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.79 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 119.75. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 122.88. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.79. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 113.80.
November Feeder cattle closed down $0.33 at $154.10.
November Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remains neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 150.90. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 156.72 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 155.48. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 156.72. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 152.87. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 150.90.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed slightly higher on Friday as it extends the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 87% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 12.68 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
December cocoa closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off August's high, the December-2017 low crossing at 18.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the May-July downtrend line crossing near 21.97 are needed to confirm a low and trend change has taken place.
March sugar closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline crossing at 14.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.46 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
December cotton closed lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 74.00 is the next downside target. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.12 is the next upside target.
Thanks tallpine!