INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Nov. 2, 2018, 7:59 a.m.

Friday, November 2, 2018  



8:30 AM ET. October U.S. Employment Report



                       Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +134K)



                       Unemployment Rate (previous 3.7%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 27.24)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.08)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.29%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +2.8%)



                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)



                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)



                       Government Payrolls (previous +13K)



                       Private Payroll (previous +121K)



                       Participation Rate (previous 62.7%)



                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg



8:30 AM ET. September U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services



                       Trade Balance (USD) (previous -53.24B)



                       Exports (USD) (previous 209.43B)



                       Exports, M/M% (previous -0.8%)



                       Imports (USD) (previous 262.67B)



                       Imports, M/M% (previous +0.6%)



9:45 AM ET. October ISM-NY Report on Business



                       Business Index (previous 72.5)



10:00 AM ET. September Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)



                       Total Orders, M/M% (previous +2.3%)



                       Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.3%)



                       Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.1%)



                       Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +4.5%)



                       Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +4.4%)



11:00 AM ET. October Global Manufacturing PMI



                       PMI, Mfg (previous 52.2)



The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7079.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 6559.68 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7079.11. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7380.10. First support is the 87% retracement level of the February low crossing at 6559.68. Second support is February's low crossing at 6385.25.



The December S&P 500 was higher overnight and is on its way for a fourth day of gains as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2752.26 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off October's high, April's low crossing at 2583.60 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2752.26. Second resistance is the October 17th reaction high crossing at 2823.00. First support is the 87% retracement level of the April-September-rally rally crossing at 2628.96. Second support is April's low crossing at 2583.60.   



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends the decline off Monday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 138-10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off October's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 140-21 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 139-28. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 140-09. First support is the reaction low crossing at 137.15. Second support is October's low crossing at 136-16.    



December T-notes was lower in overnight trading as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.098 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 119.130 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 119.060. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 119.130. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.098. Second support is the October 18th reaction low crossing at 117.250. 



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: DecemberNymex crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, June's low crossing at 62.32 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.84 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 66.17. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.84. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 63.11. Second support is June's low crossing at 62.32.    



December heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 208.29 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 230.25 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 230.25. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 245.41. First support is the overnight low crossing at 218.28. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 208.29.



December unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 162.09 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 188.08 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 179.55. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 188.08. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 168.89. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 162.09.  



December Henry natural gas was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 3.125 is the next downside target. Closes above Thursday's high crossing at 3.318 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 3.368. Second resistance is the July-2015 high crossing at 3.457. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 3.125. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.119.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight as it extends Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.69 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 96.98. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.69. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 94.96.    



The December Euro was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 115.14 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 113.54 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.15. Second resistance is the October 16th reaction high crossing at 116.78. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 113.54. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.15.  



The December British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range trade in the overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3066 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2632 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3066. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.3297. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.2722. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2632.



The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0090 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off September's high, weekly support crossing at 0.9921 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0090. Second resistance is the October 15th reaction high crossing at 1.0212. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 0.9946. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9921.



The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above last-Wednesday's highcrossing at 77.18 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 75.75 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 77.18. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 77.51. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 75.98. Second support is September's low crossing at 75.75.



The December Japanese Yen was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at 0.0877 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 0.0901 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 0.0901. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0912. First support is the reaction low crossing at 0.0885. Second support is October's low crossing at 0.0877.  



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was steady to higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1251.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1212.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1246.00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1251.30. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1212.10. Second support is October's low crossing at 1186.00.



December silver was slightly higher overnight as it extends October's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 14.950 would mark an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while renewing the rally off September's low. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 14.255 would confirm a downside trading range breakout while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 14.950. Second resistance is the August 28th reaction high crossing at 15.070. First support is the reaction low crossing at 14.255. Second support is September's low crossing at 13.965. 



December copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of its recent decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 275.44 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December extends the recent decline, September's low crossing at 258.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 287.10. Second resistance is the July 5th gap crossing at 293.10. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 264.25. Second support is September's low crossing at 258.00.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.85 3/4 is the next upside target. If December extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 3.54 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 3.78 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.85 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.60 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.54 1/2.



December wheat was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.09 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the December-2017 low crossing at 4.68 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.09 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.16. First support is October's low crossing at 4.85 1/2. Second support is the December-2017 low crossing at 4.68 1/4.         



December Kansas City Wheat closed up 8-cents at 5.01 1/4. 



December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.10 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the December-2017 low crossing at 4.78 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.10 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.19 1/2. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 4.84 1/2. Second support is the December-2017 low crossing at 4.78 1/4.



December Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.84 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4 is the next downside target. If First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.84 1/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 6.02 1/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 5.65 3/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans were higher overnight as it extends Thursday's sharp rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends this week's rebound, the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.07 is the next upside target. If November resumes the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 8.12 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 8.92. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.07. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 8.32 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 8.12 1/4.  



December soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends Thursday's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 313.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 301.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 327.30. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.36 1/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 302.00. Second support is September's low crossing at 301.60. 



December soybean oil was higher in overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.86 would confirm that a low has been posted. If December resumes this month's decline, September's low crossing at 27.13 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.86. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 30.01. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 27.75. Second support is September's low crossing at 27.13. 

Comments
By metmike - Nov. 2, 2018, 10:18 a.m.
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Thanks for the great stuff tallpine!