It's November 8th! Just another day? Do something nice for somebody today! Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it now.
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max. There will be some areas with Winter weather and extreme cold. The pattern is turning cold and dry.
Here are the latest hazards across the country. Green is flooding. Brown is wind, Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory. Purple/Pink/blue is cold/Winter weather.
See the rest at the link below.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
|Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning|
LOOK AT THE COLD COMING!
High Temperatures today and Friday.
Here come da cold! Still warm Southeast and Southwest.
Highs for days 3-7:
COLD BLASTS Northcentral that spread southeast.........eventually reaching the Southeast this weekend.
Coldest air starts shifting east next week!
How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?
Greatest cold anomalies shifting southeast from yesterdays maps from forecast progression of days out 1 more day.
Low Temperature Departures:
Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:
Major cold air intrusions this week with reinforcing cold fronts ...........high confidence!!!
Cold Arctic High pressure settles in. Mostly dry and near record cold in the Midwest.
Possible Nor'easter, early next week.
Latest on Possible Nor"easter from 6z operational GFS in 5 days:
| gfs_namer_132_200_wnd_ht|| gfs_namer_132_500_vort_ht|
| gfs_namer_132_1000_500_thick|| gfs_namer_132_850_temp_ht|
The latest precip forecasts for the next week are below.
Heavier amounts will be well south and east of the main Cornbelt.
Day 1 below:
Day 2 below:
Day 3 below:
Days 4-5 below:
Days 6-7 below:
7 Day Total precipitation below:
Current Dew Points
Extremely dry air in the Plains to Midwest to East Coast.
Latest radar loop
|Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)|
Rains the past 24 hours
You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
Soil moisture anomaly:
Still wet on this particular metric in an enormous area. DRYING OUT in the Cornbelt for a long time(but very chilly air will mean drying rates will be minimal).
Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
Note how incredibly wet it's been over the past 60 days over eastern 2/3rds of the country! It's going to get even wetter, east and south!
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average
End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Thursday....slightly more agreement on what looks like mild zonal flow.
Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 23, 2018 00 UTC
Here are the 0Z GFS ensemble, individual solutions at 360 hours(2 weeks).
Still some disagreement and uncertainty for this model.
The cold risk would be cross polar flow cold getting re established and bitter cold spreading into Canada............less threat of that today.
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them.
For late week 2 here on Thursday, both the AO and NAO forecasts, have much less spread than the last several days. They are both close to zero at 14 days, which lessnes the risk of major cold outbreaks.
These indices have been changing a great deal for the end of week 2 as of late.
Just like weather maps having less skill in the later periods, the same is the case with the AO/NAO.