KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, October 26, 2018
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Advance estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous +4.2%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +3.0%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.0%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.4%)
Real Final Sales 1st Est, Q/Q% (previous +5.4%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.1%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +3.8%)
10:00 AM ET. October University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 100.1)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 90.5)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.7%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 115.2)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. Investors nervous as we head into the weekend due to ongoing concerns about slowing global growth, rising interest rates and concerns that they’ve already seen peak earnings growth for U.S. companies. Adding to investor's concerns are the results from two of the biggest tech-related companies. Amazon, which posted a record profit late Thursday, but sales disappointed, and its forecast for fourth-quarter sales was below analyst expectations. Google parent Alphabet Inc. declined by 4% on Thursday after posting better-than-forecast earnings but revenues were below expectations. Economic data may provide a distraction later today, with third-quarter gross domestic product expected just ahead of the open at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, followed by a consumer-sentiment index at 10 a.m. Eastern. Trade concerns continue to remain unnerving after U.S. officials indicated that trade talks with China won’t resume until Beijing comes up with solid proposals over forced technology transfers and other economic issues. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 6720.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7239.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7082.20. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7239.40. First support is the 75% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 6720.95. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 6559.68.
The December S&P 500 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 2628.96 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2805.39 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2743.87. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2805.39. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2649.40. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-September-rally rally crossing at 2628.96.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rally off October's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher price are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 140-30 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 137-15 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 139-16. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 140-28. First support is the reaction low crossing at 137.15. Second support is October's low crossing at 136-16.
December T-notes was higher in late-overnight trading as it extends the rally off October's low and is challenging resistance marked by the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.006. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 119.130 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.062 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.006. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 119.130. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.062. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 117.250.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: DecemberNymex crude oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, August's low crossing at 63.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 71.27 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 68.72. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 71.27. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 65.74. Second support is August's low crossing at 63.48.
December heating oil was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, September's low crossing at 219.63 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 234.44 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 234.44. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 245.41. First support is September's low crossing at 219.63. Second support is August's low crossing at 208.57.
December unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 172.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 196.72 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 187.68. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 196.72. First support is the overnight low crossing at 177.34. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 172.17.
December Henry natural gas was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 3.125 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.270 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 3.368. Second resistance is the July-2015 high crossing at 3.457. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 3.125. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.103.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low and has exceeded resistance marked by August's high crossing at 96.45. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at 96.87 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.43 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 96.59. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 96.87. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 95.65. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.42.
The December Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off September's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 113.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 115.55 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 116.78. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 118.93. First support is the overnight low crossing at 113.85. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 113.54.
The December British Pound was lower in late-overnight trading as it extends the decline off October's high. The low-range trade in the overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower prices are possible near-term. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, August's low crossing at 1.2735 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3082 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3350. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3435. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.2811. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.2735.
The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off September's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, weekly support crossing at 0.9984 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0130 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0130. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0273. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0025. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9984.
The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 75.75 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 77.18 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 77.18. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 77.51. First support is the overnight low crossing at 76.09. Second support is September's low crossing at 75.75.
The December Japanese Yen was slightly higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0891 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0897 would open the door for additional gains near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0897. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0912. First support is October's low crossing at 0.0877. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was higher overnight as it extends the rally off October's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1251.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1209.00 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1243.00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1251.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1231.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1209.00.
December silver was slightly higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 14.950 would mark an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while renewing the rally off September's low. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 14.255 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 14.950. Second resistance is the August 28th reaction high crossing at 15.070. First support is the reaction low crossing at 14.255. Second support is September's low crossing at 13.965.
December copper was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-weeks. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 273.32 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the July 5th gap crossing at 293.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 5th gap crossing at 293.10. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-August-decline crossing at 296.46. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 273.32. Second support is September's low crossing at 258.00.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. However, Thursday's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.63 3/4 confirms that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. If December extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.54 1/2 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.85 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 3.78 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.85 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.60 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.54 1/2.
December wheat was higher overnight as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-week's high, the December-2017 low crossing at 4.68 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.12 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.12. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.20 3/4. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 4.85 1/2. Second support is the December-2017 low crossing at 4.68 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 10 1/2-cents at 4.86 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday as it renewed the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the December-2017 low crossing at 4.78 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.15 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.15 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.27. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 4.85 1/4. Second support is the December-2017 low crossing at 4.78 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.87 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.87 1/2. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 6.02 1/4. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 5.69. Second support is September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If November extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 8.37 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.63 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is October's high crossing at 8.92. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.07. First support is the reaction low crossing at 8.37 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 8.12 1/4.
December soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, September's low crossing at 301.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.15 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is October's high crossing at 327.30. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.36 1/4. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 303.50. Second support is September's low crossing at 301.60.
December soybean oil was lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, September's low crossing at 27.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.22 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.22. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 30.01. First support is the overnight low crossing at 28.28. Second support is September's low crossing at 27.13.
Thanks tallpine!