Weather Tuesday
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Started by metmike - Nov. 6, 2018, 10:29 a.m.

It's November 6th!  Just another day? Vote for somebody today! Seriously, don't just think about it for a it now.

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max. There will be some areas with Winter weather and extreme cold. The pattern is turning cold and dry.

The latest precip forecasts for the next week are below.  

Heavier amounts will be well south and east of the Cornbelt for a long time.

Day 1 below:

Day 2 below:

Day 3 below:

Days 4-5 below:

 Days 6-7 below:

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By metmike - Nov. 6, 2018, 10:30 a.m.
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By metmike - Nov. 6, 2018, 10:31 a.m.
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Here are the latest hazards across the country.   Green is flooding. Brown is wind, Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory. Purple/Pink/blue is cold/Winter weather.

See the rest at the link below.

                  Go to "hazards"                                                                                       


Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning




By metmike - Nov. 6, 2018, 10:33 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and Wednesday.

Warm to mild in much of the country today ............enjoy it while it lasts as the cold ooooooozes south for the rest of the week.



By metmike - Nov. 6, 2018, 10:34 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

COLD BLASTS with increasing intensity Northcentral  that spread southeast.........eventually reaching the Southeast this weekend.

By metmike - Nov. 6, 2018, 10:36 a.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

Cold blasts in the Plains/Midwest(that spread southeast) resulting in the area and magnitude of blue's increasing there(now VERY impressive), peaking in intensity just beyond this period!

Low Temperature Departures:

By metmike - Nov. 6, 2018, 10:39 a.m.
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Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:

Major cold air intrusions this week with reinforcing cold fronts ...........high confidence!!!

Cold Arctic High pressure settles in. Mostly dry and near record cold in the Midwest.

A significant Winter Storm that looked possible early in week 2 from last Friday, has turned  into a major threat for a possible Nor'easter, starting at the end of week 1 now.

By metmike - Nov. 6, 2018, 10:42 a.m.
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"Major Winter Storm on models early in week 2!"

That was the title of Saturdays page addressing this period......and we have been adjusting the placement of the storm since then.

On today's latest 6Z GFS operational model, the potential for the Nor'easter mentioned yesterday is even higher. Stay tuned for the latest: 


By metmike - Nov. 6, 2018, 10:45 a.m.
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Current Dew Points


Extremely dry air in the Plains to Midwest spreading southeast.

Current Dew Points



Latest radar loop

Showers exit stage east.

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop


Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)


Rains the past 24 hours



You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      


     Soil moisture anomaly:

Still  wet on this particular metric in an enormous area.  DRYING OUT in the Cornbelt for a long time(but very chilly air will mean drying rates will be minimal).


Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

Note how incredibly wet it's been over the past 60 days over eastern 2/3rds of the country! It's going to get even wetter, east and south!

By metmike - Nov. 6, 2018, 10:49 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Tuesday...after much more agreement yesterday, we have a bit less agreement today but the majority are very mild.  

Zonal, west to east flow and cold air masses trapped in Canada, far to the north.....on this model.


Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 21, 2018 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Nov. 6, 2018, 10:51 a.m.
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Here are the 0Z GFS ensemble, individual solutions at 360 hours(2 weeks).

Still significant disagreement and uncertainty for this model.

By metmike - Nov. 6, 2018, 10:55 a.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. 

For late week 2 here on Tuesday, both the AO and NAO forecasts, have even more spread than yesterday. However, the have both gone strongly towards the positive direction.  Both  of them are positive at 14 days, with some individual members VERY positive, others near zero. If the positive ones turn out right, late week 2 and beyond could be very mild. 

Just like weather maps having less skill in the later periods, the same is the case with the AO/NAO.

By metmike - Nov. 6, 2018, 10:55 a.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

 Updated early this afternoon. Big Chill shifts east!!!!

Warm West, shifts eastward.

Dry across the country.

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - Nov. 6, 2018, 9:09 p.m.
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Extreme weather days 3-7:

Cold in the Midsection to Rockies.

By metmike - Nov. 6, 2018, 9:11 p.m.
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Extreme weather days 8-14:

Last of the major cold outbreak(Midwest) for awhile?