High Temperatures today and Sunday.

Da cold is here!  Still warm Southwest.

Highs for days 3-7:

 
COLD BLASTS.

Coldest air starts receding later next week!

How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

 
Greatest cold anomalies continue to shift east. Moderating from the west from progression of days out 1 more day.

Low Temperature Departures:

Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:

Cold Arctic High pressure has settled in. with some reinforcing cold fronts.

Possible Nor'easter, early next week.

Latest 6z GFS operational model solution for potential Nor'easter early next week(84 hour map) 

gfs_namer_084_200_wnd_ht	gfs_namer_084_500_vort_ht
gfs_namer_084_1000_500_thick	gfs_namer_084_850_temp_ht

The latest precip forecasts for the next week are below.  

Heavier amounts will be well south and east of the Cornbelt.

Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112

Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

Winter Weather

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

Current Dew Points

Extraordinarily  dry Arctic air across the country.

Latest radar loop

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Rains the past 24 hours

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

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     Soil moisture anomaly:

Still  wet on this particular metric in an enormous area.  DRYING OUT in the Cornbelt for a long time(but very chilly air will mean drying rates will be minimal).

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Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Saturday.

Several members re instate cross polar flow(that brought down the current cold and have a pattern favorable for it to cross Canada.

Will it make is farther south?

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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 25, 2018 00 UTC

0z GFS ensembles below.

Southern stream trough in the West is showing up on a lot of solutions now. 

Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. 

For late week 2 here on Saturday,  both the AO and NAO forecasts have less spread.  They are both close to zero at 14 days, with the AO leaning slightly negative and the NAO looking a bit positive(deterrent for penetration of the cold to the East Coast) .

Just like weather maps having less skill in the later periods, the same is the case with the AO/NAO.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/15793/

National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

 Updated early this afternoon. Big Chill shifts east!!!!

Warm West, shifts eastward.

Dry across the country.

Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

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Temperature Probability