I am not a chart person but I am a farmer and I know what it is like to have crop not sold and the price not exactly what I want for my projected profit
Much has been made about futures at close to 9.00 and cash at 7.00 give or take a bit
Now the 9.00 beans are what the traders are guessing beans are worth assuming the trade issues get re-solved quickly. The traders look at SA and their supply and price, so they attach a price. But, my guess is the trade issues with china will not be resolved and the futures price will slowly or maybe quickly lose value, as the traders realize it just isn't going to happen..
Even the diehards for next yr price will realize they need to exit their position. Only folks with a position will be those with sales and off set on the futures. Most others will eventually be short
Now to the 7.00 beans. That is what those beans are worth on the market today. But, we see beans piled on the ground and those beans need to be sold quickly. If not they will lose physical value and the quality soon turns to junk. If the producer does not sell soon, then they will sit there and rot. That is a sure fire way to think of that hope vs what ever is in that little ditty.
Beans in a tin can will retain value longer, but a yr at most for most beans in a bin is as long as they will last. Not many beans got binned at 10% for long term storage.
Bottom line and I have not bothered to post all the reasons due to length of post, price has no where to go but down.
If you don't believe me, then give me one good reason why beans would go up, other than return to normal sales with china which isn't going to happen any time soon, if ever.
Short the beans, have at least enough margin to ride out a 30 cent up move as we saw recently and you will make at least a dollar or two/contract
Export sales Monday.
Good for corn and beans:
Crop condition report:
Harvest close to average.
Winter wheat planting a bit behind in MO and KS